UCF at Texas Tech Week 12 College Football Matchup UCF at Texas Tech Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 15 2025 · Week 12 · 🏟 Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock, TX · Turf · 60,862 cap
UCF✈ 1,268 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
9 48
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UCF
11
Texas Tech
39
P&R Line Texas Tech -28.5
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas Tech -24.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Texas Tech wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -24.5
O/U 48.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Texas Tech 2nd straight Home Game
UCF 2025 Schedule
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.5W17–1053.5W17–10UN
Sat 9/6UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.0W68–751.0W68–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20UCF vs North Carolina-7.0W34–946.5W34–9UY
Sat 9/27UCF at Kansas State+5.5L20–3448.5L20–34ON
Sat 10/4UCF vs Kansas+4.0L20–2753.5L20–27UN
Sat 10/11UCF at Cincinnati+10.0L11–2055.5L11–20UY
Sat 10/18UCF vs West Virginia-6.5W45–1346.5W45–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1UCF at Baylor+3.0L3–3058.5L3–30UN
Fri 11/7UCF vs Houston-1.5L27–3047.5L27–30ON
Sat 11/15UCF at Texas Tech+24.5L9–4848.5L9–48ON
Sat 11/22UCF vs Oklahoma State-13.5W17–1447.5W17–14UN
Sat 11/29UCF at BYU+17.5L21–4146.5L21–41ON
Texas Tech 2025 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Texas Tech vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-54.5W67–763.5W67–7OY
Sat 9/6Texas Tech vs Kent State-48.5W62–1460.0W62–14ON
Sat 9/13Texas Tech vs Oregon State-24.5W45–761.5W45–7UY
Sat 9/20Texas Tech at Utah+3.5W34–1058.5W34–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Texas Tech at Houston-13.5W35–1151.5W35–11UY
Sat 10/11Texas Tech vs Kansas-13.5W42–1758.5W42–17OY
Sat 10/18Texas Tech at Arizona State-7.5L22–2652.5L22–26UN
Sat 10/25Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State-37.5W42–056.5W42–0UY
Sat 11/1Texas Tech at Kansas State-7.5W43–2051.5W43–20OY
Sat 11/8Texas Tech vs BYU-13.5W29–750.5W29–7UY
Sat 11/15Texas Tech vs UCF-24.5W48–948.5W48–9OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29Texas Tech at West Virginia-24.5W49–053.5W49–0UY
Sat 12/6Texas Tech vs BYU-12.5W34–750.5W34–7UY
Thu 1/1Texas Tech vs Oregon-1.5L0–2350.5L0–23UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Texas Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UCF #88
+0.049
Texas Tech #28
+0.364
Texas Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UCF #104
+0.183
Texas Tech #38
+0.505
Texas Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UCF #54
0.164
Texas Tech #1
0.233
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UCF #94
+5.899
Texas Tech #41
+7.521
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UCF #107
+0.692
Texas Tech #61
+0.865
Texas Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UCF #85
71.6
Texas Tech #1
64.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UCF
4.2
Texas Tech
27.6
Offense Rating
UCF
17.6
Texas Tech
29.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UCF
13.4
Texas Tech
1.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UCF #83
0.75
Texas Tech #1
2.56
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UCF #89
0.88
Texas Tech #4
0.56
Texas Tech +1.81
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UCF #1
46.8
Texas Tech #1
80.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UCF #98
39.2
Texas Tech #5
13.1
Texas Tech +33.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas Tech
4 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
97.0 — 2.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas Tech won by 39
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas Tech with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UCF
Scott Frost #1
19–7 (73%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Steve Cooper Yr 1 #1
DC Alex Grinch Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
23–15 (61%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Mack Leftwich Yr 1 #1
DC Shiel Wood Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself