Liberty at Massachusetts Week 12 College Football Matchup Liberty at Massachusetts Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 16 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium Hadley, MA · Turf · 17,000 cap
Liberty✈ 494 miSame TZ
Away
35 34
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Liberty
36
Massachusetts
19
P&R Line Liberty -17
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Liberty -17 · O/U 53.0
Matchup Prediction
Liberty has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Liberty entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Liberty wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Liberty wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Liberty -17
O/U 53.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Liberty · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Massachusetts Coming off BYE 🚌 Liberty 2nd straight Road Game
Liberty 2024 Schedule
Liberty's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Liberty vs Campbell-41.5W41–2458.5W41–24ON
Sat 9/7Liberty at New Mexico State-22.5W30–2454.5W30–24UN
Sat 9/14Liberty vs UTEP-23.5W28–1057.5W28–10UN
Sat 9/21Liberty vs East Carolina-7.5W35–2455.0W35–24OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/8Liberty vs Florida International-15.5W31–2456.0W31–24UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/23Liberty at Kennesaw State-27.0L24–2748.0L24–27ON
Wed 10/30Liberty vs Jacksonville State-2.5L21–3164.0L21–31UN
Sat 11/9Liberty at Middle Tennessee-12.5W37–1754.5W37–17UY
Sat 11/16Liberty at Massachusetts-17.0W35–3453.0W35–34ON
Sat 11/23Liberty vs Western Kentucky-1.0W38–2156.5W38–21OY
Fri 11/29Liberty at Sam Houston-2.5L18–2047.5L18–20UN
Sat 1/4Liberty vs Buffalo+4.5L7–2650.5L7–26UN
Massachusetts 2024 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan-2.5L14–2849.0L14–28UN
Sat 9/7Massachusetts at Toledo+17.5L23–3850.5L23–38OY
Sat 9/14Massachusetts at Buffalo+3.5L3–3445.5L3–34UN
Sat 9/21Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut-19.5W35–3152.0W35–31ON
Sat 9/28Massachusetts at Miami (OH)+15.5L20–2344.5L20–23UY
Sat 10/5Massachusetts at Northern Illinois+14.0L20–3441.0L20–34OY
Sat 10/12Massachusetts vs Missouri+27.0L3–4554.0L3–45UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26Massachusetts vs Wagner-23.0W35–748.0W35–7UY
Sat 11/2Massachusetts at Mississippi State+19.5L20–4559.5L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Massachusetts vs Liberty+17.0L34–3553.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/23Massachusetts at Georgia+42.5L21–5955.5L21–59OY
Sat 11/30Massachusetts vs UConn+9.5L42–4749.5L42–47OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Liberty
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Liberty
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Liberty #24
+0.514
Massachusetts #69
+0.286
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #56
+0.569
Massachusetts #81
+0.437
Liberty Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Liberty #71
0.158
Massachusetts #106
0.140
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Liberty Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #43
+8.867
Massachusetts #89
+7.413
Liberty Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Liberty #7
+0.963
Massachusetts #94
+0.803
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Liberty #81
71.5
Massachusetts #131
74.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Liberty Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Liberty Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Liberty
-2.9
Massachusetts
-27.8
Offense Rating
Liberty
15.1
Massachusetts
1.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Liberty
18.0
Massachusetts
29.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Liberty Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Liberty #23
1.00
Massachusetts #103
0.57
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #41
1.00
Massachusetts #124
1.71
Liberty +0.43
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Liberty Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Liberty #1
37.3
Massachusetts #1
26.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #102
40.3
Massachusetts #115
54.6
Liberty +11.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Massachusetts
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Massachusetts
58.0 — 18.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Liberty won by 1
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Liberty. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
13–1 (93%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 2 #1
DC Jack Curtis Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Massachusetts
Don Brown #1
4–20 (17%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Shane Montgomery Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Dudzinski Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself