San Diego State at Oregon State - 2026 Matchup Preview

San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers

Saturday, October 10th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Reser Stadium - Corvallis, OR (Pac-12)

Aztecs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (18 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 3.7 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 6)

ORST is playing their 6th straight game
SDSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: San Diego State -13 (SP+ SDSU -22.5)
Projected Score: SDSU: 29 - ORST: 16 (44)
SDSU Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
SDSU Travel: 878 miles

Beavers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach JaMarcus Shephard (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (22 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.9 - 8.1 (#76)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
SDSU Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

San Diego State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	San Diego State vs Portland State	-24
Sat 9/12	San Diego State at UCLA	+4
Sat 9/19	San Diego State vs James Madison	-1
Sat 9/26	San Diego State at Toledo	+3
Sat 10/3	San Diego State vs Texas State	-3
Sat 10/10	San Diego State at Oregon State	-13
Sat 10/17	San Diego State vs Fresno State	-7
Sat 10/24	San Diego State at Colorado State	-11
Sat 10/31	San Diego State vs Washington State	-3.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/14	San Diego State vs Utah State	-10.5
Fri 11/20	San Diego State at Boise State	+5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule

Oregon State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Oregon State at Houston	+23.5
Sat 9/12	Oregon State vs Texas Tech	+39.5
Sat 9/19	Oregon State vs Montana	-8.5
Sat 9/26	Oregon State at UTEP	+4
Sat 10/3	Oregon State at Colorado State	+4.5
Sat 10/10	Oregon State vs San Diego State	+13
Sat 10/17	Oregon State vs Washington State	+12
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/30	Oregon State at Fresno State	+13.5
Sat 11/7	Oregon State vs Texas State	+12.5
Sat 11/14	Oregon State at Boise State	+20.5
Sat 11/21	Oregon State vs Utah State	+5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU	#93 (.13)	42% (76)	26.4	46% (40)	3.34 (10)	199	36% (121)	158	3.51 (90)	#4 (-.01)	35% (10)	15.4	38% (24)	33% (4)	2.42 (3)	55.9	1.2	1.4
ORST	#124 (.05)	42% (68)	17.6	44% (67)	2.82 (89)	127	42% (68)	225	2.89 (128)	#77 (.18)	38% (25)	29.4	41% (51)	36% (18)	3.41 (46)	49.9	1.7	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Offense	13	26.4	18.2	41.8%	3.51	1.2	18	356	199	158	4.8	61%	37%	46%	36%	13%	.13
ORST Defense	12	29.4	25.3	38.3%	3.41	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	41%	36%	17%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Defense	13	15.4	18.3	35.1%	2.42	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	38%	33%	15%	-.01
ORST Offense	12	17.6	21.7	42.3%	2.89	1.7	20	353	127	225	3.8	46%	52%	44%	42%	16%	.05

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
San Diego State	13	30:17	17.9	31%	52%	6.2	55.9	1.2	1.4	4.8	2.5	5	31.7
Oregon State	12	31:52	20.4	36%	40%	5.9	49.9	1.7	0.8	5.3	1.3	0	28.3

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense	13	61% (9)	46% (40)	41.8	198.9	4.8	25 (70)	.17 (43)	3.34 (10)	80% (16)	7% (22)	0.9 (94)
ORST Defense	12	49% (59)	41% (51)	-	-	-	-	.07 (52)	2.6 (17)	68% (43)	10% (57)	0.94 (57)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense	13	48% (46)	38% (24)	-	-	-	-	.06 (43)	3.04 (99)	63% (15)	8% (113)	0.96 (70)
ORST Offense	12	46% (98)	44% (67)	33.9	127.3	3.8	15 (60)	.01 (120)	2.82 (89)	77% (30)	9% (61)	0.73 (135)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense	13	37% (128)	36% (121)	12.8	22.3	157.9	7.1	12.4	10 (106)	10 (7)	.09 (127)	1.7 (20)	30% (41)	20% (136)	.04 (132)	6% (48)	1.9 (88)
ORST Defense	12	49% (81)	36% (18)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (55)	.31 (98)	2 (136)	33% (44)	29% (69)	.44 (126)	7% (15)	2.5 (136)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense	13	50% (90)	33% (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (55)	-.04 (2)	1.4 (16)	35% (17)	23% (6)	.06 (3)	7% (22)	1.8 (14)
ORST Offense	12	52% (36)	42% (68)	21.7	35.9	225.4	6.3	10.4	14 (61)	13 (127)	.11 (123)	1.3 (133)	31% (68)	28% (96)	.05 (131)	7% (110)	1.7 (134)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -5.94 #84
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 5.01 #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.95 #63
2026 Talent Rating: 552.00 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
San Diego State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.3 - 3.7
San Diego State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.7 #43
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #28

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -5.94 Oregon State: -12.615

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 6.7 Oregon State: -15.9

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -12.615 #118
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 0.53 #130
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 19.86 #89
2026 Talent Rating: 566.00 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #66
Oregon State's 2026 Expected Record: 2.9 - 8.1
Oregon State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.9 #126
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #125
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #96

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

San Diego State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
San Diego State 29
Oregon State 16

Projected Total Points: 44

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Oregon State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	San Diego State	0	Oregon State	21	Oregon State -5.5	Oregon State	54.5	Under
2023	09/16	Oregon State	26	San Diego State	9	Oregon State -24.5	San Diego State	48.5	Under
2014	09/20	Oregon State	28	San Diego State	7	Oregon State -8.5	Oregon State	0
2013	09/21	San Diego State	30	Oregon State	34	Oregon State -8	San Diego State	0
2000	09/22	Oregon State	35	San Diego State	3

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	5	2	0 Overs
San Diego State	0	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	2 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	2 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 1

(#84) SDSU at (#118) ORST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SDSU	ORST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#84	#118
SP+SP+	#43	#126
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#99	#96
Blue ChipsBC%	#99	#66

San Diego State Notes(2/2) Lewis era growing & SDSU is spending NIL $
San Diego State Injury Report

Oregon State Notes(2/2) Reset w/ Shephard in new P12 after Brey fired
(2/2) Special Teams were a disaster in '25, must fix
Oregon State Injury Report

San Diego State on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	ORST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#76	#25
ExplosiveExp	#112	#133
PPAPPA	#93	#77
PowerPwr	#106	#89
SP+SP+	#90	#96
Pts POPPO	#90	#46
HavocHav	#25	#36

San Diego State Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#40	#51
Run ExplRExp	#94	#57
PPAExp	#43	#52
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#10	#17
Stuff RateStuff	#14	#22
TackleTak	-	NR

San Diego State Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#121	#18
Pass ExplPExl	#20	#136
PPAExp	#127	#98
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#22	#57
DB HavocDB	#48	#15

Oregon State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	SDSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#68	#10
ExplosiveExp	#135	#23
PPAPPA	#124	#4
PowerPwr	#130	#63
SP+SP+	#125	#28
Pts POPPO	#128	#3
HavocHav	#89	#78

Oregon State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#67	#24
Run ExplRExp	#135	#70
PPAExp	#120	#43
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#89	#99
Stuff RateStuff	#24	#109
TackleTak	-	NR

Oregon State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#68	#4
Pass ExplPExl	#133	#16
PPAExp	#123	#2
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#61	#113
DB HavocDB	#110	#22

Program Comparison
ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Poor G5

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Oregon State beat San Diego State in 2024 (21-0)
Oregon State beat San Diego State in 2023 (26-9)

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Denegal	143	244	59%	1810	9	8	7.4
Bert Emanuel Jr.	9	16	56%	74	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lucky Sutton	253	1292	10	5.1	50
Christian Washington	97	560	4	5.8	41
Bert Emanuel Jr.	32	273	2	8.5	72
Jayden Denegal	67	103	4	1.5	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Napier	48	632	2	13.2	80
Javion Kinnard (Tr)	18	228	1	12.7	79
Nathan Acevedo	16	190	0	11.9	42
Jacob Bostick	11	157	3	14.3	35

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Demetrius Sumler (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jalen Thomeson (Tr)	86	7	2	1
Dalesean Staley	70	1	0	8
Tano Letuli	27	0	2	1
Malachi Finau	18	1	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Djibril Abdou Rahman (Tr)	5	1	1	1	1
Kai Wallin (Tr)	17	2	1	4	1
Solomon Davis (Tr)	6	1	1	0	0
Malik Gucake	10	3	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dalesean Staley	70	1	0	8
Brady Nassar	14	0	4	3
Jalen Thomeson (Tr)	86	7	2	1

ORST's OC Mitch Dahlen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy	160	276	58%	1802	9	8	6.5
Brady Jones (Tr)	19	40	48%	136	1	3	3.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cornell Hatcher Jr.	52	292	2	5.6	42
AJ Newberry (Tr)	18	57	3	3.2	16
Kourdey Glass	2	7	0	3.5	7
Jake Reichle	3	6	1	2.0	3

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
D.C. Temple	17	143	2	8.4	19
Eddie Freauff	12	139	1	11.6	30
Karson Boschma	4	89	1	22.3	28
Malachi Durant	3	27	1	9.0	11

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Mike MacIntyre (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aiden Sullivan	72	7	1	5	1
Takari Hickle	38	5	2	5	0
Sailasa Vadrawale	31	1	0	1	5
Tyree Blake	29	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Takari Hickle	38	5	2	5	0
Aiden Sullivan	72	7	1	5	1
Jaylen Hill	2	1	1	0	1
Malachi Durant	1	0	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Sailasa Vadrawale	31	1	1	5
Trey Glasper	23	2	0	5
Mason White	28	1	0	2