Sat, Nov 30 2024
·
Week 14
·
🏟 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Los Angeles, CA
·
Turf
·
93,607 cap
Notre Dame✈ 1,815 mi-3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Notre Dame
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Notre Dame entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Notre Dame wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Notre Dame wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Notre Dame -6.5
O/U 52.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Notre Dame
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Notre Dame 2024 Schedule
Notre Dame's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Notre Dame at Texas A&M | +3.0W23–13 | 47.0 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Notre Dame vs Northern Illinois | -28.5L14–16 | 46.5 | L14–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Notre Dame at Purdue | -11.5W66–7 | 45.5 | W66–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Notre Dame vs Miami (OH) | -27.5W28–3 | 44.0 | W28–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Notre Dame vs Louisville | -6.5W31–24 | 45.0 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Notre Dame vs Stanford | -22.5W49–7 | 45.5 | W49–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech | -14.0W31–13 | 49.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Notre Dame vs Navy | -14.0W51–14 | 50.5 | W51–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Notre Dame vs Florida State | -25.5W52–3 | 44.5 | W52–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Notre Dame vs Virginia | -20.5W35–14 | 51.0 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Notre Dame vs Army | -14.5W49–14 | 44.5 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Notre Dame at USC | -6.5W49–35 | 52.5 | W49–35 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/20 | Notre Dame vs Indiana | -7.0W27–17 | 50.0 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/2 | Notre Dame vs Georgia | -1.5W23–10 | 46.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/9 | Notre Dame vs Penn State | +1.5W27–24 | 45.5 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/20 | Notre Dame vs Ohio State | +8.5L23–34 | 45.5 | L23–34 | O | N |
USC 2024 Schedule
USC's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/1 | USC vs LSU | +4.0W27–20 | 66.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | USC vs Utah State | -30.5W48–0 | 62.5 | W48–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | USC at Michigan | -4.0L24–27 | 44.0 | L24–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | USC vs Wisconsin | -14.0W38–21 | 50.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | USC at Minnesota | -8.5L17–24 | 45.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | USC vs Penn State | +3.5L30–33 | 51.5 | L30–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | USC at Maryland | -6.5L28–29 | 56.5 | L28–29 | O | N |
| Fri 10/25 | USC vs Rutgers | -14.0W42–20 | 57.0 | W42–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | USC at Washington | -2.0L21–26 | 55.0 | L21–26 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | USC vs Nebraska | -6.5W28–20 | 51.0 | W28–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | USC at UCLA | -5.0W19–13 | 53.0 | W19–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | USC vs Notre Dame | +6.5L35–49 | 52.5 | L35–49 | O | N |
| Fri 12/27 | USC vs Texas A&M | +3.5W35–31 | 56.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Notre Dame
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Notre Dame
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Notre Dame
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Notre Dame Edge
Notre Dame +0.45
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Notre Dame Edge
Notre Dame +20.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
USC
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Notre Dame
14.7 — 61.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Notre Dame won by 14
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Notre Dame with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Notre Dame
Marcus Freeman #1
19–8 (70%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Mike Denbrock
Yr 1
#1
DC
Al Golden
Yr 3
#1
USC
Lincoln Riley #1
19–8 (70%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Josh Henson
Yr 3
#1
DC
D'Anton Lynn
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓