Texas Tech at Houston Week 6 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at Houston Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 4 2025 · Week 6 · 🏟 John O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium Houston, TX · Turf · 40,000 cap
Texas Tech✈ 467 miSame TZ
35 11
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
33
Houston
18
P&R Line Texas Tech -15.5
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas Tech -13.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -13.5
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Texas Tech Coming off BYE
Texas Tech 2025 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Texas Tech vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-54.5W67–763.5W67–7OY
Sat 9/6Texas Tech vs Kent State-48.5W62–1460.0W62–14ON
Sat 9/13Texas Tech vs Oregon State-24.5W45–761.5W45–7UY
Sat 9/20Texas Tech at Utah+3.5W34–1058.5W34–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Texas Tech at Houston-13.5W35–1151.5W35–11UY
Sat 10/11Texas Tech vs Kansas-13.5W42–1758.5W42–17OY
Sat 10/18Texas Tech at Arizona State-7.5L22–2652.5L22–26UN
Sat 10/25Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State-37.5W42–056.5W42–0UY
Sat 11/1Texas Tech at Kansas State-7.5W43–2051.5W43–20OY
Sat 11/8Texas Tech vs BYU-13.5W29–750.5W29–7UY
Sat 11/15Texas Tech vs UCF-24.5W48–948.5W48–9OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29Texas Tech at West Virginia-24.5W49–053.5W49–0UY
Sat 12/6Texas Tech vs BYU-12.5W34–750.5W34–7UY
Thu 1/1Texas Tech vs Oregon-1.5L0–2350.5L0–23UN
Houston 2025 Schedule
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.5W27–054.5W27–0UY
Sat 9/6Houston at Rice-13.5W35–938.5W35–9OY
Fri 9/12Houston vs Colorado-4.0W36–2045.5W36–20OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 9/26Houston at Oregon State-11.5W27–2448.5W27–24ON
Sat 10/4Houston vs Texas Tech+13.5L11–3551.5L11–35UN
Sat 10/11Houston at Oklahoma State-14.5W39–1747.5W39–17OY
Sat 10/18Houston vs Arizona+1.5W31–2847.5W31–28OY
Sat 10/25Houston at Arizona State+7.0W24–1646.5W24–16UY
Sat 11/1Houston vs West Virginia-13.5L35–4548.5L35–45ON
Fri 11/7Houston at UCF+1.5W30–2747.5W30–27OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Houston vs TCU+1.5L14–1755.5L14–17UN
Sat 11/29Houston at Baylor+2.5W31–2457.5W31–24UY
Sat 12/27Houston vs LSU-1.5W38–3543.5W38–35OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Texas Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech #28
+0.352
Houston #102
+0.025
Texas Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #38
+0.562
Houston #35
+0.350
Texas Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #1
0.233
Houston #58
0.162
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #41
+7.909
Houston #83
+5.959
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #61
+0.843
Houston #74
+0.720
Texas Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #1
64.0
Houston #33
69.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
Houston
8.3
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
Houston
19.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.3
Houston
11.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #1
3.00
Houston #23
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #4
0.67
Houston #70
0.67
Texas Tech +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
91.9
Houston #1
59.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #5
4.4
Houston #61
25.0
Texas Tech +32.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas Tech with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
23–15 (61%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Mack Leftwich Yr 1 #1
DC Shiel Wood Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Houston
Willie Fritz #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Slade Nagle Yr 1 #1
DC Austin Armstrong Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself