James Madison at App State Week 13 College Football Matchup James Madison at App State Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Kidd Brewer Stadium Boone, NC · Turf · 24,050 cap
James Madison✈ 217 miSame TZ
20 34
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
James Madison
32
App State
25
P&R Line James Madison -7.5
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 90 High
Vegas James Madison -7.5 · O/U 57.5
Matchup Prediction
James Madison has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor James Madison entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
James Madison wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
James Madison wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
James Madison -7.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → James Madison · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 App State Coming off BYE 🚌 James Madison 2nd straight Road Game
James Madison 2024 Schedule
James Madison's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31James Madison at Charlotte-6.5W30–747.5W30–7UY
Sat 9/7James Madison vs Gardner-Webb-35.5W13–650.5W13–6UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21James Madison at North Carolina+10.0W70–5048.0W70–50OY
Sat 9/28James Madison vs Ball State-22.0W63–756.5W63–7OY
Sat 10/5James Madison at UL Monroe-16.5L19–2148.5L19–21UN
Thu 10/10James Madison vs Coastal Carolina-7.0W39–759.0W39–7UY
Sat 10/19James Madison at Georgia Southern-9.5L14–2858.5L14–28UN
Sat 10/26James Madison vs Southern Miss-24.0W32–1554.0W32–15UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9James Madison vs Georgia State-14.5W38–753.5W38–7UY
Sat 11/16James Madison at Old Dominion-1.5W35–3251.0W35–32OY
Sat 11/23James Madison at App State-7.5L20–3457.5L20–34UN
Sat 11/30James Madison vs Marshall-2.5L33–3552.5L33–35ON
Wed 12/18James Madison vs Western Kentucky-7.5W27–1750.5W27–17UY
App State 2024 Schedule
App State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31App State vs East Tennessee State-35.5W38–1058.5W38–10UN
Sat 9/7App State at Clemson+13.5L20–6653.5L20–66ON
Sat 9/14App State at East Carolina+0.5W21–1956.5W21–19UY
Thu 9/19App State vs South Alabama-8.0L14–4862.5L14–48UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5App State at Marshall+3.0L37–5256.5L37–52ON
Sat 10/12App State at Louisiana+10.0L24–3464.0L24–34UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26App State vs Georgia State-7.5W33–2659.0W33–26UN
Sat 11/2App State vs Old Dominion+2.5W28–2058.0W28–20UY
Thu 11/7App State at Coastal Carolina-1.5L24–3862.5L24–38UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23App State vs James Madison+7.5W34–2057.5W34–20UY
Sat 11/30App State at Georgia Southern+2.5L20–2960.5L20–29UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
James Madison PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
James Madison #88
+0.455
App State #57
+0.236
James Madison Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #99
+0.547
App State #41
+0.391
James Madison Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
James Madison #8
0.204
App State #132
0.116
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
James Madison Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #66
+8.708
App State #71
+7.538
James Madison Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
James Madison #61
+0.926
App State #60
+0.775
James Madison Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
James Madison #10
67.1
App State #104
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
James Madison Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
James Madison Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
James Madison
-1.3
App State
-9.7
Offense Rating
James Madison
13.9
App State
9.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
James Madison
15.1
App State
18.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? James Madison Edge
Avg sequences created per game
James Madison #33
1.22
App State #101
0.38
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #14
0.44
App State #116
2.13
James Madison +0.85
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? James Madison Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
James Madison #1
61.9
App State #1
25.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #10
20.5
App State #123
60.2
James Madison +36.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
App State
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
App State
47.6 — 39.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
App State won by 14
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on James Madison with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
James Madison
Bob Chesney #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Dean Kennedy Yr 1 #1
DC Lyle Hemphill Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
App State
Shawn Clark #1
35–18 (66%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Frank Ponce Yr 2 #1
DC Scott Sloan Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself