UConn at Massachusetts Week 14 College Football Matchup UConn at Massachusetts Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 30 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium Hadley, MA · Turf · 17,000 cap
Away
47 42
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UConn
35
CONN -9.5
Massachusetts
20
P&R Line UConn -15
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 90 High
Vegas UConn -9.5 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
UConn has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor UConn entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
UConn wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
UConn wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UConn -9.5
O/U 49.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UConn · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 UConn 3rd straight Road Game
UConn 2024 Schedule
UConn's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UConn at Maryland+19.0L7–5045.5L7–50ON
Sat 9/7UConn vs Merrimack-14.5W63–1744.5W63–17OY
Sat 9/14UConn at Duke+17.5L21–2646.5L21–26OY
Sat 9/21UConn vs Florida Atlantic-1.0W48–1446.0W48–14OY
Sat 9/28UConn vs Buffalo-6.0W47–344.5W47–3OY
Sat 10/5UConn vs Temple-17.5W29–2049.0W29–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19UConn vs Wake Forest+2.5L20–2355.5L20–23UN
Sat 10/26UConn vs Rice-6.5W17–1047.0W17–10UY
Fri 11/1UConn vs Georgia State-7.0W34–2748.0W34–27ON
Sat 11/9UConn at UAB-7.5W31–2354.0W31–23UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23UConn at Syracuse+10.0L24–3153.0L24–31OY
Sat 11/30UConn at Massachusetts-9.5W47–4249.5W47–42ON
Sat 12/28UConn vs North Carolina+2.0W27–1453.5W27–14UY
Massachusetts 2024 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan-2.5L14–2849.0L14–28UN
Sat 9/7Massachusetts at Toledo+17.5L23–3850.5L23–38OY
Sat 9/14Massachusetts at Buffalo+3.5L3–3445.5L3–34UN
Sat 9/21Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut-19.5W35–3152.0W35–31ON
Sat 9/28Massachusetts at Miami (OH)+15.5L20–2344.5L20–23UY
Sat 10/5Massachusetts at Northern Illinois+14.0L20–3441.0L20–34OY
Sat 10/12Massachusetts vs Missouri+27.0L3–4554.0L3–45UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26Massachusetts vs Wagner-23.0W35–748.0W35–7UY
Sat 11/2Massachusetts at Mississippi State+19.5L20–4559.5L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Massachusetts vs Liberty+17.0L34–3553.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/23Massachusetts at Georgia+42.5L21–5955.5L21–59OY
Sat 11/30Massachusetts vs UConn+9.5L42–4749.5L42–47OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UConn PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UConn
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UConn
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UConn
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UConn #67
+0.450
Massachusetts #69
+0.288
UConn Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UConn #85
+0.521
Massachusetts #81
+0.398
UConn Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UConn #53
0.171
Massachusetts #106
0.140
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UConn Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UConn #51
+8.748
Massachusetts #89
+7.092
UConn Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UConn #82
+0.881
Massachusetts #94
+0.802
UConn Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UConn #17
68.5
Massachusetts #131
74.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UConn Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UConn Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UConn
-3.8
Massachusetts
-27.8
Offense Rating
UConn
13.2
Massachusetts
1.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UConn
17.1
Massachusetts
29.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UConn Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UConn #72
1.40
Massachusetts #103
0.56
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UConn #53
1.10
Massachusetts #124
1.78
UConn +0.84
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UConn Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UConn #1
43.0
Massachusetts #1
27.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UConn #69
41.9
Massachusetts #115
52.9
UConn +15.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UConn
18.1 — 55.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UConn won by 5
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UConn with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UConn
Jim L. Mora #1
9–16 (36%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Gordon Sammis Yr 1 #1
DC Matt Brock Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Massachusetts
Don Brown #1
4–20 (17%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Shane Montgomery Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Dudzinski Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself