Massachusetts at Toledo Week 2 College Football Matchup Massachusetts at Toledo Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 7 2024 · Week 2 · 🏟 Glass Bowl Toledo, OH · Turf · 26,248 cap
Massachusetts✈ 570 miSame TZ
23 38
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Massachusetts
19
UMASS +17.5
Toledo
34
P&R Line Toledo -15.5
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Toledo -17.5 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
76%
Toledo wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Toledo -17.5
O/U 50.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Toledo · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Toledo 2nd straight Home Game
Massachusetts 2024 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan-2.5L14–2849.0L14–28UN
Sat 9/7Massachusetts at Toledo+17.5L23–3850.5L23–38OY
Sat 9/14Massachusetts at Buffalo+3.5L3–3445.5L3–34UN
Sat 9/21Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut-19.5W35–3152.0W35–31ON
Sat 9/28Massachusetts at Miami (OH)+15.5L20–2344.5L20–23UY
Sat 10/5Massachusetts at Northern Illinois+14.0L20–3441.0L20–34OY
Sat 10/12Massachusetts vs Missouri+27.0L3–4554.0L3–45UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26Massachusetts vs Wagner-23.0W35–748.0W35–7UY
Sat 11/2Massachusetts at Mississippi State+19.5L20–4559.5L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Massachusetts vs Liberty+17.0L34–3553.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/23Massachusetts at Georgia+42.5L21–5955.5L21–59OY
Sat 11/30Massachusetts vs UConn+9.5L42–4749.5L42–47OY
Toledo 2024 Schedule
Toledo's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Toledo vs Duquesne-27.5W49–1053.5W49–10OY
Sat 9/7Toledo vs Massachusetts-17.5W38–2350.5W38–23ON
Sat 9/14Toledo at Mississippi State+10.5W41–1756.5W41–17OY
Sat 9/21Toledo at Western Kentucky-2.0L21–2660.5L21–26UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Toledo vs Miami (OH)-4.5W30–2044.0W30–20OY
Sat 10/12Toledo at Buffalo-10.5L15–3044.5L15–30ON
Sat 10/19Toledo at Northern Illinois+3.0W13–642.5W13–6UY
Sat 10/26Toledo vs Bowling Green-1.5L26–4147.5L26–41ON
Sat 11/2Toledo at Eastern Michigan-10.0W29–2854.5W29–28ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/12Toledo vs Central Michigan-15.0W37–1052.5W37–10UY
Wed 11/20Toledo vs Ohio-1.5L7–2447.0L7–24UN
Tue 11/26Toledo at Akron-9.5L14–2150.5L14–21UN
Thu 12/26Toledo vs Pittsburgh+6.5W48–4648.5W48–46OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Toledo PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Toledo
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Toledo
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Toledo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Massachusetts #69
+0.279
Toledo #111
+0.364
Toledo Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #81
+0.314
Toledo #67
+0.555
Toledo Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #106
0.140
Toledo #28
0.185
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Toledo Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Massachusetts #89
+7.598
Toledo #99
+8.205
Toledo Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Massachusetts #94
+0.806
Toledo #95
+0.871
Toledo Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Massachusetts #131
74.6
Toledo #19
68.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Toledo Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Toledo Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Massachusetts
-27.8
Toledo
-0.1
Offense Rating
Massachusetts
1.1
Toledo
14.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Massachusetts
29.1
Toledo
14.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Massachusetts Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Massachusetts #103
0.00
Toledo #86
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Massachusetts #124
2.00
Toledo #68
0.00
Massachusetts +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Toledo Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Massachusetts #1
9.6
Toledo #1
90.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Massachusetts #115
74.0
Toledo #44
5.0
Toledo +81.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Toledo with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Massachusetts
Don Brown #1
4–20 (17%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Shane Montgomery Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Dudzinski Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Toledo
Jason Candle #1
65–35 (65%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Mike Hallett Yr 3 #1
DC Vince Kehres Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself