Ole Miss at Florida - 2026 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium - Gainesville, FL

Rebels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pete Golding (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (34 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FLA is playing their 4th straight game
MISS is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -8.5 (SP+ MISS -20.5)
Projected Score: MISS: 31 - FLA: 23 (54)
MISS Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
MISS Travel: 532 miles, 1 hrs behind

Gators (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (29 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#96)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MISS Players
FLA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ole Miss's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Ole Miss vs Louisville	-12.5
Sat 9/12	Ole Miss vs Charlotte	-45.5
Sat 9/19	Ole Miss vs LSU	-6
Sat 9/26	Ole Miss at Florida	-8.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10	Ole Miss at Vanderbilt	-1.5
Sat 10/17	Ole Miss vs Missouri	-6
Sat 10/24	Ole Miss at Texas	+3.5
Sat 10/31	Ole Miss vs Auburn	-10
Sat 11/7	Ole Miss vs Georgia	+3.5
Sat 11/14	Ole Miss at Oklahoma	+2
Sat 11/21	Ole Miss vs Wofford	-44
Fri 11/27	Ole Miss vs Mississippi State	-16.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule

Florida's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-22
Sat 9/12	Florida vs Campbell	-33
Sat 9/19	Florida at Auburn	+6
Sat 9/26	Florida vs Ole Miss	+8.5
Sat 10/3	Florida at Missouri	+10.5
Sat 10/10	Florida vs South Carolina	-2.5
Sat 10/17	Florida at Texas	+14.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31	Florida at Georgia	+19.5
Sat 11/7	Florida vs Oklahoma	+8
Sat 11/14	Florida at Kentucky	-4
Sat 11/21	Florida vs Vanderbilt	+4.5
Fri 11/27	Florida at Florida State	+1

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS	#14 (.3)	48% (16)	36.9	45% (52)	2.79 (100)	177	51% (7)	313	4.44 (19)	#57 (.13)	40% (51)	21.1	43% (77)	38% (29)	3.1 (23)	52.4	0.9	1
FLA	#87 (.14)	42% (83)	21.6	47% (36)	3.26 (18)	137	38% (112)	205	4 (41)	#84 (.18)	43% (90)	24	43% (71)	44% (109)	3.46 (53)	43.7	1.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Offense	15	36.9	34.3	47.8%	4.44	0.9	25	490	177	313	4.6	50%	49%	45%	51%	13%	.3
FLA Defense	12	24	18.7	43.3%	3.46	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	45%	43%	44%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Defense	15	21.1	27.8	40%	3.1	1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	43%	38%	17%	.13
FLA Offense	12	21.6	29	41.6%	4	1.5	19	341	137	205	4.3	47%	52%	47%	38%	15%	.14

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ole Miss	15	28:45	25.4	43%	68%	5.5	52.4	0.9	1	5.5	2.2	0	28.1
Florida	12	29:46	19	34%	42%	5.1	43.7	1.5	1.4	5	2.1	0	27.7

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Offense	15	50% (64)	45% (52)	38.1	176.7	4.6	39 (11)	.15 (49)	2.79 (100)	78% (25)	7% (21)	0.96 (66)
FLA Defense	12	53% (106)	43% (71)	-	-	-	-	.08 (57)	2.79 (50)	79% (115)	9% (86)	0.93 (52)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Defense	15	50% (68)	43% (77)	-	-	-	-	.19 (116)	3.11 (105)	70% (59)	10% (57)	1.08 (120)
FLA Offense	12	47% (87)	47% (36)	32	136.8	4.3	10 (122)	.14 (55)	3.26 (18)	76% (42)	10% (74)	0.8 (129)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Offense	15	49% (65)	51% (7)	22.7	34.9	313.3	9	13.8	26 (50)	8 (60)	.46 (8)	1.6 (60)	28% (19)	38% (8)	.53 (7)	6% (72)	2.2 (23)
FLA Defense	12	45% (27)	44% (109)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (38)	.3 (94)	1.6 (86)	31% (86)	28% (48)	.3 (72)	5% (90)	2.3 (131)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Defense	15	48% (68)	38% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (100)	.13 (20)	1.6 (65)	33% (41)	30% (79)	.29 (67)	7% (32)	2.1 (94)
FLA Offense	12	52% (41)	38% (112)	19.5	31.2	204.6	6.6	10.5	18 (61)	14 (127)	.17 (110)	1.5 (82)	30% (42)	27% (103)	.24 (93)	6% (55)	1.9 (97)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 17.12 #17
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 20.26 #16
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 8.14 #19
2026 Talent Rating: 936.00 #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 40% #18
Ole Miss's 2026 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Ole Miss's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.0 #7
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.4 #3
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.3 #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 17.12 Florida: 11.91

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 24.0 Florida: 3.5

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 11.91 #19
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.17 #24
Florida's Defense Rating: 6.85 #14
2026 Talent Rating: 982.00 #14
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #12
Florida's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Florida's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #63
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #89
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #43

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Ole Miss's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Ole Miss 31
Florida 23

Projected Total Points: 54

Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Florida's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Ole Miss	34	Florida	24	Ole Miss -10.5	Florida	53.5	Over
2024	11/23	Florida	24	Ole Miss	17	Ole Miss -13	Florida	57.5	Under
2020	09/26	Ole Miss	35	Florida	51	Florida -13.5	Florida	59.5	Over
2015	10/03	Florida	38	Ole Miss	10	Ole Miss -6.5	Florida	50.5	Under
2008	09/27	Florida	30	Ole Miss	31
2007	09/22	Ole Miss	24	Florida	30
2003	10/04	Florida	17	Ole Miss	20
2002	10/05	Ole Miss	17	Florida	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida	4	4	2 Overs
Ole Miss	4	0	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 4	2 - 2	0 - 1	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 4	2 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 0

(#17) MISS at (#19) FLA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MISS	FLA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#17	#19
SP+SP+	#7	#63
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#23	#14
Blue ChipsBC%	#18	#12

Ole Miss Injury Report

Florida Injury Report

Ole Miss on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	FLA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#16	#90
ExplosiveExp	#42	#68
PPAPPA	#14	#84
PowerPwr	#16	#14
SP+SP+	#3	#43
Pts POPPO	#19	#53
HavocHav	#34	#98

Ole Miss Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	FLA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#52	#71
Run ExplRExp	#66	#52
PPAExp	#49	#57
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#100	#50
Stuff RateStuff	#107	#91
TackleTak	-	NR

Ole Miss Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	FLA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#7	#109
Pass ExplPExl	#60	#86
PPAExp	#8	#94
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#21	#86
DB HavocDB	#72	#90

Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	MISS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#83	#51
ExplosiveExp	#130	#96
PPAPPA	#87	#57
PowerPwr	#24	#19
SP+SP+	#89	#20
Pts POPPO	#41	#23
HavocHav	#61	#46

Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#36	#77
Run ExplRExp	#129	#120
PPAExp	#55	#116
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#18	#105
Stuff RateStuff	#22	#83
TackleTak	-	NR

Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#112	#29
Pass ExplPExl	#82	#65
PPAExp	#110	#20
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#74	#57
DB HavocDB	#55	#32

Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'26 Profile: Remains Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Florida last year (34-24)
Florida beat Ole Miss in 2024 (24-17)

MISS's OC John David Baker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Trinidad Chambliss	294	445	66%	3937	22	3	8.8
Walker Howard (Tr)	18	41	44%	155	0	3	3.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joshua Dye (Tr)	270	1660	24	6.1	92
Kewan Lacy	306	1567	24	5.1	73
Trinidad Chambliss	133	527	8	4.0	41
Makhi Frazier (Tr)	116	520	2	4.5	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Deuce Alexander	44	684	2	15.5	88
Johntay Cook II	47	559	2	11.9	59
Darrell Gill Jr. (Tr)	32	506	5	15.8	43
Caleb Odom	19	197	2	10.4	40

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Patrick Toney (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keaton Thomas (Tr)	99	7	1	1	3
Luke Ferrelli (Tr)	91	5	1	1	1
Suntarine Perkins	81	13	5	12	5
Kamarion Franklin	69	9	5	14	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kamarion Franklin	69	9	5	14	3
William Echoles	68	12	5	6	5
Jonathan Maldonado (Tr)	38	9	5	1	4
Suntarine Perkins	81	13	5	12	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antonio Kite	33	0	0	0	5
Suntarine Perkins	81	13	5	12	5
William Echoles	68	12	5	6	5

FLA's OC Buster Faulkner (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tramell Jones Jr.	21	35	60%	191	2	0	5.5
Aaron Philo (Tr)	21	28	75%	373	1	1	13.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jadan Baugh	220	1170	8	5.3	26
London Montgomery (Tr)	156	742	7	4.8	51
Evan Pryor (Tr)	76	522	3	6.9	46
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)	14	61	0	4.4	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)	58	534	3	9.2	48
Vernell Brown III	40	524	0	13.1	60
Micah Mays Jr. (Tr)	18	302	2	16.8	52
Evan Chieca (Tr)	31	255	4	8.2	34

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Brad White (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Graham	76	7	2	7	4
Bryce Thornton	56	3	1	5	6
Aaron Chiles	52	3	1	1	1
Jaden Robinson	51	4	2	4	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emmanuel Oybadejo	41	7	5	6	5
Jayden Woods	27	5	4	3	1
Kamran James	44	5	3	3	2
Brendan Bett	40	4	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Thornton	56	3	1	5	6
Emmanuel Oybadejo	41	7	5	6	5
Myles Graham	76	7	2	7	4