Sat, Nov 23 2024
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Louisville, KY
·
Turf
·
55,000 cap
Pittsburgh✈ 343 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Pittsburgh,
while Game Control favors Louisville.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Pittsburgh wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Louisville wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Louisville -7
O/U 57.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Louisville
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Pittsburgh 2024 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Pittsburgh vs Kent State | -23.5W55–24 | 55.5 | W55–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Pittsburgh at Cincinnati | -2.5W28–27 | 62.5 | W28–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Pittsburgh vs West Virginia | +2.5W38–34 | 60.5 | W38–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Pittsburgh vs Youngstown State | -29.5W73–17 | 59.5 | W73–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Pittsburgh at North Carolina | -2.5W34–24 | 63.0 | W34–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Pittsburgh vs California | -3.5W17–15 | 57.5 | W17–15 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/24 | Pittsburgh vs Syracuse | -5.0W41–13 | 62.5 | W41–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Pittsburgh at SMU | +7.0L25–48 | 55.5 | L25–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Pittsburgh vs Virginia | -7.5L19–24 | 56.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Pittsburgh vs Clemson | +12.0L20–24 | 52.0 | L20–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Pittsburgh at Louisville | +7.0L9–37 | 57.0 | L9–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Pittsburgh at Boston College | +3.5L23–34 | 50.5 | L23–34 | O | N |
| Thu 12/26 | Pittsburgh vs Toledo | -6.5L46–48 | 48.5 | L46–48 | O | N |
Louisville 2024 Schedule
Louisville's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Louisville vs Austin Peay | -38.5W62–0 | 54.5 | W62–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Louisville vs Jacksonville State | -27.5W49–14 | 56.5 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Louisville vs Georgia Tech | -9.5W31–19 | 56.0 | W31–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Louisville at Notre Dame | +6.5L24–31 | 45.0 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Louisville vs SMU | -6.5L27–34 | 55.0 | L27–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Louisville at Virginia | -7.0W24–20 | 54.0 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Louisville vs Miami | +4.5L45–52 | 61.5 | L45–52 | O | N |
| Fri 10/25 | Louisville at Boston College | -7.0W31–27 | 54.0 | W31–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Louisville at Clemson | +11.0W33–21 | 62.5 | W33–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Louisville at Stanford | -21.0L35–38 | 57.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Louisville vs Pittsburgh | -7.0W37–9 | 57.0 | W37–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Louisville at Kentucky | -3.5W41–14 | 48.5 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Louisville vs Washington | +1.0W35–34 | 50.5 | W35–34 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisville
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Pittsburgh Edge
Pittsburgh +0.56
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +1.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisville
4 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Louisville
85.2 — 5.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Louisville won by 28
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
65–50 (57%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Kade Bell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Randy Bates
Yr 3
#1
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #1
10–4 (71%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Brian Brohm
Yr 2
#1
DC
Ron English
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓