James Madison at Charlotte Week 1 College Football Matchup James Madison at Charlotte Matchup - Week 1
Sun, Sep 1 2024 · Week 1 · 🏟 Jerry Richardson Stadium Charlotte, NC · Turf · 15,314 cap
James Madison✈ 239 miSame TZ
30 7
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
James Madison
33
Charlotte
20
P&R Line James Madison -13
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 90 High
Vegas James Madison -6.5 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
James Madison -6.5
O/U 47.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → James Madison · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
James Madison 2024 Schedule
James Madison's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31James Madison at Charlotte-6.5W30–747.5W30–7UY
Sat 9/7James Madison vs Gardner-Webb-35.5W13–650.5W13–6UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21James Madison at North Carolina+10.0W70–5048.0W70–50OY
Sat 9/28James Madison vs Ball State-22.0W63–756.5W63–7OY
Sat 10/5James Madison at UL Monroe-16.5L19–2148.5L19–21UN
Thu 10/10James Madison vs Coastal Carolina-7.0W39–759.0W39–7UY
Sat 10/19James Madison at Georgia Southern-9.5L14–2858.5L14–28UN
Sat 10/26James Madison vs Southern Miss-24.0W32–1554.0W32–15UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9James Madison vs Georgia State-14.5W38–753.5W38–7UY
Sat 11/16James Madison at Old Dominion-1.5W35–3251.0W35–32OY
Sat 11/23James Madison at App State-7.5L20–3457.5L20–34UN
Sat 11/30James Madison vs Marshall-2.5L33–3552.5L33–35ON
Wed 12/18James Madison vs Western Kentucky-7.5W27–1750.5W27–17UY
Charlotte 2024 Schedule
Charlotte's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Charlotte vs James Madison+6.5L7–3047.5L7–30UN
Sat 9/7Charlotte at North Carolina+21.5L20–3847.5L20–38OY
Sat 9/14Charlotte vs Gardner-Webb-14.0W27–2646.5W27–26ON
Sat 9/21Charlotte at Indiana+28.5L14–5250.0L14–52ON
Sat 9/28Charlotte at Rice+4.0W21–2048.0W21–20UY
Sat 10/5Charlotte vs East Carolina+9.5W55–2447.5W55–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Charlotte at Navy+16.5L17–5157.5L17–51ON
Sat 10/26Charlotte at Memphis+17.0L28–3356.5L28–33OY
Thu 10/31Charlotte vs Tulane+14.5L3–3455.5L3–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Charlotte vs South Florida-1.5L24–5953.5L24–59ON
Sat 11/23Charlotte at Florida Atlantic-3.0W39–2749.5W39–27OY
Sat 11/30Charlotte vs UAB-1.5W29–2759.5W29–27UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
James Madison PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
James Madison #88
+0.412
Charlotte #116
+0.123
James Madison Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #99
+0.523
Charlotte #120
+0.188
James Madison Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
James Madison #8
0.204
Charlotte #87
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
James Madison Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #66
+7.799
Charlotte #70
+7.544
James Madison Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
James Madison #61
+0.888
Charlotte #122
+0.711
James Madison Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
James Madison #10
67.1
Charlotte #129
73.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
James Madison Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
James Madison Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
James Madison
-1.3
Charlotte
-17.8
Offense Rating
James Madison
13.9
Charlotte
9.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
James Madison
15.1
Charlotte
27.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? James Madison Edge
Avg sequences created per game
James Madison #33
0.00
Charlotte #51
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #14
0.00
Charlotte #80
0.00
James Madison +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? James Madison Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
James Madison #1
0.0
Charlotte #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #10
0.0
Charlotte #119
0.0
James Madison +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Charlotte, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
James Madison
Bob Chesney #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Dean Kennedy Yr 1 #1
DC Lyle Hemphill Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Charlotte
Biff Poggi #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Mike Miller Yr 2 #1
DC Ryan Osborn Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself