North Carolina at Illinois - 2016 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at Illinois Fighting Illini(#11)Illinois logo
Saturday, September 10th 2016 (7:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -7 (59.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
North Carolina 48 - Illinois: 23

 
Tar Heels (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (33 - 23 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 15 MPH
ILL 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -9  (SP+ UNC -22.5)
Projected Score: UNC: 30 - ILL: 26 (56)
UNC Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 578 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Fighting Illini (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 20 - 32 (23 - 31 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 North Carolina vs Georgia+3.560.0L 24 - 33UN
Sat 9/10 North Carolina at Illinois-7.059.5W 48 - 23OY
Sat 9/17 North Carolina vs James Madison-24.5
Sat 9/24 North Carolina vs Pittsburgh-7.067.0W 37 - 36ON
Sat 10/1 North Carolina at Florida State+12.072.5W 37 - 35UY
Sat 10/8 North Carolina vs Virginia Tech-5.549.5L 3 - 34UN
Sat 10/15 North Carolina at Miami+7.067.0W 20 - 13UY
Sat 10/22 North Carolina at Virginia-9.068.5W 35 - 14UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5 North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-9.563.5W 48 - 20OY
Thu 11/10 North Carolina at Duke-10.566.5L 27 - 28UN
Sat 11/19 North Carolina vs The Citadel-24.0
Fri 11/25 North Carolina vs NC State-10.063.0L 21 - 28UN
Fri 12/30 North Carolina vs Stanford+2.555.0L 23 - 25UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Illinois's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Illinois vs Murray State-31.0
Sat 9/10 Illinois vs North Carolina+7.059.5L 23 - 48ON
Sat 9/17 Illinois vs Western Michigan+1.556.0L 10 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1 Illinois at Nebraska+21.553.0L 16 - 31UY
Sat 10/8 Illinois vs Purdue-9.049.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 10/15 Illinois at Rutgers-6.052.0W 24 - 7UY
Sat 10/22 Illinois at Michigan+28.051.5L 8 - 41UN
Sat 10/29 Illinois vs Minnesota+10.046.5L 17 - 40ON
Sat 11/5 Illinois vs Michigan State+7.047.5W 31 - 27OY
Sat 11/12 Illinois at Wisconsin+26.542.0L 3 - 48ON
Sat 11/19 Illinois vs Iowa+10.045.5L 0 - 28UN
Sat 11/26 Illinois at Northwestern+15.048.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Important Stats (2016)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC.2946%32.345%2.8914646%2934.13.1745%24.947%42%361.31.20.8
ILL.0838%19.737%2.7714137%1752.88.1646%31.946%44%3.3853.31.71.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
ILL#31 (.25)45% (45)45% (51)3.14 (49)14044% (44)1984.23 (39)#76 (.18)46% (115)50% (127)43% (90)3.48 (37)390.91.5



Overall Stats 2016
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1332.333.446.3%4.131.2224391462934.743%55%45%46%17%.29
ILL Defense1231.930.646.2%3.381.5 - - - - - 59%39%46%44%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1324.922.645.5%30.8 - - - - - 62%37%47%42%14%.17
ILL Offense1219.723.437.9%2.881.7153151411754.846%52%37%37%19%.08

Additional Stats 2016
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1324:2321.745%40%7.661.31.20.85.21.9330.2
Illinois1225:591528%44%6.353.31.71.58.12.3130.3
Run Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1343%45%30.8145.84.721.122.8964%11%1.01
ILL Defense1259%46% - - - - .133.0170%13%0.91
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1362%47% - - - - .143.0968%10%0.84
ILL Offense1246%37%29.4140.54.814.072.7755%12%1.17

Pass Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1355%46%24.135.2293.28.312.2306.451.733%41%.576%2
ILL Defense1239%44% - - - - - - 7.231.532%37%.384%1.6
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1337%42% - - - - - - 1.211.529%35%.225%1.5
ILL Offense1252%37%15.329.8174.65.911.5139.111.434%28%.27%1.8

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
North Carolina's 2016 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9  #17
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.5  #21
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6  #41

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina:    Illinois: -0.85

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 15.9   Illinois: -6.7




Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: -0.85 NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Illinois's 2016 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7  #94
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.7  #104
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5  #77

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.4
Defense: 24.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

North Carolina's 2016 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 30
Illinois 26

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Illinois 30
North Carolina 29

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
North Carolina 32
Illinois 23

Total Points: 55
Illinois Scoring
Offense: 19.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.4
Defense: 31.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.6

Illinois's 2016 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201609/10Illinois23North Carolina48North Carolina -7North Carolina59.5Over
201509/19North Carolina48Illinois14North Carolina -7North Carolina63.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Illinois001 Overs
North Carolina221 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1

(#) UNC at (#) ILL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCILL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #17 #94
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #29 #64
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
North Carolina on Offense
CategoryCat
UNC OffILL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #21 #77
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffILL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
North Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffILL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Illinois on Offense
CategoryCatILL OffUNC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #104 #41
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Illinois Run Game
CategoryCat
ILL OffUNC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Illinois Pass Game
CategoryCatILL OffUNC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

UNC 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 72° - Wind: 15 mph
Rematch from Week 2
North Carolina 7.0 (59.5)
North Carolina won at Illinois this year (48-23)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
UNC's OC ()
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UNC's DC ()
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ILL's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
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ILL's DC ()
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