North Carolina at Florida State - 2016 Matchup Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels at Florida State Seminoles(#8)

Saturday, October 1st 2016 (3:30 PM EDT)
Florida State -12 (72.5) (0) Open: 0.0
North Carolina 37 - Florida State: 35 (ACC)

Tar Heels (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (33 - 23 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FSU is playing their 5th straight game
UNC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -6.5 (SP+ FSU -8)
Projected Score: UNC: 30 - FSU: 33 (63)
FSU Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
UNC Travel: 485 miles

Seminoles (10 - 3) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 35 - 25 (36 - 18 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	North Carolina vs Georgia	+3.5	60.0	L 24 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/10	North Carolina at Illinois	-7.0	59.5	W 48 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/17	North Carolina vs James Madison	-24.5
Sat 9/24	North Carolina vs Pittsburgh	-7.0	67.0	W 37 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/1	North Carolina at Florida State	+12.0	72.5	W 37 - 35	U	Y
Sat 10/8	North Carolina vs Virginia Tech	-5.5	49.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/15	North Carolina at Miami	+7.0	67.0	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/22	North Carolina at Virginia	-9.0	68.5	W 35 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-9.5	63.5	W 48 - 20	O	Y
Thu 11/10	North Carolina at Duke	-10.5	66.5	L 27 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/19	North Carolina vs The Citadel	-24.0
Fri 11/25	North Carolina vs NC State	-10.0	63.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Fri 12/30	North Carolina vs Stanford	+2.5	55.0	L 23 - 25	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Florida State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/5	Florida State vs Ole Miss	-5.0	57.5	W 45 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Florida State vs Charleston Southern	-59.5
Sat 9/17	Florida State at Louisville	-4.5	65.0	L 20 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/24	Florida State at South Florida	-5.5	64.0	W 55 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Florida State vs North Carolina	-12.0	72.5	L 35 - 37	U	N
Sat 10/8	Florida State at Miami	+1.5	61.5	W 20 - 19	U	Y
Sat 10/15	Florida State vs Wake Forest	-25.5	51.0	W 17 - 6	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Florida State vs Clemson	+3.0	58.5	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Florida State at NC State	-6.5	58.0	W 24 - 20	U	N
Fri 11/11	Florida State vs Boston College	-23.0	47.0	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Florida State at Syracuse	-20.0	65.5	W 45 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Florida State vs Florida	-5.0	47.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Fri 12/30	Florida State vs Michigan	+6.5	51.0	W 33 - 32	O	Y

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	.29	46%	32.3	45%	2.89	146	46%	293	4.13	.17	45%	24.9	47%	42%	3	61.3	1.2	0.8
FSU	.28	49%	35.1	50%	2.92	202	45%	264	4.14	.11	38%	25	37%	37%	3.2	72.9	1.5	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (80)		47% (34)	3.32 (22)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#70 (.17)	41% (53)		44% (82)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2
FSU	#125 (.06)	35% (128)		40% (103)	2.9 (92)	91	31% (130)	180	2.88 (131)	#112 (.25)	41% (56)		42% (62)	39% (52)	3.62 (46)	47.9	1.8	0.5

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	13	32.3	33.4	46.3%	4.13	1.2	22	439	146	293	4.7	43%	55%	45%	46%	17%	.29
FSU Defense	13	25	18	38.3%	3.2	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	37%	37%	19%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	13	24.9	22.6	45.5%	3	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	62%	37%	47%	42%	14%	.17
FSU Offense	13	35.1	35.7	48.7%	4.14	1.5	25	466	202	264	5.1	50%	48%	50%	45%	18%	.28

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	13	24:23	21.7	45%	40%	7.6	61.3	1.2	0.8	5.2	1.9	3	30.2
Florida State	13	32:55	24.7	44%	60%	7.7	72.9	1.5	1.8	7.1	3.8	1	30.2

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	13	43%	45%	30.8	145.8	4.7	21	.12	2.89	64%	11%	1.01
FSU Defense	13	44%	37%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.74	76%	12%	1.08

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	13	62%	47%	-	-	-	-	.14	3.09	68%	10%	0.84
FSU Offense	13	50%	50%	39.8	202.3	5.1	33	.23	2.92	79%	11%	1.06

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	13	55%	46%	24.1	35.2	293.2	8.3	12.2	30	6	.45	1.7	33%	41%	.57	6%	2
FSU Defense	13	54%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.17	1.6	36%	30%	.28	6%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	13	37%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	.21	1.5	29%	35%	.22	5%	1.5
FSU Offense	13	48%	45%	18.8	32.4	264.1	8.2	14.1	23	8	.35	1.6	31%	43%	.41	7%	1.7

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
North Carolina's 2016 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9 #17
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #21
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #41

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: Florida State: 14.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 15.9 Florida State: 24.0

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 14.5 NR
Florida State's Offense Rating: NR
Florida State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Florida State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Florida State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.0 #7
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #5
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8 #17

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.4
Defense: 24.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

North Carolina's 2016 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Florida State 33
North Carolina 30

Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida State 36
North Carolina 33

Total Points: 69

Based on Entire Season
Florida State 30
North Carolina 27

Total Points: 57

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 35.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.7
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Florida State's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Florida State	11	North Carolina	35	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	50.5	Under
2021	10/09	North Carolina	25	Florida State	35	North Carolina -17.5	Florida State	64.5	Under
2020	10/17	Florida State	31	North Carolina	28	North Carolina -13.5	Florida State	65.0	Under
2016	10/01	Florida State	35	North Carolina	37	Florida State -12	North Carolina	72.5	Under
2010	11/06	Florida State	35	North Carolina	37
2009	10/22	North Carolina	27	Florida State	30
2004	10/02	Florida State	38	North Carolina	16
2003	08/30	North Carolina	0	Florida State	37
2001	09/22	North Carolina	41	Florida State	9
2000	09/15	Florida State	63	North Carolina	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	6	2	0 Overs
North Carolina	4	2	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 6	1 - 3	0 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 4	3 - 1	1 - 1	2 - 0

(#) UNC at (#) FSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNC	FSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#17	#7
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#29	#4
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

North Carolina Injury Report

Florida State Injury Report

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	FSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#21	#17
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Florida State on Offense


CategoryCat	FSU Off	UNC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#5	#41
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Florida State Run Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Florida State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

UNC 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 85° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 5
Florida State -12.0 (72.5)
North Carolina won at Florida State this year (37-35)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Florida State last year (35-11)

UNC's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

FSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD