Michigan State at Illinois - 2016 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Illinois Fighting Illini

Saturday, November 5th 2016 (12:00 PM EDT)
Michigan State -7 (47.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Illinois 31 - Michigan State: 27 (Big Ten)

Spartans (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ILL 2nd straight Home Game
ILL is playing their 6th straight game
MSU is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: -4.5 (SP+ MSU -14)
Projected Score: MSU: 21 - ILL: 31 (52)
MSU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
MSU Travel: 266 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Fighting Illini (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 14 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
ILL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Michigan State vs Furman	-45.0
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/17	Michigan State at Notre Dame	+7.0	49.0	W 36 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Michigan State vs Wisconsin	-6.0	42.5	L 6 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/1	Michigan State at Indiana	-8.0	52.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/8	Michigan State vs BYU	-5.0	48.5	L 14 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/15	Michigan State vs Northwestern	-6.5	41.0	L 40 - 54	O	N
Sat 10/22	Michigan State at Maryland	-2.5	49.0	L 17 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/29	Michigan State vs Michigan	+21.0	49.5	L 23 - 32	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Michigan State at Illinois	-7.0	47.5	L 27 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/12	Michigan State vs Rutgers	-15.5	53.5	W 49 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Michigan State vs Ohio State	+23.5	50.0	L 16 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Michigan State at Penn State	+13.5	53.5	L 12 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Illinois's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Illinois vs Murray State	-31.0
Sat 9/10	Illinois vs North Carolina	+7.0	59.5	L 23 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/17	Illinois vs Western Michigan	+1.5	56.0	L 10 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1	Illinois at Nebraska	+21.5	53.0	L 16 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Illinois vs Purdue	-9.0	49.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/15	Illinois at Rutgers	-6.0	52.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Illinois at Michigan	+28.0	51.5	L 8 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/29	Illinois vs Minnesota	+10.0	46.5	L 17 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/5	Illinois vs Michigan State	+7.0	47.5	W 31 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Illinois at Wisconsin	+26.5	42.0	L 3 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/19	Illinois vs Iowa	+10.0	45.5	L 0 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/26	Illinois at Northwestern	+15.0	48.5	L 21 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2015)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	.15	43%	24.6	43%	2.76	151	42%	234	3.78	.12	41%	29.9	43%	39%	3.08	42.9	1	2
ILL	.06	39%	29.4	40%	2.63	129	36%	243	3.08	.09	40%	23.6	42%	36%	3.45	49.1	1.4	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2015

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	14	24.6	21.6	43.1%	3.78	1	21	386	151	234	3.8	53%	46%	43%	42%	2%	.15
ILL Defense	12	23.6	14.4	40.5%	3.45	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	42%	36%	3%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	14	29.9	32.8	41.5%	3.08	2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	43%	39%	3%	.12
ILL Offense	12	29.4	31.3	38.7%	3.08	1.4	20	373	129	243	4	37%	61%	40%	36%	1%	.06

Additional Stats 2015

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	14	32:51	21.4	48%	42%	5.4	42.9	1	2	0	0	2	31.7
Illinois	12	29:41	20.4	36%	44%	5.5	49.1	1.4	1.8	0	0	3	30.8

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	14	53%	43%	39.4	151.3	3.8	24	.02	2.76	79%	0%	0.85
ILL Defense	12	53%	42%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.66	76%	0%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	14	46%	43%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.74	66%	0%	0.79
ILL Offense	12	37%	40%	32.3	129.3	4	13		2.63	62%	0%	0.94

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	14	46%	42%	17.4	31.4	234.2	7.5	13.4	26	8	.35	1.8	33%	38%	.42	2%	2
ILL Defense	12	46%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.13	1.6	32%	32%	.28	3%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	14	53%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.22	1.7	34%	34%	.4	3%	2
ILL Offense	12	61%	36%	23.8	43.3	243.4	5.6	10.3	16	8	.11	1.5	35%	26%	.13	1%	1.9

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: NR
Michigan State's Offense Rating: NR
Michigan State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Michigan State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Michigan State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #50
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.0 #55
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #39

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: Illinois: -0.85

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 7.4 Illinois: -6.7

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: -0.85 NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Illinois's 2016 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #94
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.7 #104
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #77

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2016 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Illinois 31
Michigan State 21

Projected Total Points: 52

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.4

Illinois's 2016 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/16	Illinois	38	Michigan State	16	Illinois -2	Illinois	47.5	Over
2022	11/05	Illinois	15	Michigan State	23	Illinois -16.5	Michigan State	41.0	Under
2019	11/09	Michigan State	34	Illinois	37	Michigan State -15.5	Illinois	48.0	Over
2016	11/05	Illinois	31	Michigan State	27	Michigan State -7	Illinois	47.5	Over
2013	10/26	Illinois	3	Michigan State	42	Michigan State -13	Michigan State	0
2010	10/16	Michigan State	26	Illinois	6
2009	10/10	Illinois	14	Michigan State	24
2006	09/30	Michigan State	20	Illinois	23
2005	09/24	Illinois	14	Michigan State	61
2004	10/09	Michigan State	38	Illinois	25
2003	10/11	Illinois	14	Michigan State	49
2000	10/27	Michigan State	14	Illinois	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Illinois	4	3	3 Overs
Michigan State	8	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 7	2 - 3	1 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	7 - 5	3 - 2	1 - 1	2 - 1

(#) MSU at (#) ILL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	ILL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#50	#94
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#22	#64
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Michigan State Injury Report

Illinois Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	ILL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#55	#77
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#104	#39
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

MSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Michigan State 7.0 (47.5)
Illinois won vs Michigan State this year (31-27)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Michigan State in 2024 (38-16)

MSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ILL's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD