Syracuse at Pittsburgh Week 9 College Football Matchup Syracuse at Pittsburgh Matchup - Week 9
Thu, Oct 24 2024 · Week 9 · 🏟 Acrisure Stadium Pittsburgh, PA · Turf · 68,400 cap
Syracuse✈ 268 miSame TZ
Away
13 41
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Syracuse
32
Pittsburgh
31
P&R Line Syracuse -1
P&R Total O/U 62
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Pittsburgh -5.0 · O/U 62.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Pittsburgh, while Game Control favors Syracuse. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Pittsburgh wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Syracuse wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Pittsburgh -5.0
O/U 62.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Pittsburgh · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Pittsburgh Coming off BYE 🛋 Syracuse Coming off BYE
Syracuse 2024 Schedule
Syracuse's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Syracuse vs Ohio-17.5W38–2247.5W38–22ON
Sat 9/7Syracuse vs Georgia Tech+2.5W31–2860.5W31–28UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 9/20Syracuse vs Stanford-9.5L24–2656.5L24–26UN
Sat 9/28Syracuse vs Holy Cross-31.5W42–1459.5W42–14UN
Fri 10/4Syracuse at UNLV+5.5W44–4155.5W44–41OY
Sat 10/12Syracuse at NC State-1.0W24–1751.5W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/24Syracuse at Pittsburgh+5.0L13–4162.5L13–41UN
Sat 11/2Syracuse vs Virginia Tech+3.5W38–3154.0W38–31OY
Sat 11/9Syracuse at Boston College+5.5L31–3751.5L31–37ON
Sat 11/16Syracuse at California+10.5W33–2558.0W33–25UY
Sat 11/23Syracuse vs UConn-10.0W31–2453.0W31–24ON
Sat 11/30Syracuse vs Miami+12.5W42–3865.5W42–38OY
Fri 12/27Syracuse vs Washington State-19.0W52–3558.5W52–35ON
Pittsburgh 2024 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Pittsburgh vs Kent State-23.5W55–2455.5W55–24OY
Sat 9/7Pittsburgh at Cincinnati-2.5W28–2762.5W28–27UN
Sat 9/14Pittsburgh vs West Virginia+2.5W38–3460.5W38–34OY
Sat 9/21Pittsburgh vs Youngstown State-29.5W73–1759.5W73–17OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Pittsburgh at North Carolina-2.5W34–2463.0W34–24UY
Sat 10/12Pittsburgh vs California-3.5W17–1557.5W17–15UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/24Pittsburgh vs Syracuse-5.0W41–1362.5W41–13UY
Sat 11/2Pittsburgh at SMU+7.0L25–4855.5L25–48ON
Sat 11/9Pittsburgh vs Virginia-7.5L19–2456.5L19–24UN
Sat 11/16Pittsburgh vs Clemson+12.0L20–2452.0L20–24UY
Sat 11/23Pittsburgh at Louisville+7.0L9–3757.0L9–37UN
Sat 11/30Pittsburgh at Boston College+3.5L23–3450.5L23–34ON
Thu 12/26Pittsburgh vs Toledo-6.5L46–4848.5L46–48ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Pittsburgh PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Syracuse #28
+0.366
Pittsburgh #91
+0.386
Pittsburgh Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Syracuse #18
+0.608
Pittsburgh #112
+0.477
Syracuse Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Syracuse #52
0.171
Pittsburgh #31
0.183
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Pittsburgh Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Syracuse #38
+7.904
Pittsburgh #49
+8.393
Pittsburgh Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Syracuse #14
+0.863
Pittsburgh #85
+0.851
Syracuse Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Syracuse #71
71.0
Pittsburgh #108
72.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Syracuse Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Pittsburgh Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Syracuse
-2.2
Pittsburgh
9.1
Offense Rating
Syracuse
16.0
Pittsburgh
19.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Syracuse
18.2
Pittsburgh
10.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Syracuse #4
1.60
Pittsburgh #6
2.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Syracuse #32
1.00
Pittsburgh #82
0.80
Pittsburgh +0.80
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Syracuse Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Syracuse #1
58.1
Pittsburgh #1
55.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Syracuse #54
23.6
Pittsburgh #86
26.0
Syracuse +2.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Pittsburgh
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Pittsburgh
93.8 — 3.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Pittsburgh won by 28
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Syracuse
Fran Brown #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mike Johnson Yr 1 #1
DC Elijah Robinson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
65–50 (57%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Kade Bell Yr 1 #1
DC Randy Bates Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself