North Carolina at UCF Week 4 College Football Matchup North Carolina at UCF Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 20 2025 · Week 4 · 🏟 Bright House Networks Stadium Orlando, FL · Turf · 44,206 cap
North Carolina✈ 519 miSame TZ
9 34
Final
UCF
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
21
UNC +7
UCF
25
P&R Line UCF -3.5
P&R Total O/U 46
Confidence 90 High
Vegas UCF -7 · O/U 46.5
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
North Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
North Carolina wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
UCF -7
O/U 46.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → UCF · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 UCF Coming off BYE
North Carolina 2025 Schedule
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1North Carolina vs TCU+3.0L14–4859.5L14–48ON
Sat 9/6North Carolina at Charlotte-16.5W20–349.5W20–3UY
Sat 9/13North Carolina vs Richmond-24.5W41–647.5W41–6UY
Sat 9/20North Carolina at UCF+7.0L9–3446.5L9–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4North Carolina vs Clemson+15.5L10–3847.5L10–38ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/17North Carolina at California+7.5L18–2145.5L18–21UY
Sat 10/25North Carolina vs Virginia+12.5L16–1751.5L16–17UY
Fri 10/31North Carolina at Syracuse+1.5W27–1045.5W27–10UY
Sat 11/8North Carolina vs Stanford-8.5W20–1541.5W20–15UN
Sat 11/15North Carolina at Wake Forest+3.5L12–2837.5L12–28ON
Sat 11/22North Carolina vs Duke+6.5L25–3250.5L25–32ON
Sat 11/29North Carolina at NC State+7.0L19–4248.5L19–42ON
UCF 2025 Schedule
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.5W17–1053.5W17–10UN
Sat 9/6UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.0W68–751.0W68–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20UCF vs North Carolina-7.0W34–946.5W34–9UY
Sat 9/27UCF at Kansas State+5.5L20–3448.5L20–34ON
Sat 10/4UCF vs Kansas+4.0L20–2753.5L20–27UN
Sat 10/11UCF at Cincinnati+10.0L11–2055.5L11–20UY
Sat 10/18UCF vs West Virginia-6.5W45–1346.5W45–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1UCF at Baylor+3.0L3–3058.5L3–30UN
Fri 11/7UCF vs Houston-1.5L27–3047.5L27–30ON
Sat 11/15UCF at Texas Tech+24.5L9–4848.5L9–48ON
Sat 11/22UCF vs Oklahoma State-13.5W17–1447.5W17–14UN
Sat 11/29UCF at BYU+17.5L21–4146.5L21–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
UCF PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UCF
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina #119
+0.186
UCF #88
+0.318
UCF Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #92
+0.364
UCF #104
+0.385
UCF Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina #91
0.148
UCF #54
0.164
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UCF Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #108
+6.848
UCF #94
+7.068
UCF Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina #115
+0.819
UCF #107
+0.801
North Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina #62
70.7
UCF #85
71.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UCF Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.2
UCF
4.2
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
UCF
17.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
16.0
UCF
13.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #120
0.50
UCF #83
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #63
1.00
UCF #89
1.00
North Carolina +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
66.7
UCF #1
62.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #115
24.7
UCF #98
11.0
North Carolina +3.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UCF
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UCF
91.4 — 4.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
UCF won by 25
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Carolina, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Bill Belichick #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Freddie Kitchens Yr 1 #1
DC Stephen Belichick Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UCF
Scott Frost #1
19–7 (73%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Steve Cooper Yr 1 #1
DC Alex Grinch Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself