Sat, Nov 16 2024
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Foreman Field
Norfolk, VA
·
Turf
·
20,118 cap
James Madison✈ 176 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
James Madison
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
James Madison entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
James Madison wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
James Madison wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
James Madison -1.5
O/U 51.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → James Madison
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
James Madison 2024 Schedule
James Madison's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | James Madison at Charlotte | -6.5W30–7 | 47.5 | W30–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | James Madison vs Gardner-Webb | -35.5W13–6 | 50.5 | W13–6 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | James Madison at North Carolina | +10.0W70–50 | 48.0 | W70–50 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | James Madison vs Ball State | -22.0W63–7 | 56.5 | W63–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | James Madison at UL Monroe | -16.5L19–21 | 48.5 | L19–21 | U | N |
| Thu 10/10 | James Madison vs Coastal Carolina | -7.0W39–7 | 59.0 | W39–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | James Madison at Georgia Southern | -9.5L14–28 | 58.5 | L14–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | James Madison vs Southern Miss | -24.0W32–15 | 54.0 | W32–15 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | James Madison vs Georgia State | -14.5W38–7 | 53.5 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | James Madison at Old Dominion | -1.5W35–32 | 51.0 | W35–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | James Madison at App State | -7.5L20–34 | 57.5 | L20–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | James Madison vs Marshall | -2.5L33–35 | 52.5 | L33–35 | O | N |
| Wed 12/18 | James Madison vs Western Kentucky | -7.5W27–17 | 50.5 | W27–17 | U | Y |
Old Dominion 2024 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Old Dominion at South Carolina | +20.5L19–23 | 49.5 | L19–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Old Dominion vs East Carolina | -1.5L14–20 | 53.5 | L14–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech | +15.5L17–37 | 47.5 | L17–37 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Old Dominion at Bowling Green | +11.0W30–27 | 51.5 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina | +4.0L37–45 | 51.5 | L37–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Old Dominion at Georgia State | +3.0W21–14 | 53.0 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Old Dominion vs Texas State | +10.5W24–14 | 60.0 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/24 | Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern | +1.0W47–19 | 52.0 | W47–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Old Dominion at App State | -2.5L20–28 | 58.0 | L20–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Old Dominion vs James Madison | +1.5L32–35 | 51.0 | L32–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Old Dominion vs Marshall | -3.0L35–42 | 51.0 | L35–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Old Dominion at Arkansas State | -5.5W40–32 | 58.5 | W40–32 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
James Madison Edge
James Madison +0.03
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
James Madison Edge
James Madison +21.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
James Madison
22.9 — 49.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
James Madison won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on James Madison with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
James Madison
Bob Chesney #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Dean Kennedy
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lyle Hemphill
Yr 1
#1
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
15–23 (40%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Kevin Decker
Yr 2
#1
DC
Blake Seiler
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

