UCF at Cincinnati Week 7 College Football Matchup UCF at Cincinnati Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 11 2025 · Week 7 · 🏟 Nippert Stadium Cincinnati, OH · Turf · 40,000 cap
UCF✈ 751 miSame TZ
Away
11 20
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UCF
19
CIN -10
Cincinnati
35
P&R Line Cincinnati -16
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Cincinnati -10 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Cincinnati has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Cincinnati entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Cincinnati wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Cincinnati wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Cincinnati -10
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Cincinnati · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Cincinnati 2nd straight Home Game
UCF 2025 Schedule
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.5W17–1053.5W17–10UN
Sat 9/6UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.0W68–751.0W68–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20UCF vs North Carolina-7.0W34–946.5W34–9UY
Sat 9/27UCF at Kansas State+5.5L20–3448.5L20–34ON
Sat 10/4UCF vs Kansas+4.0L20–2753.5L20–27UN
Sat 10/11UCF at Cincinnati+10.0L11–2055.5L11–20UY
Sat 10/18UCF vs West Virginia-6.5W45–1346.5W45–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1UCF at Baylor+3.0L3–3058.5L3–30UN
Fri 11/7UCF vs Houston-1.5L27–3047.5L27–30ON
Sat 11/15UCF at Texas Tech+24.5L9–4848.5L9–48ON
Sat 11/22UCF vs Oklahoma State-13.5W17–1447.5W17–14UN
Sat 11/29UCF at BYU+17.5L21–4146.5L21–41ON
Cincinnati 2025 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Cincinnati vs Nebraska+6.5L17–2052.5L17–20UY
Sat 9/6Cincinnati vs Bowling Green-21.5W34–2046.5W34–20ON
Sat 9/13Cincinnati vs Northwestern State-48.5W70–055.5W70–0OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Cincinnati at Kansas+5.5W37–3455.5W37–34OY
Sat 10/4Cincinnati vs Iowa State-1.5W38–3055.5W38–30OY
Sat 10/11Cincinnati vs UCF-10.0W20–1155.5W20–11UN
Sat 10/18Cincinnati at Oklahoma State-23.5W49–1757.5W49–17OY
Sat 10/25Cincinnati vs Baylor-3.5W41–2068.5W41–20UY
Sat 11/1Cincinnati at Utah+11.5L14–4557.5L14–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Cincinnati vs Arizona-6.5L24–3056.5L24–30UN
Sat 11/22Cincinnati vs BYU+2.5L14–2656.5L14–26UN
Sat 11/29Cincinnati at TCU+3.0L23–4558.5L23–45ON
Fri 1/2Cincinnati vs Navy+7.5L13–3557.5L13–35UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Cincinnati PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Cincinnati
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UCF #88
+0.351
Cincinnati #17
+0.410
Cincinnati Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UCF #104
+0.452
Cincinnati #14
+0.577
Cincinnati Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UCF #54
0.164
Cincinnati #128
0.122
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UCF Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UCF #94
+7.423
Cincinnati #11
+8.119
Cincinnati Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UCF #107
+0.843
Cincinnati #25
+0.900
Cincinnati Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UCF #85
71.6
Cincinnati #64
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Cincinnati Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UCF Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UCF
4.2
Cincinnati
-1.3
Offense Rating
UCF
17.6
Cincinnati
13.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UCF
13.4
Cincinnati
15.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Cincinnati Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UCF #83
1.00
Cincinnati #49
1.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UCF #89
0.75
Cincinnati #43
0.25
Cincinnati +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Cincinnati Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UCF #1
54.9
Cincinnati #1
65.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UCF #98
27.8
Cincinnati #65
21.8
Cincinnati +10.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Cincinnati
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Cincinnati
94.5 — 3.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Cincinnati won by 9
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Cincinnati. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UCF
Scott Frost #1
19–7 (73%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Steve Cooper Yr 1 #1
DC Alex Grinch Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield #1
8–16 (33%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Brad Glenn Yr 3 #1
DC Tyson Veidt Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself