Sat, Nov 16 2024
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh, PA
·
Turf
·
68,400 cap
Clemson✈ 427 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Clemson
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Clemson entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Clemson wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Clemson wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Clemson -12
O/U 52.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Clemson
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Clemson 2024 Schedule
Clemson's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Clemson vs Georgia | +10.5L3–34 | 49.0 | L3–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Clemson vs App State | -13.5W66–20 | 53.5 | W66–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Clemson vs NC State | -17.0W59–35 | 44.0 | W59–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Clemson vs Stanford | -24.0W40–14 | 58.0 | W40–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Clemson at Florida State | -16.5W29–13 | 47.0 | W29–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Clemson at Wake Forest | -21.0W49–14 | 63.0 | W49–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Clemson vs Virginia | -20.0W48–31 | 57.5 | W48–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Clemson vs Louisville | -11.0L21–33 | 62.5 | L21–33 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Clemson at Virginia Tech | -6.5W24–14 | 54.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Clemson at Pittsburgh | -12.0W24–20 | 52.0 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Clemson vs The Citadel | -49.5W51–14 | 58.5 | W51–14 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Clemson vs South Carolina | -2.5L14–17 | 48.5 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 12/7 | Clemson vs SMU | +2.5W34–31 | 56.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/21 | Clemson at Texas | +13.5L24–38 | 49.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
Pittsburgh 2024 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Pittsburgh vs Kent State | -23.5W55–24 | 55.5 | W55–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Pittsburgh at Cincinnati | -2.5W28–27 | 62.5 | W28–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Pittsburgh vs West Virginia | +2.5W38–34 | 60.5 | W38–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Pittsburgh vs Youngstown State | -29.5W73–17 | 59.5 | W73–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Pittsburgh at North Carolina | -2.5W34–24 | 63.0 | W34–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Pittsburgh vs California | -3.5W17–15 | 57.5 | W17–15 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/24 | Pittsburgh vs Syracuse | -5.0W41–13 | 62.5 | W41–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Pittsburgh at SMU | +7.0L25–48 | 55.5 | L25–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Pittsburgh vs Virginia | -7.5L19–24 | 56.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Pittsburgh vs Clemson | +12.0L20–24 | 52.0 | L20–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Pittsburgh at Louisville | +7.0L9–37 | 57.0 | L9–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Pittsburgh at Boston College | +3.5L23–34 | 50.5 | L23–34 | O | N |
| Thu 12/26 | Pittsburgh vs Toledo | -6.5L46–48 | 48.5 | L46–48 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Clemson
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Clemson
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Clemson
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Clemson Edge
Clemson +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Clemson Edge
Clemson +12.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Pittsburgh
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Clemson
10.1 — 69.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Clemson won by 4
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Clemson with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Clemson
Dabo Swinney #1
170–43 (80%)
· Yr 16 at school
OC
Garrett Riley
Yr 2
#1
DC
Mickey Conn
Yr 3
#1
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
65–50 (57%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Kade Bell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Randy Bates
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓