Sat, Sep 21 2024
·
Week 4
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🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Hadley, MA
·
Turf
·
17,000 cap
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Massachusetts wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Massachusetts -19.5
O/U 52.0
DraftKings
Central Connecticut 2024 Schedule
Central Connecticut's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Central Connecticut at Central Michigan | +33.5L10–66 | 54.5 | L10–66 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Central Connecticut at Massachusetts | +19.5L31–35 | 52.0 | L31–35 | O | Y |
Massachusetts 2024 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan | -2.5L14–28 | 49.0 | L14–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Massachusetts at Toledo | +17.5L23–38 | 50.5 | L23–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Massachusetts at Buffalo | +3.5L3–34 | 45.5 | L3–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut | -19.5W35–31 | 52.0 | W35–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Massachusetts at Miami (OH) | +15.5L20–23 | 44.5 | L20–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Massachusetts at Northern Illinois | +14.0L20–34 | 41.0 | L20–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Massachusetts vs Missouri | +27.0L3–45 | 54.0 | L3–45 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Massachusetts vs Wagner | -23.0W35–7 | 48.0 | W35–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Massachusetts at Mississippi State | +19.5L20–45 | 59.5 | L20–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Massachusetts vs Liberty | +17.0L34–35 | 53.0 | L34–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Massachusetts at Georgia | +42.5L21–59 | 55.5 | L21–59 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Massachusetts vs UConn | +9.5L42–47 | 49.5 | L42–47 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Central Connecticut Edge
Central Connecticut +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Massachusetts Edge
Massachusetts +19.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓