Texas Tech at West Virginia Week 14 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at West Virginia Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 29 2025 · Week 14 · 🏟 Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium Morgantown, WV · Turf · 60,000 cap
Texas Tech✈ 1,281 mi+1 hr TZ
49 0
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
39
TTU -24.5
West Virginia
13
P&R Line Texas Tech -26
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas Tech -24.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Texas Tech wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -24.5
O/U 53.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 West Virginia Coming off BYE 🛋 Texas Tech Coming off BYE
Texas Tech 2025 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Texas Tech vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-54.5W67–763.5W67–7OY
Sat 9/6Texas Tech vs Kent State-48.5W62–1460.0W62–14ON
Sat 9/13Texas Tech vs Oregon State-24.5W45–761.5W45–7UY
Sat 9/20Texas Tech at Utah+3.5W34–1058.5W34–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Texas Tech at Houston-13.5W35–1151.5W35–11UY
Sat 10/11Texas Tech vs Kansas-13.5W42–1758.5W42–17OY
Sat 10/18Texas Tech at Arizona State-7.5L22–2652.5L22–26UN
Sat 10/25Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State-37.5W42–056.5W42–0UY
Sat 11/1Texas Tech at Kansas State-7.5W43–2051.5W43–20OY
Sat 11/8Texas Tech vs BYU-13.5W29–750.5W29–7UY
Sat 11/15Texas Tech vs UCF-24.5W48–948.5W48–9OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29Texas Tech at West Virginia-24.5W49–053.5W49–0UY
Sat 12/6Texas Tech vs BYU-12.5W34–750.5W34–7UY
Thu 1/1Texas Tech vs Oregon-1.5L0–2350.5L0–23UN
West Virginia 2025 Schedule
West Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30West Virginia vs Robert Morris-40.0W45–356.5W45–3UY
Sat 9/6West Virginia at Ohio-3.5L10–1758.5L10–17UN
Sat 9/13West Virginia vs Pittsburgh+6.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/20West Virginia at Kansas+12.5L10–4154.5L10–41UN
Sat 9/27West Virginia vs Utah+13.5L14–4846.5L14–48ON
Fri 10/3West Virginia at BYU+19.5L24–3846.5L24–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18West Virginia at UCF+6.5L13–4546.5L13–45ON
Sat 10/25West Virginia vs TCU+16.5L17–2355.5L17–23UY
Sat 11/1West Virginia at Houston+13.5W45–3548.5W45–35OY
Sat 11/8West Virginia vs Colorado-6.5W29–2251.5W29–22UY
Sat 11/15West Virginia at Arizona State+10.0L23–2546.5L23–25OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29West Virginia vs Texas Tech+24.5L0–4953.5L0–49UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Texas Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech #28
+0.399
West Virginia #118
-0.020
Texas Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #38
+0.677
West Virginia #99
+0.195
Texas Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #1
0.233
West Virginia #26
0.177
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #41
+7.902
West Virginia #86
+5.938
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #61
+0.833
West Virginia #121
+0.669
Texas Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #1
64.0
West Virginia #89
71.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
West Virginia
1.2
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
West Virginia
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.2
West Virginia
16.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #1
2.70
West Virginia #108
0.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #4
0.50
West Virginia #110
1.60
Texas Tech +2.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
81.6
West Virginia #1
32.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #5
12.1
West Virginia #127
57.0
Texas Tech +49.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas Tech with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
23–15 (61%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Mack Leftwich Yr 1 #1
DC Shiel Wood Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
West Virginia
Rich Rodriguez #1
60–26 (70%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Rich Rodriguez Yr 1 #1
DC Zac Alley Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself