Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors UConn,
while Game Control favors Buffalo.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
71.6%
UConn wins
Solid
Game Control
49.4%
Buffalo wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
UConn -6
O/U 44.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UConn
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Buffalo 2024 Schedule
Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Buffalo vs Lafayette | -3.5W30–13 | 45.5 | W30–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Buffalo at Missouri | +34.5L0–38 | 53.5 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Buffalo vs Massachusetts | -3.5W34–3 | 45.5 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Buffalo at Northern Illinois | +13.0W23–20 | 42.5 | W23–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Buffalo at UConn | +6.0L3–47 | 44.5 | L3–47 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Buffalo vs Toledo | +10.5W30–15 | 44.5 | W30–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Buffalo vs Western Michigan | +1.0L41–48 | 49.5 | L41–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Buffalo at Ohio | +4.0L16–47 | 46.5 | L16–47 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Buffalo at Akron | +1.0W41–30 | 49.0 | W41–30 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/12 | Buffalo vs Ball State | -3.5W51–48 | 55.5 | W51–48 | O | N |
| Wed 11/20 | Buffalo at Eastern Michigan | +1.0W37–20 | 53.5 | W37–20 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/26 | Buffalo vs Kent State | -23.5W43–7 | 50.5 | W43–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 1/4 | Buffalo vs Liberty | -4.5W26–7 | 50.5 | W26–7 | U | Y |
UConn 2024 Schedule
UConn's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | UConn at Maryland | +19.0L7–50 | 45.5 | L7–50 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | UConn vs Merrimack | -14.5W63–17 | 44.5 | W63–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | UConn at Duke | +17.5L21–26 | 46.5 | L21–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | UConn vs Florida Atlantic | -1.0W48–14 | 46.0 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | UConn vs Buffalo | -6.0W47–3 | 44.5 | W47–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | UConn vs Temple | -17.5W29–20 | 49.0 | W29–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | UConn vs Wake Forest | +2.5L20–23 | 55.5 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | UConn vs Rice | -6.5W17–10 | 47.0 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/1 | UConn vs Georgia State | -7.0W34–27 | 48.0 | W34–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | UConn at UAB | -7.5W31–23 | 54.0 | W31–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | UConn at Syracuse | +10.0L24–31 | 53.0 | L24–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | UConn at Massachusetts | -9.5W47–42 | 49.5 | W47–42 | O | N |
| Sat 12/28 | UConn vs North Carolina | +2.0W27–14 | 53.5 | W27–14 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UConn
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UConn Edge
UConn +1.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +0.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UConn
4 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
UConn
87.7 — 5.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
UConn won by 44
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Buffalo
Pete Lembo #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Dave Patenaude
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Bowen
Yr 1
#1
UConn
Jim L. Mora #1
9–16 (36%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Gordon Sammis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Matt Brock
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓