Sacramento State at Stanford - 2023 Matchup Preview

Sacramento State Hornets at Stanford Cardinal

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Stanford -7 (60.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Sacramento State 30 - Stanford: 23

Hornets (1 - 0) (1 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (30 - 23 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 15 MPH
Our Line: -10.5 (SP+ STAN -12)
STAN Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%

Cardinal (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Taylor (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 21 - 38 (18 - 37 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.4 - 9.6 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SAC Players
STAN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Sacramento State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16	Sacramento State at Stanford	+7.0	60.5	W 30 - 23	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sacramento State's Schedule

Stanford's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Stanford at Hawai'i	-2.0	54.0	W 37 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Stanford at USC	+28.5	70.5	L 10 - 56	U	N
Sat 9/16	Stanford vs Sacramento State	-7.0	60.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/23	Stanford vs Arizona	+13.0	60.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Stanford vs Oregon	+27.0	59.5	L 6 - 42	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/13	Stanford at Colorado	+13.0	59.0	W 46 - 43	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Stanford vs UCLA	+17.0	52.0	L 7 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/28	Stanford vs Washington	+27.5	62.0	L 33 - 42	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Stanford at Washington State	+13.0	59.5	W 10 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Stanford at Oregon State	+21.5	51.5	L 17 - 62	O	N
Sat 11/18	Stanford vs California	+6.5	52.5	L 15 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/25	Stanford vs Notre Dame	+26.0	50.5	L 23 - 56	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SAC		0%	30	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	23	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
STAN	#114 (.1)	38% (114)	20.6	41% (95)	2.61 (130)	119	36% (114)	233	3.4 (101)	#133 (.35)	51% (133)	37.7	56% (133)	48% (129)	5.22 (133)	59.1	1.2	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SAC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
STAN	#114 (.1)	40% (101)		41% (95)	2.72 (116)	134	39% (98)	191	3.67 (92)	#120 (.27)	47% (119)		45% (92)	48% (124)	4.53 (124)	49	1.8	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SAC Offense	1	30	30	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
STAN Defense	12	37.7	37.1	51.4%	5.22	1	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	56%	48%	11%	.35

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SAC Defense	1	23	23	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
STAN Offense	12	20.6	18.1	37.6%	3.4	1.2	20	352	119	233	3.4	42%	57%	41%	36%	21%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Sacramento State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Stanford	12	31:16	19.5	36%	33%	6.3	59.1	1.2	1	4.3	1.9	0	27.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SAC Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
STAN Defense	12	45% (13)	56% (133)	-	-	-	-	.25 (120)	3.45 (124)	76% (87)	7% (129)	0.9 (25)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SAC Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
STAN Offense	12	42% (114)	41% (95)	34.5	118.8	3.4	15 (100)	.06 (114)	2.61 (130)	71% (90)	13% (122)	0.99 (74)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SAC Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
STAN Defense	12	55% (124)	48% (129)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.45 (130)	1.7 (89)	29% (125)	41% (133)	.66 (133)	4% (130)	2.1 (93)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SAC Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
STAN Offense	12	57% (17)	36% (114)	19.4	35.6	233	6.6	12	11 (117)	10 (56)	.16 (106)	1.5 (84)	36% (120)	29% (77)	.28 (87)	8% (126)	2 (71)

Sacramento State's Power Ratings
Sacramento State's Power Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Offense Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Defense Rating: NR
2023 Talent Rating: #175
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Sacramento State's 2023 Expected Record: -
Sacramento State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Big Sky Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State: Stanford: -10.535

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State: Stanford: -12.3

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -10.535 #129
Stanford's Offense Rating: 12.41 #107
Stanford's Defense Rating: 22.01 #133
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 17 #36
Stanford's 2023 Expected Record: 2.40 - 9.60
Stanford's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.3 #109
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #94
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #117

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Sacramento State Scoring
Offense: 30 PPG
Offense on Road: 30
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

Sacramento State's 2023 Record
Record: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 1
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Sacramento State 32
Stanford 23

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Sacramento State 30
Stanford 25

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Sacramento State 34
Stanford 21

Total Points: 55

Stanford Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.1
Defense: 37.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 37.1

Stanford's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 0 - 7
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/16	Stanford	23	Sacramento State	30	Stanford -7	Sacramento State	60.5	Under
2010	09/04	Stanford	52	Sacramento State	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Stanford	1	0	0 Overs
Sacramento State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#NR) SAC at (#129) STAN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SAC	STAN
Power RatePwr	NR	#129
SP+SP+	NR	#109
Perf GradeGrade	NR	#133
OffenseOff	NR	#118
DefenseDef	NR	#134
Spec TeamsST	NR	#80
TalentTal	#175	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	#36

Sacramento State Injury Report

Stanford Injury Report

Sacramento State on Offense


CategoryCat	SAC Off	STAN Def
Perf GradePerf	NR	#134
SuccessSuc	NR	#133
ExplosiveExp	NR	#63
PPAPPA	NR	#133
PowerPwr	NR	#133
SP+SP+	NR	#117
Pts POPPO	NR	#133
HavocHav	NR	#133

Sacramento State Run Game


CategoryCat	SAC Off	STAN Def
Run GameRun	NR	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#133
Run ExplRExp	NR	#25
PPAExp	NR	#120
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#124
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#98
TackleTak	-	#76

Sacramento State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SAC Off	STAN Def
Pass GamePass	NR	#131
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#129
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#89
PPAExp	NR	#130
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	#132
F7 HavocF7	NR	#129
DB HavocDB	NR	#130

Stanford on Offense


CategoryCat	STAN Off	SAC Def
Perf GradePerf	#118	NR
SuccessSuc	#114	NR
ExplosiveExp	#68	NR
PPAPPA	#114	NR
PowerPwr	#107	NR
SP+SP+	#94	NR
Pts POPPO	#101	NR
HavocHav	#128	NR

Stanford Run Game


CategoryCat	STAN Off	SAC Def
Run GameRun	#121	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#95	NR
Run ExplRExp	#74	NR
PPAExp	#114	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#113	-
OL YdsOLY	#130	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#130	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Stanford Pass Game


CategoryCat	STAN Off	SAC Def
Pass GamePass	#110	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#114	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#84	NR
PPAExp	#106	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#121	NR
F7 HavocF7	#122	NR
DB HavocDB	#126	NR

Program Comparison
STAN 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

SAC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Stanford Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 70° - Wind: 15 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Stanford -7.0 (60.5)
Sacramento State won at Stanford this year (30-23)

Previous Matchups
Sacramento State beat Stanford in 2023 (30-23)

SAC's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carson Conklin	255	406	63%	2759	27	8	6.8
Kaiden Bennett	22	45	49%	269	1	3	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Tau-Tolliver	183	954	7	5.2	70
Curron Borders	65	361	1	5.6	45
Ezra Moleni	33	170	2	5.2	25
Michael Johnson	12	94	0	7.8	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anderson Grover (Tr)	59	782	7	13.3	54
Jared Gipson	53	715	9	13.5	78
Danny Scudero	50	650	4	13.0	41
Elijah Tau-Tolliver	37	287	2	7.8	27

View Sacramento State's Full Roster

SAC's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Cameron Broussard	31	0	0	3
DeShawn Lynch	22	3	1	1
Kameron Rocha	11	1	0	0
DeVaughn Houston	7	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mason Brosseau	7	3	2	1	0
DeShawn Lynch	22	3	1	0	1
Cameron Broussard	31	0	0	0	3
Kameron Rocha	11	1	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Cameron Broussard	31	0	0	3
Zelmar Vedder	5	0	0	2
DeShawn Lynch	22	3	1	1

STAN's OC Troy Taylor (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ashton Daniels	191	327	58%	2247	11	8	6.9
Justin Lamson (Tr)	38	88	43%	504	0	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justin Lamson (Tr)	120	334	5	2.8	49
Ashton Daniels	110	296	3	2.7	24
E.J. Smith	53	216	1	4.1	34
Casey Filkins	38	215	1	5.7	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elic Ayomanor	62	1013	6	16.3	97
Tiger Bachmeier	36	409	2	11.4	41
Sam Roush	28	288	0	10.3	31
E.J. Smith	33	242	0	7.3	53

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gaethan Bernadel (Tr)	81	3	1	4	1
Tristan Sinclair	65	5	1	4	0
Collin Wright	51	4	1	0	4
Mitch Leigber	50	2	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Bailey	31	6	5	2	0
Anthony Franklin	27	6	3	4	1
Tevarua Tafiti	46	5	3	9	1
Mitch Leigber	50	2	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Zahran Manley	28	2	0	4
Collin Wright	51	4	1	4
Alaka'i Gilman	45	0	0	3