Sat, Aug 30 2025
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Week 1
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🏟 Jones AT&T Stadium
Lubbock, TX
·
Turf
·
60,862 cap
Arkansas-Pine Bluff✈ 566 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Texas Tech wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -54.5
O/U 63.5
Bovada
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 2025 Schedule
Arkansas-Pine Bluff's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Texas Tech | +54.5L7–67 | 63.5 | L7–67 | O | N |
Texas Tech 2025 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Texas Tech vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -54.5W67–7 | 63.5 | W67–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Texas Tech vs Kent State | -48.5W62–14 | 60.0 | W62–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Texas Tech vs Oregon State | -24.5W45–7 | 61.5 | W45–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Texas Tech at Utah | +3.5W34–10 | 58.5 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Texas Tech at Houston | -13.5W35–11 | 51.5 | W35–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Texas Tech vs Kansas | -13.5W42–17 | 58.5 | W42–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Texas Tech at Arizona State | -7.5L22–26 | 52.5 | L22–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State | -37.5W42–0 | 56.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Texas Tech at Kansas State | -7.5W43–20 | 51.5 | W43–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Texas Tech vs BYU | -13.5W29–7 | 50.5 | W29–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Texas Tech vs UCF | -24.5W48–9 | 48.5 | W48–9 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/29 | Texas Tech at West Virginia | -24.5W49–0 | 53.5 | W49–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/6 | Texas Tech vs BYU | -12.5W34–7 | 50.5 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/1 | Texas Tech vs Oregon | -1.5L0–23 | 50.5 | L0–23 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Edge
Arkansas-Pine Bluff +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas Tech Edge
Texas Tech +49.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓