Liberty at Massachusetts - 2022 Matchup Preview

Liberty Flames at Massachusetts Minutemen

Saturday, October 8th 2022 (3:30 PM EDT)
Liberty -22.5 (45.5)
Liberty 42 - Massachusetts: 24 (FBS Independents)

Flames (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (26 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (20 - 26 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LIB 2nd straight Road Game
UMASS is playing their 6th straight game
LIB is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -12 (SP+ LIB -29)
Projected Score: LIB: 30 - UMASS: 19 (49)
LIB Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
LIB Travel: 494 miles

Minutemen (1 - 11) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (13 - 35 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LIB Players
UMASS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Liberty's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Liberty at Southern Miss	-3.5	50.0	W 29 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/10	Liberty vs UAB	+6.0	50.0	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Liberty at Wake Forest	+17.5	64.0	L 36 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Liberty vs Akron	-26.5	52.5	W 21 - 12	U	N
Sat 10/1	Liberty at Old Dominion	-3.5	48.0	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Liberty at Massachusetts	-22.5	45.5	W 42 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/15	Liberty vs Gardner-Webb	-24.5	55.0	W 21 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/22	Liberty vs BYU	+7.0	58.0	W 41 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Liberty at Arkansas	+14.5	61.5	W 21 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Liberty at UConn	-13.5	45.0	L 33 - 36	O	N
Sat 11/19	Liberty vs Virginia Tech	-10.5	46.0	L 22 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/26	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-24.0	51.0	L 14 - 49	O	N
Tue 12/20	Liberty vs Toledo	+4.0	51.5	L 19 - 21	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

Massachusetts's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Massachusetts at Tulane	+28.5	59.0	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/10	Massachusetts at Toledo	+28.0	49.0	L 10 - 55	O	N
Sat 9/17	Massachusetts vs Stony Brook	-1.0	44.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/24	Massachusetts at Temple	+10.0	44.0	L 0 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/1	Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan	+20.0	53.0	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Massachusetts vs Liberty	+22.5	45.5	L 24 - 42	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Massachusetts vs Buffalo	+17.0	47.5	L 7 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Massachusetts vs New Mexico State	+1.0	39.0	L 13 - 23	U	N
Fri 11/4	Massachusetts at UConn	+15.0	39.5	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/12	Massachusetts at Arkansas State	+17.0	49.0	L 33 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Massachusetts at Texas A&M	+32.0	46.0	L 3 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Massachusetts vs Army	+20.0	45.5	L 7 - 44	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB	.29	45%	25.6	52%	3.72	181	39%	255	4.57	.13	41%	26.5	44%	38%	3.62	66.5	1.7	0.8
UMASS	.09	38%	11.1	43%	3.03	147	32%	153	3.34	.42	49%	38.6	50%	48%	5.06	59.5	1.7	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UMASS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Offense	13	25.6	19.7	45.4%	4.57	1.7	23	436	181	255	4.6	48%	51%	52%	39%	17%	.29
UMASS Defense	12	38.6	34.7	48.7%	5.06	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	50%	48%	13%	.42

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Defense	13	26.5	25.7	41.1%	3.62	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	44%	38%	18%	.13
UMASS Offense	12	11.1	12.8	37.5%	3.34	1.7	16	300	147	153	4.2	53%	46%	43%	32%	21%	.09

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Liberty	13	30:19	22.6	43%	43%	7.1	66.5	1.7	0.8	7.5	2.8	2	28.5
Massachusetts	12	29:45	16.3	33%	44%	6.3	59.5	1.7	0.8	3.8	0.9	0	26.9

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Offense	13	48%	52%	39.1	180.8	4.6	26	.35	3.72	79%	11%	1.11
UMASS Defense	12	59%	50%	-	-	-	-	.31	3.21	77%	8%	1.2

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Defense	13	56%	44%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.17	75%	12%	0.87
UMASS Offense	12	53%	43%	34.7	147	4.2	14	.18	3.03	65%	14%	1.07

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Offense	13	51%	39%	17.4	29.3	255	8.7	14.7	33	15	.25	1.7	30%	32%	.31	6%	2.1
UMASS Defense	12	41%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	.58	1.8	29%	37%	.7	5%	2.5

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Defense	13	43%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.16	1.5	31%	29%	.26	6%	1.9
UMASS Offense	12	46%	32%	13.6	27.6	152.7	5.5	11.2	11	11	.04	1.6	34%	28%	.31	7%	2.2

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: NR
Liberty's Offense Rating: NR
Liberty's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #146
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Liberty's 2022 Expected Record: -
Liberty's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.5 #73
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #83
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #57

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: Massachusetts: -12.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -1.5 Massachusetts: -30.3

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -12.65 NR
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: NR
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Massachusetts's 2022 Expected Record: -
Massachusetts's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -30.3 #133
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 7.5 #132
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #110

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Liberty's 2022 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 30
Massachusetts 19

Projected Total Points: 49

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 12.8
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Massachusetts's 2022 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/16	Massachusetts	34	Liberty	35	Liberty -17	Massachusetts	53.0	Over
2023	11/18	Liberty	49	Massachusetts	25	Liberty -26.5	Massachusetts	64.5	Over
2022	10/08	Massachusetts	24	Liberty	42	Liberty -22.5	Massachusetts	45.5	Over
2021	10/30	Liberty	62	Massachusetts	17	Liberty -35.5	Liberty	56.0	Over
2020	11/27	Liberty	45	Massachusetts	0	Liberty -35	Liberty	57.5	Under
2019	11/02	Massachusetts	21	Liberty	63	Liberty -23.5	Liberty	72.0	Over
2018	11/03	Massachusetts	62	Liberty	59	Liberty -1.5	Massachusetts	66.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Massachusetts	1	4	6 Overs
Liberty	6	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 3	5 - 2	2 - 1	3 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 4	2 - 5	1 - 3	1 - 2

(#) LIB at (#) UMASS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LIB	UMASS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#73	#133
Perf GradeGrade	#81	#135
OffenseOff	#95	#135
DefenseDef	#72	#116
Spec TeamsST	#4	#134
TalentTal	#146	#124
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Liberty Injury Report

Massachusetts Injury Report

Liberty on Offense


CategoryCat	LIB Off	UMASS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#95	#116
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#83	#110
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Liberty Run Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#99	#104
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#78	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#109

Liberty Pass Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#125	#106
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#21	#83
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Massachusetts on Offense


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	LIB Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#135	#72
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#132	#57
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Massachusetts Run Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#129	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#129	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#117

Massachusetts Pass Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#135	#71
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#47	#86
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'22 Profile: Remains Poor G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'22 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Liberty 22.5 (45.5)
Liberty won at Massachusetts this year (42-24)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat Massachusetts in 2024 (35-34)
Liberty beat Massachusetts in 2023 (49-25)

LIB's OC Kent Austin (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Josh Aldridge (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UMASS's OC Steve Casula (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD