Jacksonville State at UCF Week 1 College Football Matchup Jacksonville State at UCF Matchup - Week 1
Thu, Aug 28 2025 · Week 1 · 🏟 Bright House Networks Stadium Orlando, FL · Turf · 44,206 cap
Jacksonville State✈ 450 mi+1 hr TZ
10 17
Final
UCF
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Jacksonville State
20
UCF
32
P&R Line UCF -11.5
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 86 High
Vegas UCF -16.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
UCF -16.5
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Jacksonville State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Jacksonville State 2025 Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Jacksonville State at UCF+16.5L10–1753.5L10–17UY
Sat 9/6Jacksonville State vs Liberty+6.0W34–2450.5W34–24OY
Sat 9/13Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern+3.0L34–4159.0L34–41ON
Sat 9/20Jacksonville State vs Murray State-35.5W45–1060.5W45–10UN
Sat 9/27Jacksonville State at Southern Miss+4.5L25–4255.5L25–42ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston-7.0W29–2753.5W29–27ON
Wed 10/15Jacksonville State vs Delaware+3.0W38–2555.5W38–25OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/29Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee-4.5W24–2154.0W24–21UN
Sat 11/8Jacksonville State at UTEP-1.5W30–2746.5W30–27OY
Sat 11/15Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State+3.5W35–2656.5W35–26OY
Sat 11/22Jacksonville State at Florida International+2.5L21–2755.5L21–27UN
Sat 11/29Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky+1.5W37–3456.5W37–34OY
Fri 12/5Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State+3.0L15–1962.5L15–19UN
Tue 12/16Jacksonville State vs Troy-3.0W17–1347.5W17–13UY
UCF 2025 Schedule
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.5W17–1053.5W17–10UN
Sat 9/6UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.0W68–751.0W68–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20UCF vs North Carolina-7.0W34–946.5W34–9UY
Sat 9/27UCF at Kansas State+5.5L20–3448.5L20–34ON
Sat 10/4UCF vs Kansas+4.0L20–2753.5L20–27UN
Sat 10/11UCF at Cincinnati+10.0L11–2055.5L11–20UY
Sat 10/18UCF vs West Virginia-6.5W45–1346.5W45–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1UCF at Baylor+3.0L3–3058.5L3–30UN
Fri 11/7UCF vs Houston-1.5L27–3047.5L27–30ON
Sat 11/15UCF at Texas Tech+24.5L9–4848.5L9–48ON
Sat 11/22UCF vs Oklahoma State-13.5W17–1447.5W17–14UN
Sat 11/29UCF at BYU+17.5L21–4146.5L21–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Jacksonville State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Jacksonville State #61
+0.305
UCF #88
+0.297
Jacksonville State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #102
+0.343
UCF #104
+0.423
UCF Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #40
0.170
UCF #54
0.164
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Jacksonville State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #65
+7.254
UCF #94
+7.276
UCF Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Jacksonville State #52
+0.874
UCF #107
+0.812
Jacksonville State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Jacksonville State #80
71.4
UCF #85
71.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Jacksonville State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UCF Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Jacksonville State
-2.7
UCF
4.2
Offense Rating
Jacksonville State
14.4
UCF
17.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Jacksonville State
17.1
UCF
13.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Jacksonville State #60
0.00
UCF #83
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Jacksonville State #28
0.00
UCF #89
0.00
Jacksonville State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Jacksonville State #1
0.0
UCF #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Jacksonville State #54
0.0
UCF #98
0.0
Jacksonville State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UCF, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Jacksonville State
Charles Kelly #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Clint Trickett Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Williams Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UCF
Scott Frost #1
19–7 (73%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Steve Cooper Yr 1 #1
DC Alex Grinch Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself