Fresno State at San Diego State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Snapdragon Stadium - San Diego, CA (Pac-12)

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#42)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

SDSU is playing their 7th straight game
FRES is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: San Diego State -7 (SP+ SDSU -5)
Projected Score: FRES: 19 - SDSU: 26 (45)
SDSU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
FRES Travel: 316 miles

Aztecs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (31 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 3.7 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
SDSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Fresno State at USC	+28
Sat 9/12	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-5.5
Sat 9/19	Fresno State at San José State	-8.5
Sat 9/26	Fresno State vs Rice	-13
Fri 10/2	Fresno State at Washington State	+6
Sat 10/10	Fresno State vs Boise State	+4.5
Sat 10/17	Fresno State at San Diego State	+7
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/30	Fresno State vs Oregon State	-13.5
Sat 11/7	Fresno State at Utah State	-0.5
Sat 11/14	Fresno State at Texas State	+7
Sat 11/21	Fresno State vs Colorado State	-11.5
Sat 11/28	Fresno State vs TBD	-19

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

San Diego State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	San Diego State vs Portland State	-24
Sat 9/12	San Diego State at UCLA	+4
Sat 9/19	San Diego State vs James Madison	-1
Sat 9/26	San Diego State at Toledo	+3
Sat 10/3	San Diego State vs Texas State	-3
Sat 10/10	San Diego State at Oregon State	-13
Sat 10/17	San Diego State vs Fresno State	-7
Sat 10/24	San Diego State at Colorado State	-11
Sat 10/31	San Diego State vs Washington State	-3.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/14	San Diego State vs Utah State	-10.5
Fri 11/20	San Diego State at Boise State	+5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#106 (.11)	39% (111)	25.8	38% (120)	2.79 (102)	171	41% (78)	183	3.29 (111)	#41 (.11)	39% (32)	18.8	43% (78)	35% (13)	3.26 (33)	60.6	1.5	2
SDSU	#93 (.13)	42% (76)	26.4	46% (40)	3.34 (10)	199	36% (121)	158	3.51 (90)	#4 (-.01)	35% (10)	15.4	38% (24)	33% (4)	2.42 (3)	55.9	1.2	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	13	25.8	26.3	38.6%	3.29	1.5	19	354	171	183	4.6	53%	45%	38%	41%	15%	.11
SDSU Defense	13	15.4	6.8	35.1%	2.42	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	38%	33%	15%	-.01

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	13	18.8	24.8	38.9%	3.26	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	35%	17%	.11
SDSU Offense	13	26.4	31.2	41.8%	3.51	1.2	18	356	199	158	4.8	61%	37%	46%	36%	13%	.13

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	13	32:19	18.9	36%	43%	6.6	60.6	1.5	2	5.2	1.8	3	33.6
San Diego State	13	30:17	17.9	31%	52%	6.2	55.9	1.2	1.4	4.8	2.5	5	31.7

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	13	53% (40)	38% (120)	37.1	170.7	4.6	22 (49)	.02 (114)	2.79 (102)	73% (57)	10% (87)	1.01 (50)
SDSU Defense	13	48% (46)	38% (24)	-	-	-	-	.06 (43)	3.04 (99)	63% (15)	8% (113)	0.96 (70)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	13	50% (62)	43% (78)	-	-	-	-	.09 (61)	3 (92)	74% (91)	10% (70)	0.82 (8)
SDSU Offense	13	61% (9)	46% (40)	41.8	198.9	4.8	25 (70)	.17 (43)	3.34 (10)	80% (16)	7% (22)	0.9 (94)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	13	45% (99)	41% (78)	18.4	28.7	183.4	6.4	10	14 (75)	13 (127)	.25 (64)	1.5 (77)	33% (97)	30% (72)	.31 (69)	5% (45)	2 (86)
SDSU Defense	13	50% (90)	33% (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (55)	-.04 (2)	1.4 (16)	35% (17)	23% (6)	.06 (3)	7% (22)	1.8 (14)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	13	49% (76)	35% (13)	-	-	-	-	-	-	20 (12)	.15 (25)	1.6 (94)	33% (43)	27% (33)	.19 (24)	8% (13)	1.8 (18)
SDSU Offense	13	37% (128)	36% (121)	12.8	22.3	157.9	7.1	12.4	10 (106)	10 (7)	.09 (127)	1.7 (20)	30% (41)	20% (136)	.04 (132)	6% (48)	1.9 (88)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -10.53 #99
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 1.37 #126
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 16.90 #70
2026 Talent Rating: 658.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Fresno State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Fresno State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8 #66
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #37

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -10.53 San Diego State: 2.88

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 1.8 San Diego State: 6.7

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 2.88 #84
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 5.01 #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.95 #63
2026 Talent Rating: 552.00 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
San Diego State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.3 - 3.7
San Diego State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.7 #43
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #28

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
San Diego State 26
Fresno State 19

Projected Total Points: 45

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 6.8

San Diego State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Fresno State	0	San Diego State	23	San Diego State -3	San Diego State	46.5	Under
2023	11/25	San Diego State	33	Fresno State	18	Fresno State -5.5	San Diego State	47.0	Over
2022	10/29	Fresno State	32	San Diego State	28	Fresno State -10	San Diego State	43.5	Over
2021	10/30	San Diego State	20	Fresno State	30	Fresno State -2	Fresno State	43.5	Over
2019	11/15	San Diego State	17	Fresno State	7	San Diego State -1	San Diego State	43.0	Under
2018	11/17	Fresno State	23	San Diego State	14	Fresno State -13	San Diego State	42.5	Under
2017	10/21	San Diego State	3	Fresno State	27	San Diego State -6.5	Fresno State	49.5	Under
2016	10/14	Fresno State	3	San Diego State	17	San Diego State -17.5	Fresno State	51.0	Under
2015	10/03	San Diego State	21	Fresno State	7	San Diego State -9.5	San Diego State	51.5	Under
2014	10/03	Fresno State	24	San Diego State	13	San Diego State -2	Fresno State	0
2013	10/26	San Diego State	28	Fresno State	35	Fresno State -9.5	San Diego State	0
2012	09/29	Fresno State	52	San Diego State	40
2011	12/03	San Diego State	35	Fresno State	28
2002	08/29	Fresno State	16	San Diego State	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San Diego State	6	7	3 Overs
Fresno State	8	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 5	6 - 5	2 - 3	4 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 9	5 - 6	2 - 4	3 - 2

(#99) FRES at (#84) SDSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FRES	SDSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#99	#84
SP+SP+	#66	#43
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#81	#99
Blue ChipsBC%	#99	#99

Fresno State Injury Report

San Diego State Notes(2/2) Lewis era growing & SDSU is spending NIL $
San Diego State Injury Report

Fresno State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	SDSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#111	#10
ExplosiveExp	#54	#23
PPAPPA	#106	#4
PowerPwr	#126	#63
SP+SP+	#100	#28
Pts POPPO	#111	#3
HavocHav	#64	#78

Fresno State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#120	#24
Run ExplRExp	#50	#70
PPAExp	#114	#43
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#102	#99
Stuff RateStuff	#90	#109
TackleTak	-	NR

Fresno State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#78	#4
Pass ExplPExl	#77	#16
PPAExp	#64	#2
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#87	#113
DB HavocDB	#45	#22

San Diego State on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	FRES Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#76	#32
ExplosiveExp	#112	#25
PPAPPA	#93	#41
PowerPwr	#106	#70
SP+SP+	#90	#37
Pts POPPO	#90	#33
HavocHav	#25	#30

San Diego State Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#40	#78
Run ExplRExp	#94	#8
PPAExp	#43	#61
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#10	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#14	#50
TackleTak	-	NR

San Diego State Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#121	#13
Pass ExplPExl	#20	#94
PPAExp	#127	#25
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#22	#70
DB HavocDB	#48	#13

Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
San Diego State beat Fresno State last year (23-0)
San Diego State beat Fresno State in 2023 (33-18)

FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Khristian Martin (Tr)	11	17	65%	105	1	0	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rayshon Luke	110	699	6	6.4	69
Bryson Donelson	142	583	5	4.1	57
Brandon Ramirez	60	271	3	4.5	19
Josiah Freeman	3	17	0	5.7	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josiah Freeman	52	642	6	12.3	51
Ezekiel Avit	28	255	0	9.1	41
Rayshon Luke	36	228	2	6.3	23
Jahlil McClain	13	169	1	13.0	43

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Simeon Harris	53	7	1	0	5
Camryn Bracha	52	3	0	0	4
Finn Claypool	41	11	7	4	1
Tytus Khajavi	37	3	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Finn Claypool	41	11	7	4	1
Jahzon Jacks	32	7	4	3	0
Deijon Laffitte	27	5	3	0	3
Simeon Harris	53	7	1	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Simeon Harris	53	7	1	5
Ryan Wilson	25	2	1	4
Camryn Bracha	52	3	0	4

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Denegal	143	244	59%	1810	9	8	7.4
Bert Emanuel Jr.	9	16	56%	74	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lucky Sutton	253	1292	10	5.1	50
Christian Washington	97	560	4	5.8	41
Bert Emanuel Jr.	32	273	2	8.5	72
Jayden Denegal	67	103	4	1.5	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Napier	48	632	2	13.2	80
Javion Kinnard (Tr)	18	228	1	12.7	79
Nathan Acevedo	16	190	0	11.9	42
Jacob Bostick	11	157	3	14.3	35

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Demetrius Sumler (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jalen Thomeson (Tr)	86	7	2	1
Dalesean Staley	70	1	0	8
Tano Letuli	27	0	2	1
Malachi Finau	18	1	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Djibril Abdou Rahman (Tr)	5	1	1	1	1
Kai Wallin (Tr)	17	2	1	4	1
Solomon Davis (Tr)	6	1	1	0	0
Malik Gucake	10	3	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dalesean Staley	70	1	0	8
Brady Nassar	14	0	4	3
Jalen Thomeson (Tr)	86	7	2	1