Sat, Aug 31 2024
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Nippert Stadium
Cincinnati, OH
·
Turf
·
40,000 cap
Towson✈ 422 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Cincinnati wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Cincinnati -33.5
O/U 56.5
ESPN Bet
Towson 2024 Schedule
Towson's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Towson at Cincinnati | +33.5L20–38 | 56.5 | L20–38 | O | Y |
Cincinnati 2024 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Cincinnati vs Towson | -33.5W38–20 | 56.5 | W38–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh | +2.5L27–28 | 62.5 | L27–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Cincinnati at Miami (OH) | -3.5W27–16 | 47.5 | W27–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Cincinnati vs Houston | -4.0W34–0 | 47.5 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Cincinnati at Texas Tech | +3.0L41–44 | 60.0 | L41–44 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Cincinnati at UCF | +2.0W19–13 | 58.0 | W19–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Cincinnati vs Arizona State | -5.5W24–14 | 51.0 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Cincinnati at Colorado | +6.0L23–34 | 57.0 | L23–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Cincinnati vs West Virginia | -5.5L24–31 | 54.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Cincinnati at Iowa State | +7.0L17–34 | 52.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Cincinnati at Kansas State | +7.5L15–41 | 54.5 | L15–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Cincinnati vs TCU | +2.5L13–20 | 58.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Towson Edge
Towson +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Cincinnati Edge
Cincinnati +30.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓