Sat, Oct 5 2024
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Beaver Stadium
University Park, PA
·
Turf
·
106,572 cap
UCLA✈ 2,237 mi+3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Penn State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Penn State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Penn State wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Penn State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Penn State -30
O/U 48.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Penn State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UCLA 2024 Schedule
UCLA's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | UCLA at Hawai'i | -13.5W16–13 | 55.5 | W16–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | UCLA vs Indiana | +3.5L13–42 | 46.5 | L13–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | UCLA at LSU | +21.5L17–34 | 56.5 | L17–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | UCLA vs Oregon | +23.5L13–34 | 54.5 | L13–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | UCLA at Penn State | +30.0L11–27 | 48.0 | L11–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | UCLA vs Minnesota | +3.5L17–21 | 39.0 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | UCLA at Rutgers | +4.0W35–32 | 42.5 | W35–32 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | UCLA at Nebraska | +7.5W27–20 | 38.5 | W27–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/8 | UCLA vs Iowa | +6.5W20–17 | 44.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/15 | UCLA at Washington | +4.5L19–31 | 47.0 | L19–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | UCLA vs USC | +5.0L13–19 | 53.0 | L13–19 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | UCLA vs Fresno State | -7.5W20–13 | 46.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
Penn State 2024 Schedule
Penn State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Penn State at West Virginia | -7.5W34–12 | 48.0 | W34–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Penn State vs Bowling Green | -35.5W34–27 | 51.5 | W34–27 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Penn State vs Kent State | -49.0W56–0 | 58.0 | W56–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Penn State vs Illinois | -19.5W21–7 | 48.0 | W21–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Penn State vs UCLA | -30.0W27–11 | 48.0 | W27–11 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Penn State at USC | -3.5W33–30 | 51.5 | W33–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Penn State at Wisconsin | -6.5W28–13 | 47.0 | W28–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Penn State vs Ohio State | +3.0L13–20 | 47.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Penn State vs Washington | -13.5W35–6 | 48.0 | W35–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Penn State at Purdue | -30.0W49–10 | 51.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Penn State at Minnesota | -11.0W26–25 | 45.0 | W26–25 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Penn State vs Maryland | -26.5W44–7 | 50.5 | W44–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Penn State vs Oregon | +3.5L37–45 | 51.5 | L37–45 | O | N |
| Sat 12/21 | Penn State vs SMU | -9.0W38–10 | 52.5 | W38–10 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Penn State vs Boise State | -11.5W31–14 | 54.5 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/9 | Penn State vs Notre Dame | -1.5L24–27 | 45.5 | L24–27 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Penn State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +1.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +50.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Penn State
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Penn State
69.3 — 10.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Penn State won by 16
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Penn State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UCLA
DeShaun Foster #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Eric Bieniemy
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ikaika Malloe
Yr 1
#1
Penn State
James Franklin #1
88–39 (69%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Andy Kotelnicki
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tom Allen
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓