Illinois at Penn State Week 5 College Football Matchup Illinois at Penn State Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 28 2024 · Week 5 · 🏟 Beaver Stadium University Park, PA · Turf · 106,572 cap
Illinois✈ 547 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
7 21
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Illinois
15
ILL +19.5
Penn State
34
P&R Line Penn State -18.5
P&R Total O/U 49
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Penn State -19.5 · O/U 48.0
Matchup Prediction
Penn State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Penn State entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Penn State wins
Strong
Game Control
58.6%
Penn State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Penn State -19.5
O/U 48.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Penn State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Penn State 3rd straight Home Game 🚌 Illinois 2nd straight Road Game
Illinois 2024 Schedule
Illinois's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Illinois vs Eastern Illinois-28.5W45–050.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/7Illinois vs Kansas+4.5W23–1758.5W23–17UY
Sat 9/14Illinois vs Central Michigan-21.5W30–949.5W30–9UN
Fri 9/20Illinois at Nebraska+9.5W31–2441.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/28Illinois at Penn State+19.5L7–2148.0L7–21UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Illinois vs Purdue-22.5W50–4947.5W50–49ON
Sat 10/19Illinois vs Michigan+6.0W21–744.0W21–7UY
Sat 10/26Illinois at Oregon+22.5L9–3854.0L9–38UN
Sat 11/2Illinois vs Minnesota+2.5L17–2547.0L17–25UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Illinois vs Michigan State-2.0W38–1647.5W38–16OY
Sat 11/23Illinois at Rutgers+2.0W38–3148.0W38–31OY
Sat 11/30Illinois vs Northwestern-8.5W38–2842.5W38–28OY
Tue 12/31Illinois vs South Carolina+9.5W21–1750.0W21–17UY
Penn State 2024 Schedule
Penn State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Penn State at West Virginia-7.5W34–1248.0W34–12UY
Sat 9/7Penn State vs Bowling Green-35.5W34–2751.5W34–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Penn State vs Kent State-49.0W56–058.0W56–0UY
Sat 9/28Penn State vs Illinois-19.5W21–748.0W21–7UN
Sat 10/5Penn State vs UCLA-30.0W27–1148.0W27–11UN
Sat 10/12Penn State at USC-3.5W33–3051.5W33–30ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26Penn State at Wisconsin-6.5W28–1347.0W28–13UY
Sat 11/2Penn State vs Ohio State+3.0L13–2047.5L13–20UN
Sat 11/9Penn State vs Washington-13.5W35–648.0W35–6UY
Sat 11/16Penn State at Purdue-30.0W49–1051.5W49–10OY
Sat 11/23Penn State at Minnesota-11.0W26–2545.0W26–25ON
Sat 11/30Penn State vs Maryland-26.5W44–750.5W44–7OY
Sat 12/7Penn State vs Oregon+3.5L37–4551.5L37–45ON
Sat 12/21Penn State vs SMU-9.0W38–1052.5W38–10UY
Tue 12/31Penn State vs Boise State-11.5W31–1454.5W31–14UY
Thu 1/9Penn State vs Notre Dame-1.5L24–2745.5L24–27ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Penn State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Penn State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Illinois #31
+0.297
Penn State #11
+0.495
Penn State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Illinois #16
+0.487
Penn State #11
+0.597
Penn State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Illinois #117
0.133
Penn State #38
0.181
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Penn State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Illinois #39
+7.443
Penn State #9
+8.174
Penn State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Illinois #45
+0.825
Penn State #4
+0.976
Penn State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Illinois #46
69.8
Penn State #73
71.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Illinois Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Penn State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Illinois
8.0
Penn State
8.8
Offense Rating
Illinois
18.9
Penn State
19.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Illinois
10.9
Penn State
10.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Penn State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Illinois #108
0.67
Penn State #20
2.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Illinois #23
0.33
Penn State #5
0.67
Penn State +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Penn State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Illinois #1
55.2
Penn State #1
66.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Illinois #35
21.6
Penn State #14
16.6
Penn State +11.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Penn State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
18–19 (49%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Barry Lunney Jr. Yr 3 #1
DC Aaron Henry Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Penn State
James Franklin #1
88–39 (69%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Andy Kotelnicki Yr 1 #1
DC Tom Allen Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself