Oregon at Texas Tech Week 1 College Football Matchup Oregon at Texas Tech Matchup - Week 1
Thu, Jan 1 2026 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Hard Rock Stadium Miami Gardens, FL · Turf · 65,326 cap
Oregon✈ 2,687 mi+3 hr TZ Texas Tech✈ 1,397 mi+1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
23 0
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Oregon
28
Texas Tech
24
P&R Line Oregon -3.5
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas Tech -1.5 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -1.5
O/U 50.5
Draft Kings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Texas Tech 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Oregon 2nd straight Road Game
Oregon 2025 Schedule
Oregon's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Oregon vs Montana State-28.0W59–1356.5W59–13OY
Sat 9/6Oregon vs Oklahoma State-28.5W69–355.5W69–3OY
Sat 9/13Oregon at Northwestern-25.5W34–1450.5W34–14UN
Sat 9/20Oregon vs Oregon State-33.5W41–758.5W41–7UY
Sat 9/27Oregon at Penn State+4.5W30–2452.5W30–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Oregon vs Indiana-7.0L20–3051.5L20–30UN
Sat 10/18Oregon at Rutgers-17.5W56–1062.5W56–10OY
Sat 10/25Oregon vs Wisconsin-31.5W21–744.5W21–7UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Oregon at Iowa-4.5W18–1641.5W18–16UN
Fri 11/14Oregon vs Minnesota-26.5W42–1345.5W42–13OY
Sat 11/22Oregon vs USC-10.5W42–2759.5W42–27OY
Sat 11/29Oregon at Washington-6.5W26–1451.5W26–14UY
Sat 12/20Oregon vs James Madison-22.5W51–3447.5W51–34ON
Thu 1/1Oregon vs Texas Tech+1.5W23–050.5W23–0UY
Fri 1/9Oregon vs Indiana+3.0L22–5650.5L22–56ON
Texas Tech 2025 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Texas Tech vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-54.5W67–763.5W67–7OY
Sat 9/6Texas Tech vs Kent State-48.5W62–1460.0W62–14ON
Sat 9/13Texas Tech vs Oregon State-24.5W45–761.5W45–7UY
Sat 9/20Texas Tech at Utah+3.5W34–1058.5W34–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Texas Tech at Houston-13.5W35–1151.5W35–11UY
Sat 10/11Texas Tech vs Kansas-13.5W42–1758.5W42–17OY
Sat 10/18Texas Tech at Arizona State-7.5L22–2652.5L22–26UN
Sat 10/25Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State-37.5W42–056.5W42–0UY
Sat 11/1Texas Tech at Kansas State-7.5W43–2051.5W43–20OY
Sat 11/8Texas Tech vs BYU-13.5W29–750.5W29–7UY
Sat 11/15Texas Tech vs UCF-24.5W48–948.5W48–9OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29Texas Tech at West Virginia-24.5W49–053.5W49–0UY
Sat 12/6Texas Tech vs BYU-12.5W34–750.5W34–7UY
Thu 1/1Texas Tech vs Oregon-1.5L0–2350.5L0–23UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Texas Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Oregon #13
+0.215
Texas Tech #28
+0.293
Texas Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Oregon #16
+0.417
Texas Tech #38
+0.499
Texas Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Oregon #21
0.182
Texas Tech #1
0.233
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Oregon #36
+6.506
Texas Tech #41
+7.903
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Oregon #17
+0.779
Texas Tech #61
+0.791
Texas Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Oregon #25
68.9
Texas Tech #1
64.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Oregon
24.0
Texas Tech
27.6
Offense Rating
Oregon
26.6
Texas Tech
29.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Oregon
2.6
Texas Tech
1.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Oregon #31
1.92
Texas Tech #1
2.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Oregon #69
0.67
Texas Tech #4
0.42
Texas Tech +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Oregon #1
74.1
Texas Tech #1
81.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Oregon #4
10.6
Texas Tech #5
11.7
Texas Tech +7.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas Tech. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Oregon
Dan Lanning #1
35–5 (88%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Will Stein Yr 1 #1
DC Tosh Lupoi Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
23–15 (61%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Mack Leftwich Yr 1 #1
DC Shiel Wood Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself