Sat, Aug 31 2024
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Hadley, MA
·
Turf
·
17,000 cap
Eastern Michigan✈ 567 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Massachusetts -2.5
O/U 49.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Eastern Michigan 2024 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts | +2.5W28–14 | 49.0 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Eastern Michigan at Washington | +25.0L9–30 | 48.5 | L9–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Eastern Michigan vs Jacksonville State | +2.5W37–34 | 53.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Eastern Michigan vs St. Francis (PA) | -25.5W36–0 | 45.5 | W36–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Eastern Michigan at Kent State | -14.0W52–33 | 46.0 | W52–33 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Eastern Michigan vs Miami (OH) | +3.0L14–38 | 45.5 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan | -3.5W38–34 | 52.5 | W38–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Eastern Michigan at Akron | -2.5L21–25 | 50.5 | L21–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Eastern Michigan vs Toledo | +10.0L28–29 | 54.5 | L28–29 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/13 | Eastern Michigan at Ohio | +10.5L10–35 | 51.5 | L10–35 | U | N |
| Wed 11/20 | Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo | -1.0L20–37 | 53.5 | L20–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan | +6.5L18–26 | 56.5 | L18–26 | U | N |
Massachusetts 2024 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan | -2.5L14–28 | 49.0 | L14–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Massachusetts at Toledo | +17.5L23–38 | 50.5 | L23–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Massachusetts at Buffalo | +3.5L3–34 | 45.5 | L3–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut | -19.5W35–31 | 52.0 | W35–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Massachusetts at Miami (OH) | +15.5L20–23 | 44.5 | L20–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Massachusetts at Northern Illinois | +14.0L20–34 | 41.0 | L20–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Massachusetts vs Missouri | +27.0L3–45 | 54.0 | L3–45 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Massachusetts vs Wagner | -23.0W35–7 | 48.0 | W35–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Massachusetts at Mississippi State | +19.5L20–45 | 59.5 | L20–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Massachusetts vs Liberty | +17.0L34–35 | 53.0 | L34–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Massachusetts at Georgia | +42.5L21–59 | 55.5 | L21–59 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Massachusetts vs UConn | +9.5L42–47 | 49.5 | L42–47 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Eastern Michigan Edge
Eastern Michigan +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Eastern Michigan Edge
Eastern Michigan +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Massachusetts, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
52–68 (43%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Mike Piatkowski
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ben Needham
Yr 1
#1
Massachusetts
Don Brown #1
4–20 (17%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Shane Montgomery
Yr 1
#1
DC
Keith Dudzinski
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

