Sat, Oct 18 2025
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Bright House Networks Stadium
Orlando, FL
·
Turf
·
44,206 cap
West Virginia✈ 766 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
UCF
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
UCF entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
UCF wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
UCF wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
UCF -6.5
O/U 46.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
West Virginia 2025 Schedule
West Virginia's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | West Virginia vs Robert Morris | -40.0W45–3 | 56.5 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | West Virginia at Ohio | -3.5L10–17 | 58.5 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | West Virginia vs Pittsburgh | +6.5W31–24 | 54.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | West Virginia at Kansas | +12.5L10–41 | 54.5 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | West Virginia vs Utah | +13.5L14–48 | 46.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
| Fri 10/3 | West Virginia at BYU | +19.5L24–38 | 46.5 | L24–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | West Virginia at UCF | +6.5L13–45 | 46.5 | L13–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | West Virginia vs TCU | +16.5L17–23 | 55.5 | L17–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | West Virginia at Houston | +13.5W45–35 | 48.5 | W45–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | West Virginia vs Colorado | -6.5W29–22 | 51.5 | W29–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | West Virginia at Arizona State | +10.0L23–25 | 46.5 | L23–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/29 | West Virginia vs Texas Tech | +24.5L0–49 | 53.5 | L0–49 | U | N |
UCF 2025 Schedule
UCF's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | UCF vs Jacksonville State | -16.5W17–10 | 53.5 | W17–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | UCF vs North Carolina A&T | -38.0W68–7 | 51.0 | W68–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | UCF vs North Carolina | -7.0W34–9 | 46.5 | W34–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | UCF at Kansas State | +5.5L20–34 | 48.5 | L20–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | UCF vs Kansas | +4.0L20–27 | 53.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | UCF at Cincinnati | +10.0L11–20 | 55.5 | L11–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | UCF vs West Virginia | -6.5W45–13 | 46.5 | W45–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | UCF at Baylor | +3.0L3–30 | 58.5 | L3–30 | U | N |
| Fri 11/7 | UCF vs Houston | -1.5L27–30 | 47.5 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | UCF at Texas Tech | +24.5L9–48 | 48.5 | L9–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | UCF vs Oklahoma State | -13.5W17–14 | 47.5 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | UCF at BYU | +17.5L21–41 | 46.5 | L21–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UCF Edge
UCF +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UCF Edge
UCF +17.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UCF
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
UCF
95.0 — 3.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UCF won by 32
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on UCF with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Rich Rodriguez #1
60–26 (70%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rich Rodriguez
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Alley
Yr 1
#1
UCF
Scott Frost #1
19–7 (73%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Steve Cooper
Yr 1
#1
DC
Alex Grinch
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓