North Carolina at Virginia - 2016 Matchup Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers(#18)

Saturday, October 22nd 2016 (3:00 PM EDT)
North Carolina -9 (68.5) (0) Open: 0.0
North Carolina 35 - Virginia: 14 (ACC)

Tar Heels (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (33 - 23 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC 2nd straight Road Game
UVA 2nd straight Home Game
UNC is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: -7.5 (SP+ UNC -19.5)
Projected Score: UNC: 32 - UVA: 28 (60)
UNC Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
UNC Travel: 150 miles

Cavaliers (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 23 - 34 (26 - 36 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
UVA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	North Carolina vs Georgia	+3.5	60.0	L 24 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/10	North Carolina at Illinois	-7.0	59.5	W 48 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/17	North Carolina vs James Madison	-24.5
Sat 9/24	North Carolina vs Pittsburgh	-7.0	67.0	W 37 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/1	North Carolina at Florida State	+12.0	72.5	W 37 - 35	U	Y
Sat 10/8	North Carolina vs Virginia Tech	-5.5	49.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/15	North Carolina at Miami	+7.0	67.0	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/22	North Carolina at Virginia	-9.0	68.5	W 35 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-9.5	63.5	W 48 - 20	O	Y
Thu 11/10	North Carolina at Duke	-10.5	66.5	L 27 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/19	North Carolina vs The Citadel	-24.0
Fri 11/25	North Carolina vs NC State	-10.0	63.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Fri 12/30	North Carolina vs Stanford	+2.5	55.0	L 23 - 25	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Virginia's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Virginia vs Richmond	-14.0
Sat 9/10	Virginia at Oregon	+20.5	71.5	L 26 - 44	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Virginia at UConn	+6.5	47.5	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/24	Virginia vs Central Michigan	+2.0	51.5	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Virginia at Duke	+5.0	60.5	W 34 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	Virginia vs Pittsburgh	+5.0	60.5	L 31 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/22	Virginia vs North Carolina	+9.0	68.5	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/29	Virginia vs Louisville	+27.0	69.5	L 25 - 32	U	Y
Sat 11/5	Virginia at Wake Forest	+2.5	45.0	L 20 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/12	Virginia vs Miami	+11.0	55.5	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/19	Virginia at Georgia Tech	+10.5	54.0	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/26	Virginia at Virginia Tech	+18.5	53.5	L 10 - 52	O	N

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	.29	46%	32.3	45%	2.89	146	46%	293	4.13	.17	45%	24.9	47%	42%	3	61.3	1.2	0.8
UVA	.04	41%	22.5	43%	2.75	114	38%	239	3.21	.23	45%	33.8	40%	48%	3.45	57.9	2.2	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (80)		47% (34)	3.32 (22)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#70 (.17)	41% (53)		44% (82)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2
UVA	#102 (.13)	40% (103)		43% (77)	3.29 (25)	133	37% (113)	229	3.47 (106)	#116 (.27)	43% (80)		44% (77)	42% (77)	4.04 (94)	45.3	1.6	1.3

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	13	32.3	33.4	46.3%	4.13	1.2	22	439	146	293	4.7	43%	55%	45%	46%	17%	.29
UVA Defense	12	33.8	36.3	44.8%	3.45	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	45%	40%	48%	16%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	13	24.9	22.6	45.5%	3	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	62%	37%	47%	42%	14%	.17
UVA Offense	12	22.5	25.5	40.6%	3.21	2.2	20	353	114	239	3.6	40%	60%	43%	38%	17%	.04

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	13	24:23	21.7	45%	40%	7.6	61.3	1.2	0.8	5.2	1.9	3	30.2
Virginia	12	29:00	19.8	34%	52%	6.3	57.9	2.2	1.1	5.5	2	0	31.2

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	13	43%	45%	30.8	145.8	4.7	21	.12	2.89	64%	11%	1.01
UVA Defense	12	53%	40%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.86	73%	10%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	13	62%	47%	-	-	-	-	.14	3.09	68%	10%	0.84
UVA Offense	12	40%	43%	32	113.6	3.6	13	.06	2.75	68%	10%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	13	55%	46%	24.1	35.2	293.2	8.3	12.2	30	6	.45	1.7	33%	41%	.57	6%	2
UVA Defense	12	45%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.44	1.7	32%	34%	.42	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	13	37%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	.21	1.5	29%	35%	.22	5%	1.5
UVA Offense	12	60%	38%	22.2	40.6	239.3	5.9	10.8	23	16	.03	1.4	34%	26%	.05	7%	1.8

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
North Carolina's 2016 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9 #17
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #21
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #41

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: Virginia: 0.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 15.9 Virginia: -3.8

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 0.6 NR
Virginia's Offense Rating: NR
Virginia's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Virginia's 2016 Expected Record: -
Virginia's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #83
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #88
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #67

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.4
Defense: 24.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

North Carolina's 2016 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 32
Virginia 28

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Virginia 31
North Carolina 30

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
North Carolina 34
Virginia 24

Total Points: 58

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.5
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 36.3

Virginia's 2016 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	North Carolina	16	Virginia	17	Virginia -12.5	North Carolina	51.5	Under
2024	10/26	Virginia	14	North Carolina	41	Virginia -3.5	North Carolina	58.5	Under
2023	10/21	North Carolina	27	Virginia	31	North Carolina -24	Virginia	58.0	Push
2022	11/05	Virginia	28	North Carolina	31	North Carolina -7	Virginia	61.5	Under
2021	09/18	North Carolina	59	Virginia	39	North Carolina -7.5	North Carolina	67.0	Over
2020	10/31	Virginia	44	North Carolina	41	North Carolina -7.0	Virginia	0
2019	11/02	North Carolina	31	Virginia	38	Virginia -1	Virginia	48.0	Over
2018	10/27	Virginia	31	North Carolina	21	Virginia -7.5	Virginia	51.0	Over
2017	10/14	North Carolina	14	Virginia	20	Virginia -3	Virginia	54.5	Under
2016	10/22	Virginia	14	North Carolina	35	North Carolina -9	North Carolina	68.5	Under
2015	10/24	North Carolina	26	Virginia	13	North Carolina -12	North Carolina	58.0	Under
2014	10/25	Virginia	27	North Carolina	28	Virginia -7.5	North Carolina	0
2013	11/09	North Carolina	45	Virginia	14	North Carolina -14	North Carolina	0
2012	11/15	Virginia	13	North Carolina	37
2011	09/17	North Carolina	28	Virginia	17
2010	10/16	Virginia	10	North Carolina	44
2009	10/03	North Carolina	3	Virginia	16
2008	10/18	Virginia	16	North Carolina	13
2007	09/15	North Carolina	20	Virginia	22
2006	10/19	Virginia	23	North Carolina	0
2005	10/22	North Carolina	7	Virginia	5
2004	09/11	Virginia	56	North Carolina	24
2003	10/04	North Carolina	13	Virginia	38
2002	10/19	Virginia	37	North Carolina	27
2001	10/13	North Carolina	30	Virginia	24
2000	10/27	Virginia	17	North Carolina	6

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Virginia	14	6	3 Overs
North Carolina	12	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 13	7 - 6	4 - 3	3 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 13	6 - 7	3 - 3	3 - 4

(#) UNC at (#) UVA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNC	UVA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#17	#83
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#29	#42
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

North Carolina Injury Report

Virginia Injury Report

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	UVA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#21	#67
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Virginia on Offense


CategoryCat	UVA Off	UNC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#88	#41
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Virginia Run Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Virginia Pass Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

UNC 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 59° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 8
North Carolina 9.0 (68.5)
North Carolina won at Virginia this year (35-14)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Virginia last year (41-14)
Virginia beat North Carolina in 2023 (31-27)
North Carolina beat Virginia in 2022 (31-28)

UNC's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UVA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD