Missouri at Massachusetts Week 7 College Football Matchup Missouri at Massachusetts Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 12 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium Hadley, MA · Turf · 17,000 cap
Missouri✈ 1,062 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
45 3
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Missouri
41
Massachusetts
13
P&R Line Missouri -28.5
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Missouri -27 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
Missouri has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Missouri entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Missouri wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Missouri wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Missouri -27
O/U 54.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Missouri · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Missouri 2nd straight Road Game
Missouri 2024 Schedule
Missouri's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Missouri vs Murray State-50.5W51–062.5W51–0UY
Sat 9/7Missouri vs Buffalo-34.5W38–053.5W38–0UY
Sat 9/14Missouri vs Boston College-14.5W27–2151.5W27–21UN
Sat 9/21Missouri vs Vanderbilt-17.5W30–2752.0W30–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Missouri at Texas A&M+3.0L10–4147.5L10–41ON
Sat 10/12Missouri at Massachusetts-27.0W45–354.0W45–3UY
Sat 10/19Missouri vs Auburn-3.5W21–1749.5W21–17UY
Sat 10/26Missouri at Alabama+16.0L0–3451.5L0–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Missouri vs Oklahoma+3.5W30–2341.5W30–23OY
Sat 11/16Missouri at South Carolina+10.5L30–3442.5L30–34OY
Sat 11/23Missouri at Mississippi State-9.5W39–2058.0W39–20OY
Sat 11/30Missouri vs Arkansas-3.5W28–2151.5W28–21UY
Mon 12/30Missouri vs Iowa-1.0W27–2441.0W27–24OY
Massachusetts 2024 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan-2.5L14–2849.0L14–28UN
Sat 9/7Massachusetts at Toledo+17.5L23–3850.5L23–38OY
Sat 9/14Massachusetts at Buffalo+3.5L3–3445.5L3–34UN
Sat 9/21Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut-19.5W35–3152.0W35–31ON
Sat 9/28Massachusetts at Miami (OH)+15.5L20–2344.5L20–23UY
Sat 10/5Massachusetts at Northern Illinois+14.0L20–3441.0L20–34OY
Sat 10/12Massachusetts vs Missouri+27.0L3–4554.0L3–45UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26Massachusetts vs Wagner-23.0W35–748.0W35–7UY
Sat 11/2Massachusetts at Mississippi State+19.5L20–4559.5L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Massachusetts vs Liberty+17.0L34–3553.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/23Massachusetts at Georgia+42.5L21–5955.5L21–59OY
Sat 11/30Massachusetts vs UConn+9.5L42–4749.5L42–47OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Missouri PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Missouri
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Missouri
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Missouri
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Missouri #70
+0.445
Massachusetts #69
+0.301
Missouri Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Missouri #66
+0.556
Massachusetts #81
+0.457
Missouri Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Missouri #32
0.183
Massachusetts #106
0.140
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Missouri Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Missouri #68
+8.573
Massachusetts #89
+7.109
Missouri Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Missouri #54
+0.904
Massachusetts #94
+0.815
Missouri Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Missouri #28
69.0
Massachusetts #131
74.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Missouri Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Missouri Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Missouri
12.2
Massachusetts
-27.8
Offense Rating
Missouri
20.9
Massachusetts
1.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Missouri
8.7
Massachusetts
29.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Missouri Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Missouri #30
1.25
Massachusetts #103
0.60
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Missouri #54
1.00
Massachusetts #124
0.80
Missouri +0.65
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Missouri Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Missouri #1
51.9
Massachusetts #1
21.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Missouri #60
31.6
Massachusetts #115
54.3
Missouri +30.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Missouri with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Missouri
Eliah Drinkwitz #1
28–21 (57%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Kirby Moore Yr 2 #1
DC Corey Batoon Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Massachusetts
Don Brown #1
4–20 (17%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Shane Montgomery Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Dudzinski Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself