Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts Week 1 College Football Matchup Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Aug 31 2024 · Week 1 · 🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium Hadley, MA · Turf · 17,000 cap
Eastern Michigan✈ 567 miSame TZ
28 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Eastern Michigan
27
EMU +2.5
Massachusetts
26
P&R Line Eastern Michigan -1.5
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Massachusetts -2.5 · O/U 49.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Massachusetts -2.5
O/U 49.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Eastern Michigan 2024 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts+2.5W28–1449.0W28–14UY
Sat 9/7Eastern Michigan at Washington+25.0L9–3048.5L9–30UY
Sat 9/14Eastern Michigan vs Jacksonville State+2.5W37–3453.5W37–34OY
Sat 9/21Eastern Michigan vs St. Francis (PA)-25.5W36–045.5W36–0UY
Sat 9/28Eastern Michigan at Kent State-14.0W52–3346.0W52–33OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Eastern Michigan vs Miami (OH)+3.0L14–3845.5L14–38ON
Sat 10/19Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan-3.5W38–3452.5W38–34OY
Sat 10/26Eastern Michigan at Akron-2.5L21–2550.5L21–25UN
Sat 11/2Eastern Michigan vs Toledo+10.0L28–2954.5L28–29OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/13Eastern Michigan at Ohio+10.5L10–3551.5L10–35UN
Wed 11/20Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo-1.0L20–3753.5L20–37ON
Sat 11/30Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan+6.5L18–2656.5L18–26UN
Massachusetts 2024 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan-2.5L14–2849.0L14–28UN
Sat 9/7Massachusetts at Toledo+17.5L23–3850.5L23–38OY
Sat 9/14Massachusetts at Buffalo+3.5L3–3445.5L3–34UN
Sat 9/21Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut-19.5W35–3152.0W35–31ON
Sat 9/28Massachusetts at Miami (OH)+15.5L20–2344.5L20–23UY
Sat 10/5Massachusetts at Northern Illinois+14.0L20–3441.0L20–34OY
Sat 10/12Massachusetts vs Missouri+27.0L3–4554.0L3–45UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26Massachusetts vs Wagner-23.0W35–748.0W35–7UY
Sat 11/2Massachusetts at Mississippi State+19.5L20–4559.5L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Massachusetts vs Liberty+17.0L34–3553.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/23Massachusetts at Georgia+42.5L21–5955.5L21–59OY
Sat 11/30Massachusetts vs UConn+9.5L42–4749.5L42–47OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Massachusetts PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Eastern Michigan #117
+0.343
Massachusetts #69
+0.380
Massachusetts Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan #105
+0.452
Massachusetts #81
+0.591
Massachusetts Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan #24
0.187
Massachusetts #106
0.140
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Eastern Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan #105
+8.132
Massachusetts #89
+7.216
Eastern Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Eastern Michigan #74
+0.886
Massachusetts #94
+0.858
Eastern Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Eastern Michigan #68
70.8
Massachusetts #131
74.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Eastern Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Eastern Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Eastern Michigan
-8.5
Massachusetts
-27.8
Offense Rating
Eastern Michigan
10.2
Massachusetts
1.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Eastern Michigan
18.7
Massachusetts
29.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Eastern Michigan #67
0.00
Massachusetts #103
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Eastern Michigan #55
0.00
Massachusetts #124
0.00
Eastern Michigan +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Eastern Michigan #1
0.0
Massachusetts #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Eastern Michigan #92
0.0
Massachusetts #115
0.0
Eastern Michigan +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Massachusetts, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
52–68 (43%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Mike Piatkowski Yr 1 #1
DC Ben Needham Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Massachusetts
Don Brown #1
4–20 (17%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Shane Montgomery Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Dudzinski Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself