Sat, Nov 2 2024
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Beaver Stadium
University Park, PA
·
Turf
·
106,572 cap
Ohio State✈ 277 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Ohio State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ohio State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Ohio State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Ohio State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Ohio State -3
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ohio State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio State 2024 Schedule
Ohio State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Ohio State vs Akron | -50.5W52–6 | 58.5 | W52–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Ohio State vs Western Michigan | -37.5W56–0 | 54.5 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Ohio State vs Marshall | -40.0W49–14 | 57.0 | W49–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Ohio State at Michigan State | -23.5W38–7 | 48.5 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Ohio State vs Iowa | -17.0W35–7 | 46.0 | W35–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Ohio State at Oregon | -3.5L31–32 | 54.5 | L31–32 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Ohio State vs Nebraska | -25.0W21–17 | 48.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Ohio State at Penn State | -3.0W20–13 | 47.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Ohio State vs Purdue | -37.5W45–0 | 55.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Ohio State vs Northwestern | -28.0W31–7 | 43.5 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Ohio State vs Indiana | -10.5W38–15 | 52.5 | W38–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Ohio State vs Michigan | -20.5L10–13 | 41.5 | L10–13 | U | N |
| Sat 12/21 | Ohio State vs Tennessee | -7.5W42–17 | 47.0 | W42–17 | O | Y |
| Wed 1/1 | Ohio State vs Oregon | -2.5W41–21 | 55.5 | W41–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 1/10 | Ohio State vs Texas | -6.5W28–14 | 51.5 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/20 | Ohio State vs Notre Dame | -8.5W34–23 | 45.5 | W34–23 | O | Y |
Penn State 2024 Schedule
Penn State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Penn State at West Virginia | -7.5W34–12 | 48.0 | W34–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Penn State vs Bowling Green | -35.5W34–27 | 51.5 | W34–27 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Penn State vs Kent State | -49.0W56–0 | 58.0 | W56–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Penn State vs Illinois | -19.5W21–7 | 48.0 | W21–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Penn State vs UCLA | -30.0W27–11 | 48.0 | W27–11 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Penn State at USC | -3.5W33–30 | 51.5 | W33–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Penn State at Wisconsin | -6.5W28–13 | 47.0 | W28–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Penn State vs Ohio State | +3.0L13–20 | 47.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Penn State vs Washington | -13.5W35–6 | 48.0 | W35–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Penn State at Purdue | -30.0W49–10 | 51.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Penn State at Minnesota | -11.0W26–25 | 45.0 | W26–25 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Penn State vs Maryland | -26.5W44–7 | 50.5 | W44–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Penn State vs Oregon | +3.5L37–45 | 51.5 | L37–45 | O | N |
| Sat 12/21 | Penn State vs SMU | -9.0W38–10 | 52.5 | W38–10 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Penn State vs Boise State | -11.5W31–14 | 54.5 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/9 | Penn State vs Notre Dame | -1.5L24–27 | 45.5 | L24–27 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ohio State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ohio State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +0.43
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +18.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ohio State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ohio State
Ryan Day #1
56–8 (88%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Chip Kelly
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jim Knowles
Yr 3
#1
Penn State
James Franklin #1
88–39 (69%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Andy Kotelnicki
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tom Allen
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓