Fri, Jan 10 2025
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Postseason
·
Neutral Site
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🏟 Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL
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Turf
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65,326 cap
Notre Dame✈ 1,139 miSame TZ
Penn State✈ 1,035 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Penn State,
while Game Control favors Notre Dame.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Penn State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Notre Dame wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Penn State -1.5
O/U 45.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Notre Dame
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Notre Dame 2024 Schedule
Notre Dame's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Notre Dame at Texas A&M | +3.0W23–13 | 47.0 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Notre Dame vs Northern Illinois | -28.5L14–16 | 46.5 | L14–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Notre Dame at Purdue | -11.5W66–7 | 45.5 | W66–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Notre Dame vs Miami (OH) | -27.5W28–3 | 44.0 | W28–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Notre Dame vs Louisville | -6.5W31–24 | 45.0 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Notre Dame vs Stanford | -22.5W49–7 | 45.5 | W49–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech | -14.0W31–13 | 49.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Notre Dame vs Navy | -14.0W51–14 | 50.5 | W51–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Notre Dame vs Florida State | -25.5W52–3 | 44.5 | W52–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Notre Dame vs Virginia | -20.5W35–14 | 51.0 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Notre Dame vs Army | -14.5W49–14 | 44.5 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Notre Dame at USC | -6.5W49–35 | 52.5 | W49–35 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/20 | Notre Dame vs Indiana | -7.0W27–17 | 50.0 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/2 | Notre Dame vs Georgia | -1.5W23–10 | 46.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/9 | Notre Dame vs Penn State | +1.5W27–24 | 45.5 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/20 | Notre Dame vs Ohio State | +8.5L23–34 | 45.5 | L23–34 | O | N |
Penn State 2024 Schedule
Penn State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Penn State at West Virginia | -7.5W34–12 | 48.0 | W34–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Penn State vs Bowling Green | -35.5W34–27 | 51.5 | W34–27 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Penn State vs Kent State | -49.0W56–0 | 58.0 | W56–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Penn State vs Illinois | -19.5W21–7 | 48.0 | W21–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Penn State vs UCLA | -30.0W27–11 | 48.0 | W27–11 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Penn State at USC | -3.5W33–30 | 51.5 | W33–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Penn State at Wisconsin | -6.5W28–13 | 47.0 | W28–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Penn State vs Ohio State | +3.0L13–20 | 47.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Penn State vs Washington | -13.5W35–6 | 48.0 | W35–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Penn State at Purdue | -30.0W49–10 | 51.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Penn State at Minnesota | -11.0W26–25 | 45.0 | W26–25 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Penn State vs Maryland | -26.5W44–7 | 50.5 | W44–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Penn State vs Oregon | +3.5L37–45 | 51.5 | L37–45 | O | N |
| Sat 12/21 | Penn State vs SMU | -9.0W38–10 | 52.5 | W38–10 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Penn State vs Boise State | -11.5W31–14 | 54.5 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/9 | Penn State vs Notre Dame | -1.5L24–27 | 45.5 | L24–27 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Notre Dame
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +0.16
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 15 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Notre Dame Edge
Notre Dame +8.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 15 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Penn State
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Penn State
34.2 — 26.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Notre Dame won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Notre Dame
Marcus Freeman #1
19–8 (70%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Mike Denbrock
Yr 1
#1
DC
Al Golden
Yr 3
#1
Penn State
James Franklin #1
88–39 (69%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Andy Kotelnicki
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tom Allen
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓