Fresno State at USC - 2026 Matchup Preview
Fresno State logo Fresno State Bulldogs at USC TrojansUSC logo
Saturday, September 5th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum - Los Angeles, CA

 
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: USC -27.5  (SP+ USC -15)
Projected Score: FRES: 13 - USC: 40 (53)
USC Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
FRES Travel: 210 miles
Trojans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (36 - 17)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (43 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Fresno State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Fresno State at USC+27.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
USC's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 USC vs Fresno State-27.5
Sat 9/12 USC vs Louisiana-32.5
Sat 9/19 USC at Rutgers-19.5
Sat 9/26 USC vs Oregon+2.5
Sat 10/3 USC vs Washington-5
Sat 10/10 USC at Penn State-3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24 USC at Wisconsin-19
Sat 10/31 USC vs Ohio State+6
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/14 USC at Indiana+10.5
Sat 11/21 USC vs Maryland-21
Sat 11/28 USC at UCLA-20.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#106 (.11)39% (111)25.838% (120)2.79 (102)17141% (78)1833.29 (111)#41 (.11)39% (32)18.843% (78)35% (13)3.26 (33)60.61.52
USC#7 (.33)49% (11)35.846% (41)3.16 (28)16952% (4)2964.66 (10)#64 (.16)45% (119)2347% (122)43% (81)3.53 (56)54.21.21.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense1325.826.338.6%3.291.5193541711834.653%45%38%41%15%.11
USC Defense132317.945.4%3.531.4 - - - - - 47%51%47%43%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense1318.824.838.9%3.262 - - - - - 50%49%43%35%17%.11
USC Offense1335.84348.9%4.661.2244651692965.248%50%46%52%13%.33

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State1332:1918.936%43%6.660.61.525.21.8333.6
USC1329:5023.751%64%5.854.21.21.45.52.4227.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense1353% (40)38% (120)37.1170.74.622 (49).02 (114)2.79 (102)73% (57)10% (87)1.01 (50)
USC Defense1347% (37)47% (122) - - - - .13 (88)3.29 (125)67% (32)11% (34)0.81 (6)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense1350% (62)43% (78) - - - - .09 (61)3 (92)74% (91)10% (70)0.82 (8)
USC Offense1348% (81)46% (41)32.5169.25.229 (16).18 (36)3.16 (28)75% (47)7% (17)0.95 (74)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense1345% (99)41% (78)18.428.7183.46.41014 (75)13 (127).25 (64)1.5 (77)33% (97)30% (72).31 (69)5% (45)2 (86)
USC Defense1351% (95)43% (81) - - - - - - 12 (12).18 (41)1.6 (77)29% (110)33% (116).34 (93)5% (102)2.1 (112)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense1349% (76)35% (13) - - - - - - 20 (12).15 (25)1.6 (94)33% (43)27% (33).19 (24)8% (13)1.8 (18)
USC Offense1350% (61)52% (4)21.532.32969.213.726 (22)10 (34).52 (4)1.6 (36)27% (14)37% (11).5 (10)6% (65)2.2 (14)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -10.29  #94
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 1.30  #123
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 16.59  #65
2026 Talent Rating: 658.00  #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #24
Fresno State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Fresno State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #66
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #100
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1  #37

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 620.75
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -10.29   USC: 23.36

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 1.8   USC: 16.9




USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 23.36  #10
USC's Offense Rating: 28.12  #4
USC's Defense Rating: 8.30  #20
2026 Talent Rating: 1030.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #24
USC's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
USC's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.9  #16
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.9  #9
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0  #36

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.78
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
USC 40
Fresno State 13

Projected Total Points: 53
USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 43
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.9

USC's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202209/17USC45Fresno State17USC -11USC71.0Under
201908/31USC31Fresno State23USC -14.5Fresno State50.0Over
201408/30USC52Fresno State13USC -18.5USC59.0Over
201312/21USC45Fresno State20USC -4.5USC65.0Push
200511/19USC50Fresno State42
TeamWinsCoversO/U
USC532 Overs
Fresno State011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 03 - 13 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 51 - 30 - 01 - 3

(#94) FRES at (#10) USC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFRESUSC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #94 #10
SP+SP+ #66 #16
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #78 #8
Blue ChipsBC% #24 #24
Fresno State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffUSC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #111 #119
ExplosiveExp #54 #16
PPAPPA #106 #64
PowerPwr #123 #20
SP+SP+ #100 #36
Pts POPPO #111 #56
HavocHav #64 #63
Fresno State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffUSC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #120 #122
Run ExplRExp #50 #6
PPAExp #114 #88
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #102 #125
Stuff RateStuff #90 #86
TackleTak - NR
Fresno State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffUSC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #78 #81
Pass ExplPExl #77 #77
PPAExp #64 #41
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #87 #34
DB HavocDB #45 #102
USC on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUSC OffFRES Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #11 #32
ExplosiveExp #33 #25
PPAPPA #7 #41
PowerPwr #4 #65
SP+SP+ #9 #37
Pts POPPO #10 #33
HavocHav #32 #30
USC Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
USC OffFRES Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #41 #78
Run ExplRExp #74 #8
PPAExp #36 #61
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #28 #92
Stuff RateStuff #37 #50
TackleTak - NR
USC Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUSC OffFRES Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #4 #13
Pass ExplPExl #36 #94
PPAExp #4 #25
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #17 #70
DB HavocDB #65 #13
Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Khristian Martin (Tr)111765%105106.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rayshon Luke11069966.469
Bryson Donelson14258354.157
Brandon Ramirez6027134.519
Josiah Freeman31705.79
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman52642612.351
Ezekiel Avit2825509.141
Rayshon Luke3622826.323
Jahlil McClain13169113.043

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Simeon Harris537105
Camryn Bracha523004
Finn Claypool4111741
Tytus Khajavi373110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool4111741
Jahzon Jacks327430
Deijon Laffitte275303
Simeon Harris537105
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Simeon Harris537105
Ryan Wilson252104
Camryn Bracha523004

USC's OC Luke Huard (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Maiava26540366%371124109.2
Sam Huard11100%100010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
King Miller15697286.275
Waymond Jordan8857656.540
Jayden Maiava5415762.921
Riley Wormley51803.66
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrell Anderson (Tr)39629516.175
Tanook Hines34561216.551
Jaden Richardson12148112.343
King Miller1611106.920

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC Gary Patterson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Desman Stephens II863010
Christian Pierce643103
Deven Bryant (Tr)622012
Alex VanSumeren (Tr)502221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameryn Fountain3711610
Braylan Shelby276540
Jide Abasiri264420
Zuriah Fisher (Tr)194251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcelles Williams370004
Christian Pierce643103
Kamari Ramsey212022