UCF at Oklahoma State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 10th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Boone Pickens Stadium - Stillwater, OK

Knights (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (24 - 14)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (13 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UCF 2nd straight Road Game
OKST coming off BYE
UCF is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: UCF -3.5 (SP+ UCF -14)
Projected Score: UCF: 25 - OKST: 22 (47)
UCF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UCF Travel: 1060 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Cowboys (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 14 - 33 (17 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#131)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
OKST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/3	UCF vs Bethune-Cookman	-21
Sat 9/12	UCF at Pittsburgh	+13
Sat 9/19	UCF vs Georgia State	-22
Sat 9/26	UCF vs TCU	+8
Sat 10/3	UCF at Houston	+11.5
Sat 10/10	UCF at Oklahoma State	-3.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24	UCF vs BYU	+15
Sat 10/31	UCF vs Baylor	+2
Sat 11/7	UCF at Kansas	+6
Sat 11/14	UCF vs Arizona State	+3.5
Sat 11/21	UCF vs Iowa State	+4
Sat 11/28	UCF at Colorado	-3

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Oklahoma State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Oklahoma State at Tulsa	+3.5
Sat 9/12	Oklahoma State vs Oregon	+31.5
Sat 9/19	Oklahoma State vs Murray State	-15.5
Sat 9/26	Oklahoma State at West Virginia	+8.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10	Oklahoma State vs UCF	+3.5
Sat 10/17	Oklahoma State at Houston	+17.5
Sat 10/24	Oklahoma State vs Colorado	-2
Sat 10/31	Oklahoma State at Iowa State	+15
Sat 11/7	Oklahoma State at Kansas State	+17
Sat 11/14	Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech	+32.5
Sat 11/21	Oklahoma State at Arizona State	+14.5
Sat 11/28	Oklahoma State vs Kansas	+7

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#88 (.14)	39% (107)	24.3	39% (111)	2.61 (126)	158	40% (93)	221	3.49 (94)	#51 (.12)	44% (95)	23.6	47% (116)	40% (54)	3.52 (55)	57.2	1.5	1.2
OKST	#133 (.01)	35% (129)	14.2	36% (128)	2.59 (127)	118	35% (126)	174	2.96 (125)	#130 (.28)	45% (109)	33.3	43% (76)	48% (130)	4 (100)	47.3	1.4	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
OKST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	12	24.3	12.8	39.1%	3.49	1.5	18	379	158	221	4.9	45%	53%	39%	40%	17%	.14
OKST Defense	12	33.3	27.6	44.8%	4	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	43%	48%	15%	.28

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	12	23.6	34.6	43.7%	3.52	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	47%	40%	16%	.12
OKST Offense	12	14.2	17	35.4%	2.96	1.4	16	293	118	174	3.5	47%	52%	36%	35%	19%	.01

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	12	29:55	18.2	34%	56%	7.6	57.2	1.5	1.2	5.6	2.1	2	28.4
Oklahoma State	12	28:52	15.6	35%	40%	5.3	47.3	1.4	1.1	5.6	1.8	1	25.8

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	12	45% (106)	39% (111)	32.3	158.2	4.9	19 (26)	.11 (68)	2.61 (126)	62% (123)	11% (107)	1.25 (1)
OKST Defense	12	52% (102)	43% (76)	-	-	-	-	.16 (99)	2.98 (86)	67% (39)	10% (46)	1.07 (118)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	12	54% (110)	47% (116)	-	-	-	-	.12 (84)	3.06 (101)	85% (132)	10% (46)	0.88 (28)
OKST Offense	12	47% (94)	36% (128)	33.6	118.4	3.5	10 (107)	-.04 (134)	2.59 (127)	69% (87)	11% (116)	0.89 (100)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	12	53% (30)	40% (93)	20.8	33.6	220.8	6.6	10.6	12 (114)	12 (34)	.18 (104)	1.5 (102)	33% (105)	24% (126)	.19 (116)	7% (92)	2.3 (9)
OKST Defense	12	46% (40)	48% (130)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (100)	.44 (133)	1.7 (112)	30% (103)	31% (89)	.37 (106)	5% (118)	2 (56)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	12	45% (28)	40% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (55)	.16 (28)	1.4 (19)	31% (81)	25% (16)	.11 (7)	6% (62)	1.7 (5)
OKST Offense	12	52% (43)	35% (126)	17.5	30.4	174.1	5.7	10	7 (128)	10 (60)	.07 (128)	1.4 (126)	36% (133)	23% (131)	.15 (122)	8% (121)	2 (80)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: -3.32 #71
UCF's Offense Rating: 6.98 #88
UCF's Defense Rating: 15.30 #56
2026 Talent Rating: 616.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #32
UCF's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2 #76
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: -3.32 Oklahoma State: -5.725

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: -1.2 Oklahoma State: -15.1

Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -5.725 #65
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 12.19 #60
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 18.54 #75
2026 Talent Rating: 806.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Oklahoma State's 2026 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Oklahoma State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1 #121
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.2 #131
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #100

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

UCF's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
UCF 25
Oklahoma State 22

Projected Total Points: 47

Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 14.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.6

Oklahoma State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	UCF	17	Oklahoma State	14	UCF -13.5	Oklahoma State	47.5	Under
2023	11/11	UCF	45	Oklahoma State	3	Oklahoma State -2.5	UCF	63.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oklahoma State	0	1	0 Overs
UCF	2	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#71) UCF at (#65) OKST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	OKST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#71	#65
SP+SP+	#76	#121
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#84	#54
Blue ChipsBC%	#32	#65

UCF Injury Report

Oklahoma State Injury Report

UCF on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	OKST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#107	#109
ExplosiveExp	#11	#124
PPAPPA	#88	#130
PowerPwr	#88	#75
SP+SP+	#98	#100
Pts POPPO	#94	#100
HavocHav	#106	#86

UCF Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	OKST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#111	#76
Run ExplRExp	#1	#118
PPAExp	#68	#99
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#126	#86
Stuff RateStuff	#128	#46
TackleTak	-	NR

UCF Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	OKST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#130
Pass ExplPExl	#102	#112
PPAExp	#104	#133
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#107	#46
DB HavocDB	#92	#118

Oklahoma State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	UCF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#129	#95
ExplosiveExp	#116	#5
PPAPPA	#133	#51
PowerPwr	#60	#56
SP+SP+	#131	#51
Pts POPPO	#125	#55
HavocHav	#125	#54

Oklahoma State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#128	#116
Run ExplRExp	#100	#28
PPAExp	#134	#84
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#127	#101
Stuff RateStuff	#89	#112
TackleTak	-	NR

Oklahoma State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#126	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#126	#19
PPAExp	#128	#28
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#116	#46
DB HavocDB	#121	#62

Program Comparison
OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Poor G5

UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Boone Pickens Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
UCF beat Oklahoma State last year (17-14)
UCF beat Oklahoma State in 2023 (45-3)

UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alonza Barnett	216	370	58%	2806	23	8	7.6
Keyone Jenkins (Tr)	164	263	62%	1742	9	6	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landen Chambers (Tr)	242	1273	10	5.3	53
Alonza Barnett	127	589	15	4.6	58
Duke Watson (Tr)	49	158	1	3.2	15
Keyone Jenkins (Tr)	52	114	5	2.2	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joshua Derry	73	1101	13	15.1	75
Duane Thomas Jr.	53	528	0	10.0	41
Dylan Wade	43	523	5	12.2	83
Jonathan Bibbs (Tr)	26	383	3	14.7	68

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lewis Carter	95	4	2	1	1
Jahleel Culbreath (Tr)	71	10	3	3	0
Demari Henderson	61	3	1	0	1
Rashad Henry (Tr)	51	3	0	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bruno Dall (Tr)	44	8	4	6	6
Jahleel Culbreath (Tr)	71	10	3	3	0
Lewis Carter	95	4	2	1	1
R.J. Jackson	24	3	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Bellamy	27	0	0	0	8
Bruno Dall (Tr)	44	8	4	6	6
Antoine Jackson	39	1	0	0	4

OKST's OC Sean Brophy (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Mestemaker (Tr)	319	465	69%	4369	34	9	9.4
Grant Jordan (Tr)	63	110	57%	595	3	2	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Hawkins (Tr)	231	1424	25	6.2	51
Chris Barnes (Tr)	13	143	0	11.0	78
Ayo Adeyi (Tr)	24	120	0	5.0	24
Drew Mestemaker (Tr)	57	89	5	1.6	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Wyatt Young (Tr)	70	1264	10	18.1	84
Miles Coleman (Tr)	47	550	2	11.7	59
Chris Barnes (Tr)	39	547	3	14.0	70
Israel Polk (Tr)	33	525	8	15.9	75

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Wesloski (Tr)	113	9	2	6	0
Isaiah Chisom (Tr)	84	3	0	1	1
Quinton Hammonds (Tr)	54	5	1	2	3
Christian Bodnar (Tr)	44	2	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)	31	10	5	1	0
Malik Charles	28	3	3	1	0
Billy Walton III (Tr)	6	2	2	0	0
Christian Bodnar (Tr)	44	2	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quinton Hammonds (Tr)	54	5	1	2	3
Maurion Horn (Tr)	4	0	0	0	3
Christian Bodnar (Tr)	44	2	2	1	2