Illinois at Northwestern - 2016 Matchup Preview

(#21)Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats

Saturday, November 26th 2016 (12:00 PM EST)
Northwestern -15 (48.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Northwestern 42 - Illinois: 21 (Big Ten)

Fighting Illini (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 20 - 32 (14 - 34 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NW is playing their 7th straight game
ILL is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: -7.5 (SP+ NW -10)
Projected Score: ILL: 17 - NW: 28 (45)
NW Win prob: 85% | Cover: 46%
ILL Travel: 139 miles

Wildcats (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 26 - 22 (20 - 18 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ILL Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Illinois's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Illinois vs Murray State	-31.0
Sat 9/10	Illinois vs North Carolina	+7.0	59.5	L 23 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/17	Illinois vs Western Michigan	+1.5	56.0	L 10 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1	Illinois at Nebraska	+21.5	53.0	L 16 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Illinois vs Purdue	-9.0	49.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/15	Illinois at Rutgers	-6.0	52.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Illinois at Michigan	+28.0	51.5	L 8 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/29	Illinois vs Minnesota	+10.0	46.5	L 17 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/5	Illinois vs Michigan State	+7.0	47.5	W 31 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Illinois at Wisconsin	+26.5	42.0	L 3 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/19	Illinois vs Iowa	+10.0	45.5	L 0 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/26	Illinois at Northwestern	+15.0	48.5	L 21 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Northwestern's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Northwestern vs Western Michigan	-6.5	53.5	L 21 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/10	Northwestern vs Illinois State	-12.5
Sat 9/17	Northwestern vs Duke	-4.0	44.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/24	Northwestern vs Nebraska	+6.5	48.0	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/1	Northwestern at Iowa	+12.0	44.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	Northwestern at Michigan State	+6.5	41.0	W 54 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/22	Northwestern vs Indiana	-2.5	54.0	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/29	Northwestern at Ohio State	+24.0	53.5	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/5	Northwestern vs Wisconsin	+6.5	41.5	L 7 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/12	Northwestern at Purdue	-10.5	58.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Northwestern at Minnesota	+2.0	46.0	L 12 - 29	U	N
Sat 11/26	Northwestern vs Illinois	-15.0	48.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Wed 12/28	Northwestern vs Pittsburgh	+3.0	63.0	W 31 - 24	U	Y

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	.08	38%	19.7	37%	2.77	141	37%	175	2.88	.16	46%	31.9	46%	44%	3.38	53.3	1.7	1.5
NW	.12	40%	26	37%	2.66	153	43%	245	3.28	.09	42%	22.2	42%	41%	2.78	29.9	1.2	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	#31 (.25)	45% (45)		45% (51)	3.14 (49)	140	44% (44)	198	4.23 (39)	#76 (.18)	46% (115)		50% (127)	43% (90)	3.48 (37)	39	0.9	1.5
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Offense	12	19.7	14.4	37.9%	2.88	1.7	15	315	141	175	4.8	46%	52%	37%	37%	19%	.08
NW Defense	13	22.2	17.7	42.4%	2.78	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	42%	41%	16%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Defense	12	31.9	33.8	46.2%	3.38	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	59%	39%	46%	44%	17%	.16
NW Offense	13	26	19.7	40.3%	3.28	1.2	22	398	153	245	4	46%	53%	37%	43%	18%	.12

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Illinois	12	25:59	15	28%	44%	6.3	53.3	1.7	1.5	8.1	2.3	1	30.3
Northwestern	13	28:38	21.6	39%	53%	3.6	29.9	1.2	1.9	5.9	2.1	1	28.6

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Offense	12	46%	37%	29.4	140.5	4.8	14	.07	2.77	55%	12%	1.17
NW Defense	13	46%	42%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.68	77%	9%	0.9

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Defense	12	59%	46%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.01	70%	13%	0.91
NW Offense	13	46%	37%	38.5	153.2	4	22	.05	2.66	76%	11%	1.02

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Offense	12	52%	37%	15.3	29.8	174.6	5.9	11.5	13	9	.11	1.4	34%	28%	.2	7%	1.8
NW Defense	13	52%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.15	1.4	33%	28%	.1	7%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Defense	12	39%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.23	1.5	32%	37%	.38	4%	1.6
NW Offense	13	53%	43%	21.7	37.2	245.1	6.6	11.3	22	9	.19	1.5	34%	30%	.25	8%	2

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Illinois's 2016 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #94
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.7 #104
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #77

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: Northwestern: 3.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: -6.7 Northwestern: 2.9

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 3.95 NR
Northwestern's Offense Rating: NR
Northwestern's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Northwestern's 2016 Expected Record: -
Northwestern's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.9 #61
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.5 #37

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 19.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.4
Defense: 31.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.8

Illinois's 2016 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Northwestern 28
Illinois 17

Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Northwestern 28
Illinois 15

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Northwestern 28
Illinois 19

Total Points: 47

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Northwestern's 2016 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Illinois	20	Northwestern	13	Illinois -7	Push	44.5	Under
2024	11/30	Northwestern	28	Illinois	38	Illinois -8.5	Illinois	42.5	Over
2023	11/25	Illinois	43	Northwestern	45	Illinois -5	Northwestern	46.5	Over
2022	11/26	Northwestern	3	Illinois	41	Illinois -15.0	Illinois	38.0	Over
2021	11/27	Illinois	47	Northwestern	14	Illinois -7	Illinois	45.0	Over
2020	12/12	Northwestern	28	Illinois	10	Northwestern -13	Northwestern	41.0	Under
2019	11/30	Illinois	10	Northwestern	29	Illinois -6.5	Northwestern	38.0	Over
2018	11/24	Northwestern	24	Illinois	16	Northwestern -14.5	Illinois	56.0	Under
2017	11/25	Illinois	7	Northwestern	42	Northwestern -16.5	Northwestern	46.0	Over
2016	11/26	Northwestern	42	Illinois	21	Northwestern -15	Northwestern	48.5	Over
2015	11/28	Illinois	14	Northwestern	24	Northwestern -3.5	Northwestern	42.0	Under
2014	11/29	Northwestern	33	Illinois	47	Northwestern -9	Illinois	0
2013	11/30	Illinois	34	Northwestern	37	Northwestern -4	Illinois	0
2012	11/24	Northwestern	50	Illinois	14
2011	10/01	Illinois	38	Northwestern	35
2010	11/20	Northwestern	27	Illinois	48
2009	11/14	Illinois	16	Northwestern	21
2008	11/22	Northwestern	27	Illinois	10
2007	11/17	Illinois	41	Northwestern	22
2006	11/18	Northwestern	27	Illinois	16
2005	11/19	Illinois	21	Northwestern	38
2004	11/20	Northwestern	28	Illinois	21
2003	11/22	Illinois	20	Northwestern	37
2001	11/22	Illinois	34	Northwestern	28
2000	11/17	Northwestern	61	Illinois	23

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	16	6	7 Overs
Illinois	9	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	4 - 8	3 - 4	1 - 4
Road Teams	12 - 13	8 - 4	4 - 1	4 - 3

(#) ILL at (#) NW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ILL	NW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#94	#61
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#64	#45
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Illinois Injury Report

Northwestern Injury Report

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	NW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#104	#37
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	ILL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#75	#77
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Top G5

ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ryan Field
Conditions:
Temp: 43° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 13
Northwestern -15.0 (48.5)
Northwestern won vs Illinois this year (42-21)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Northwestern last year (38-28)
Northwestern beat Illinois in 2023 (45-43)
Illinois beat Northwestern in 2022 (41-3)

ILL's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NW's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD