Sacramento State at Fresno State - 2026 Matchup Preview
Sacramento State logo   Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State Bulldogs  Fresno State logo
Saturday, September 12th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Bulldog Stadium - Fresno, CA

 
Hornets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Alonzo Carter (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 20 (17 - 20 on Road)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Fresno State -5.5  (SP+ FRES -2)
Projected Score: SAC: 17 - FRES: 23 (40)
FRES Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
SAC Travel: 151 miles
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#42)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Sacramento State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/12 Sacramento State at Fresno State+5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sacramento State's Schedule
Fresno State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Fresno State at USC+28
Sat 9/12 Fresno State vs Sacramento State-5.5
Sat 9/19 Fresno State at San José State-8.5
Sat 9/26 Fresno State vs Rice-13
Fri 10/2 Fresno State at Washington State+6
Sat 10/10 Fresno State vs Boise State+4.5
Sat 10/17 Fresno State at San Diego State+7
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/30 Fresno State vs Oregon State-13.5
Sat 11/7 Fresno State at Utah State-0.5
Sat 11/14 Fresno State at Texas State+7
Sat 11/21 Fresno State vs Colorado State-11.5
Sat 11/28 Fresno State vs TBD-19

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SAC0%170%000%000%200%0%0000
FRES#106 (.11)39% (111)25.838% (120)2.79 (102)17141% (78)1833.29 (111)#41 (.11)39% (32)18.843% (78)35% (13)3.26 (33)60.61.52
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SAC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FRES0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SAC Offense117170%00000000%0%0%0%0%
FRES Defense1318.815.338.9%3.262 - - - - - 50%49%43%35%17%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SAC Defense120200%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
FRES Offense1325.826.538.6%3.291.5193541711834.653%45%38%41%15%.11

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Sacramento State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Fresno State1332:1918.936%43%6.660.61.525.21.8333.6
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SAC Offense10%0%000000%0%0
FRES Defense1350% (62)43% (78) - - - - .09 (61)3 (92)74% (91)10% (70)0.82 (8)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SAC Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
FRES Offense1353% (40)38% (120)37.1170.74.622 (49).02 (114)2.79 (102)73% (57)10% (87)1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SAC Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
FRES Defense1349% (76)35% (13) - - - - - - 20 (12).15 (25)1.6 (94)33% (43)27% (33).19 (24)8% (13)1.8 (18)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SAC Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
FRES Offense1345% (99)41% (78)18.428.7183.46.41014 (75)13 (127).25 (64)1.5 (77)33% (97)30% (72).31 (69)5% (45)2 (86)

Sacramento State's Power Ratings
Sacramento State's Power Rating: -15.15  #122
Sacramento State's Offense Rating: -1.37  #138
Sacramento State's Defense Rating: 18.78  #81
2026 Talent Rating: 462.00  #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #79
Sacramento State's 2026 Expected Record: -
Sacramento State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 530.15
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State: -15.15   Fresno State: -1.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State:    Fresno State: 1.8




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -1.865  #99
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 1.37  #126
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 16.90  #70
2026 Talent Rating: 658.00  #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #99
Fresno State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Fresno State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #66
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #100
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1  #37

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17


Sacramento State Scoring
Offense: 17 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 20 PPG
Defense on Road: 20

Sacramento State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 23
Sacramento State 17

Projected Total Points: 40
Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Fresno State46Sacramento State30Fresno State -18.5Sacramento State55.5Over
201909/21Fresno State34Sacramento State20Fresno State -24.5Sacramento State54.5Under
201609/10Fresno State31Sacramento State3
200709/01Fresno State24Sacramento State3
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State401 Overs
Sacramento State021 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 00 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams0 - 42 - 00 - 02 - 0

(#122) SAC at (#99) FRES
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSACFRES
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #122 #99
SP+SP+NR #66
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #121 #81
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #99
Sacramento State Notes
(2/15) 2025: (7-5), '24: (3-9), '23: (8-5), '22: (12-1)
(2/15) Lost top 2 QB, 3 RB, 1 WR from '25 via portal
(2/15) HC Carter was RB coach @ Arizona past 2 years
Sacramento State Injury Report
Sacramento State on Offense
CategoryCat
SAC OffFRES Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNR #32
ExplosiveExpNR #25
PPAPPANR #41
PowerPwr #138 #70
SP+SP+NR #37
Pts POPPONR #33
HavocHavNR #30
Sacramento State Run Game
CategoryCat
SAC OffFRES Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNR #78
Run ExplRExpNR #8
PPAExpNR #61
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #92
Stuff RateStuffNR #50
TackleTak - NR
Sacramento State Pass Game
CategoryCat
SAC OffFRES Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNR #13
Pass ExplPExlNR #94
PPAExpNR #25
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NR #70
DB HavocDBNR #13
Fresno State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatFRES OffSAC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #111NR
ExplosiveExp #54NR
PPAPPA #106NR
PowerPwr #126 #81
SP+SP+ #100NR
Pts POPPO #111NR
HavocHav #64NR
Fresno State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffSAC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #120NR
Run ExplRExp #50NR
PPAExp #114NR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #102NR
Stuff RateStuff #90NR
TackleTak - NR
Fresno State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatFRES OffSAC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #78NR
Pass ExplPExl #77NR
PPAExp #64NR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #87NR
DB HavocDB #45NR
Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

SAC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Sacramento State in 2024 (46-30)

  
SAC's OC Eric Kiesau (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Conklin (Tr)479649%354123.7
Savion Red11100%280028.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sam Adams II3618135.034
Savion Red125804.813
Jace Wilson1101.01
Dean Abdullah0-100.00
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Anderson24361015.052
Jordan Williams11170115.526
Sam Adams II9134214.933
Jace Wilson356018.745

View Sacramento State's Full Roster

SAC's DC Adam Clark (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)100002
Tim Thomas (Tr)60000
Deven Wright51000
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)50000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)100002
Tim Thomas (Tr)60000
Deven Wright51000
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)50000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)100002
Tim Thomas (Tr)60000
Deven Wright51000

FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Khristian Martin (Tr)111765%105106.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rayshon Luke11069966.469
Bryson Donelson14258354.157
Brandon Ramirez6027134.519
Josiah Freeman31705.79
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman52642612.351
Ezekiel Avit2825509.141
Rayshon Luke3622826.323
Jahlil McClain13169113.043

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Simeon Harris537105
Camryn Bracha523004
Finn Claypool4111741
Tytus Khajavi373110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool4111741
Jahzon Jacks327430
Deijon Laffitte275303
Simeon Harris537105
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Simeon Harris537105
Ryan Wilson252104
Camryn Bracha523004