James Madison at Old Dominion Week 12 College Football Matchup James Madison at Old Dominion Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 16 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 Foreman Field Norfolk, VA · Turf · 20,118 cap
James Madison✈ 176 miSame TZ
35 32
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
James Madison
29
JMU -1.5
Old Dominion
25
P&R Line James Madison -4
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas James Madison -1.5 · O/U 51.0
Matchup Prediction
James Madison has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor James Madison entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
James Madison wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
James Madison wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
James Madison -1.5
O/U 51.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → James Madison · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Old Dominion Coming off BYE
James Madison 2024 Schedule
James Madison's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31James Madison at Charlotte-6.5W30–747.5W30–7UY
Sat 9/7James Madison vs Gardner-Webb-35.5W13–650.5W13–6UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21James Madison at North Carolina+10.0W70–5048.0W70–50OY
Sat 9/28James Madison vs Ball State-22.0W63–756.5W63–7OY
Sat 10/5James Madison at UL Monroe-16.5L19–2148.5L19–21UN
Thu 10/10James Madison vs Coastal Carolina-7.0W39–759.0W39–7UY
Sat 10/19James Madison at Georgia Southern-9.5L14–2858.5L14–28UN
Sat 10/26James Madison vs Southern Miss-24.0W32–1554.0W32–15UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9James Madison vs Georgia State-14.5W38–753.5W38–7UY
Sat 11/16James Madison at Old Dominion-1.5W35–3251.0W35–32OY
Sat 11/23James Madison at App State-7.5L20–3457.5L20–34UN
Sat 11/30James Madison vs Marshall-2.5L33–3552.5L33–35ON
Wed 12/18James Madison vs Western Kentucky-7.5W27–1750.5W27–17UY
Old Dominion 2024 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Old Dominion at South Carolina+20.5L19–2349.5L19–23UY
Sat 9/7Old Dominion vs East Carolina-1.5L14–2053.5L14–20UN
Sat 9/14Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech+15.5L17–3747.5L17–37ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Old Dominion at Bowling Green+11.0W30–2751.5W30–27OY
Sat 10/5Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina+4.0L37–4551.5L37–45ON
Sat 10/12Old Dominion at Georgia State+3.0W21–1453.0W21–14UY
Sat 10/19Old Dominion vs Texas State+10.5W24–1460.0W24–14UY
Thu 10/24Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern+1.0W47–1952.0W47–19OY
Sat 11/2Old Dominion at App State-2.5L20–2858.0L20–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Old Dominion vs James Madison+1.5L32–3551.0L32–35ON
Sat 11/23Old Dominion vs Marshall-3.0L35–4251.0L35–42ON
Sat 11/30Old Dominion at Arkansas State-5.5W40–3258.5W40–32OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
James Madison PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
James Madison #88
+0.329
Old Dominion #47
+0.250
James Madison Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #99
+0.464
Old Dominion #61
+0.341
James Madison Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
James Madison #8
0.204
Old Dominion #68
0.160
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
James Madison Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #66
+7.570
Old Dominion #6
+8.394
Old Dominion Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
James Madison #61
+0.824
Old Dominion #71
+0.764
James Madison Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
James Madison #10
67.1
Old Dominion #108
72.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
James Madison Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Old Dominion Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
James Madison
-1.2
Old Dominion
-0.6
Offense Rating
James Madison
13.9
Old Dominion
13.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
James Madison
15.1
Old Dominion
14.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? James Madison Edge
Avg sequences created per game
James Madison #33
1.25
Old Dominion #32
1.22
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #14
0.38
Old Dominion #31
0.56
James Madison +0.03
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? James Madison Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
James Madison #1
63.3
Old Dominion #1
41.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #10
20.2
Old Dominion #71
37.5
James Madison +21.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
James Madison
22.9 — 49.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
James Madison won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on James Madison with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
James Madison
Bob Chesney #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Dean Kennedy Yr 1 #1
DC Lyle Hemphill Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
15–23 (40%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Kevin Decker Yr 2 #1
DC Blake Seiler Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself