Matchup Prediction
Houston
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Houston entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Houston wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Houston wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
UCF -1.5
O/U 47.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → UCF
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Houston 2025 Schedule
Houston's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Houston vs Stephen F. Austin | -24.5W27–0 | 54.5 | W27–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Houston at Rice | -13.5W35–9 | 38.5 | W35–9 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/12 | Houston vs Colorado | -4.0W36–20 | 45.5 | W36–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 9/26 | Houston at Oregon State | -11.5W27–24 | 48.5 | W27–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Houston vs Texas Tech | +13.5L11–35 | 51.5 | L11–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Houston at Oklahoma State | -14.5W39–17 | 47.5 | W39–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Houston vs Arizona | +1.5W31–28 | 47.5 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Houston at Arizona State | +7.0W24–16 | 46.5 | W24–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Houston vs West Virginia | -13.5L35–45 | 48.5 | L35–45 | O | N |
| Fri 11/7 | Houston at UCF | +1.5W30–27 | 47.5 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Houston vs TCU | +1.5L14–17 | 55.5 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Houston at Baylor | +2.5W31–24 | 57.5 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/27 | Houston vs LSU | -1.5W38–35 | 43.5 | W38–35 | O | Y |
UCF 2025 Schedule
UCF's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | UCF vs Jacksonville State | -16.5W17–10 | 53.5 | W17–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | UCF vs North Carolina A&T | -38.0W68–7 | 51.0 | W68–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | UCF vs North Carolina | -7.0W34–9 | 46.5 | W34–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | UCF at Kansas State | +5.5L20–34 | 48.5 | L20–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | UCF vs Kansas | +4.0L20–27 | 53.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | UCF at Cincinnati | +10.0L11–20 | 55.5 | L11–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | UCF vs West Virginia | -6.5W45–13 | 46.5 | W45–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | UCF at Baylor | +3.0L3–30 | 58.5 | L3–30 | U | N |
| Fri 11/7 | UCF vs Houston | -1.5L27–30 | 47.5 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | UCF at Texas Tech | +24.5L9–48 | 48.5 | L9–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | UCF vs Oklahoma State | -13.5W17–14 | 47.5 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | UCF at BYU | +17.5L21–41 | 46.5 | L21–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UCF
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Houston Edge
Houston +0.77
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Houston Edge
Houston +3.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Houston, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Houston
Willie Fritz #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Slade Nagle
Yr 1
#1
DC
Austin Armstrong
Yr 1
#1
UCF
Scott Frost #1
19–7 (73%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Steve Cooper
Yr 1
#1
DC
Alex Grinch
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓