Bowling Green at Buffalo - 2021 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 30th 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
Buffalo -13.5 (51.5)
Bowling Green 56 - Buffalo: 44 (Mid-American)

Falcons (4 - 8) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (4 - 16)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (24 - 29 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BUFF is playing their 9th straight game
BGSU is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: -4 (SP+ BUFF -3)
Projected Score: BGSU: 23 - BUFF: 25 (48)
BUFF Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
BGSU Travel: 272 miles

Bulls (4 - 8) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Maurice Linguist (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 24 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BGSU Players
BUFF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Bowling Green's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	Bowling Green at Tennessee	+37.0	60.5	L 6 - 38	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Bowling Green vs South Alabama	+14.5	48.0	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Bowling Green vs Murray State	+2.5	44.0	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Bowling Green at Minnesota	+30.5	52.5	W 14 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Bowling Green at Kent State	+16.5	56.0	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Bowling Green vs Akron	-14.0	46.0	L 20 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/16	Bowling Green at Northern Illinois	+9.0	44.5	L 26 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Bowling Green vs Eastern Michigan	+4.5	49.5	L 24 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/30	Bowling Green at Buffalo	+13.5	51.5	W 56 - 44	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/10	Bowling Green vs Toledo	+10.5	50.0	L 17 - 49	O	N
Tue 11/16	Bowling Green at Miami (OH)	+17.0	52.0	L 7 - 34	U	N
Fri 11/26	Bowling Green vs Ohio	+6.0	48.0	W 21 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Buffalo's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	Buffalo vs Wagner	-44.0	54.5	W 69 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Buffalo at Nebraska	+13.5	54.0	L 3 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/18	Buffalo vs Coastal Carolina	+14.0	58.0	L 25 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Buffalo at Old Dominion	-13.0	50.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/2	Buffalo vs Western Michigan	+7.0	59.5	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Buffalo at Kent State	+7.0	66.0	L 38 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/16	Buffalo vs Ohio	-7.5	54.5	W 27 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/23	Buffalo at Akron	-13.5	58.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Buffalo vs Bowling Green	-13.5	51.5	L 44 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/9	Buffalo at Miami (OH)	+7.0	58.0	L 18 - 45	O	N
Wed 11/17	Buffalo vs Northern Illinois	+2.0	59.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
Tue 11/23	Buffalo at Ball State	+6.0	59.5	L 3 - 20	U	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	-.03	36%	20.5	42%	3.02	184	30%	142	1.67	.38	48%	24.3	50%	44%	4.82	43.2	2.2	0.2
BUFF	.37	49%	24	49%	3.52	288	50%	191	4.79	.11	40%	23.5	41%	39%	3.15	52.7	0.9	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BUFF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Offense	5	20.5	24	36%	1.67	2.2	16	326	184	142	4.9	53%	47%	42%	30%	19%	-.03
BUFF Defense	7	23.5	24.1	39.7%	3.15	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	41%	39%	16%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Defense	5	24.3	29	48.2%	4.82	0.2	-	-	-	-	-	64%	36%	50%	44%	16%	.38
BUFF Offense	7	24	24.6	49.4%	4.79	0.9	22	478	288	191	6.7	64%	36%	49%	50%	9%	.37

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Bowling Green	5	26:24	15.6	26%	21%	6	43.2	2.2	0.2	6.8	1.4	0	28.8
Buffalo	7	30:33	22	48%	54%	6	52.7	0.9	1.4	5.3	2.9	1	29.5

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense	5	53%	42%	37.8	184	4.9	5	-	3.02	85%	10%	0.66
BUFF Defense	7	52%	41%	-	-	-	-	.06	3.25	70%	10%	0.75

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense	5	64%	50%	-	-	-	-	.4	3.72	75%	12%	1.27
BUFF Offense	7	64%	49%	43	287.9	6.7	32	.37	3.52	80%	4%	1.27

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense	5	47%	30%	10.8	25	142.4	5.7	13.2	1	7	-.07	1.6	36%	17%	-.14	8%	2.2
BUFF Defense	7	48%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.16	1.6	30%	21%	.08	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense	5	36%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	.33	1.7	30%	45%	.69	3%	1.9
BUFF Offense	7	36%	50%	13.9	22.3	190.6	8.6	13.8	7	4	.37	1.4	27%	37%	.5	5%	1.8

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: NR
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: NR
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Bowling Green's 2021 Expected Record: -
Bowling Green's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.4 #112
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.1 #126
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #95

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: Buffalo: -2.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -12.4 Buffalo: -9.5

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -2.25 NR
Buffalo's Offense Rating: NR
Buffalo's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Buffalo's 2021 Expected Record: -
Buffalo's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.5 #104
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #90
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #106

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Bowling Green's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 8 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Buffalo 25
Bowling Green 23

Projected Total Points: 48

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.1

Buffalo's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Bowling Green	3	Buffalo	28	Bowling Green -2.5	Buffalo	44.5	Under
2023	10/14	Buffalo	14	Bowling Green	24	Buffalo -3	Bowling Green	44.5	Under
2022	10/08	Bowling Green	7	Buffalo	38	Buffalo -2	Buffalo	55.5	Under
2021	10/30	Buffalo	44	Bowling Green	56	Buffalo -13.5	Bowling Green	51.5	Over
2020	11/17	Bowling Green	17	Buffalo	42	Buffalo -31.5	Bowling Green	57.5	Over
2019	11/29	Buffalo	49	Bowling Green	7	Buffalo -28	Buffalo	53.5	Over
2018	11/23	Bowling Green	14	Buffalo	44	Buffalo -16	Buffalo	62.0	Under
2017	11/07	Buffalo	38	Bowling Green	28	Buffalo -7	Buffalo	61.0	Over
2016	11/25	Bowling Green	27	Buffalo	19	Bowling Green -11	Buffalo	60.0	Under
2015	10/03	Buffalo	22	Bowling Green	28	Bowling Green -6.5	Buffalo	67.5	Under
2014	10/04	Bowling Green	36	Buffalo	35	Bowling Green -5	Buffalo	0
2013	11/29	Buffalo	7	Bowling Green	24	Bowling Green -3.5	Bowling Green	52.0	Under
2012	11/23	Bowling Green	21	Buffalo	7
2011	11/25	Buffalo	28	Bowling Green	42
2010	10/02	Bowling Green	26	Buffalo	28
2009	11/03	Buffalo	29	Bowling Green	30
2008	11/21	Bowling Green	34	Buffalo	40
2007	11/17	Buffalo	17	Bowling Green	31
2006	09/09	Bowling Green	48	Buffalo	40
2005	10/15	Buffalo	7	Bowling Green	27
2001	09/08	Bowling Green	35	Buffalo	0
2000	09/22	Buffalo	20	Bowling Green	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Buffalo	9	8	4 Overs
Bowling Green	13	4	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 14	4 - 8	2 - 5	2 - 3
Road Teams	14 - 8	8 - 4	3 - 2	5 - 2

(#) BGSU at (#) BUFF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BGSU	BUFF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#112	#104
Perf GradeGrade	#121	#96
OffenseOff	#131	#99
DefenseDef	#85	#72
Spec TeamsST	#90	#89
TalentTal	#110	#124
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Bowling Green Injury Report

Buffalo Injury Report

Bowling Green on Offense


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	BUFF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#131	#72
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#126	#106
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Bowling Green Run Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#70	#27
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#130	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#16

Bowling Green Pass Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#132
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#128	#8
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Buffalo on Offense


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BGSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#99	#85
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#90	#95
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Buffalo Run Game


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#70	#83
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#43

Buffalo Pass Game


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#115	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#95	#51
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Buffalo -13.5 (51.5)
Bowling Green won at Buffalo this year (56-44)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Bowling Green last year (28-3)
Bowling Green beat Buffalo in 2023 (24-14)

BGSU's OC Terry Malone (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Eric Lewis (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

BUFF's OC Shane Montgomery (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Cauthen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD