Matchup Prediction
UConn
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
UConn entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
UConn wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
UConn wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
UConn -6.5
O/U 47.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UConn
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Rice 2024 Schedule
Rice's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Rice vs Sam Houston | -9.5L14–34 | 49.0 | L14–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Rice vs Texas Southern | -30.0W69–7 | 52.5 | W69–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Rice at Houston | +3.5L7–33 | 43.5 | L7–33 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Rice at Army | +7.0L14–37 | 44.0 | L14–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Rice vs Charlotte | -4.0L20–21 | 48.0 | L20–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Rice vs UTSA | +3.5W29–27 | 51.0 | W29–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Rice at Tulane | +21.5L10–24 | 53.5 | L10–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Rice at UConn | +6.5L10–17 | 47.0 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Rice vs Navy | +12.5W24–10 | 49.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/8 | Rice at Memphis | +7.5L20–27 | 50.5 | L20–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Rice at UAB | -7.0L14–40 | 52.0 | L14–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Rice vs South Florida | +5.5W35–28 | 53.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
UConn 2024 Schedule
UConn's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | UConn at Maryland | +19.0L7–50 | 45.5 | L7–50 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | UConn vs Merrimack | -14.5W63–17 | 44.5 | W63–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | UConn at Duke | +17.5L21–26 | 46.5 | L21–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | UConn vs Florida Atlantic | -1.0W48–14 | 46.0 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | UConn vs Buffalo | -6.0W47–3 | 44.5 | W47–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | UConn vs Temple | -17.5W29–20 | 49.0 | W29–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | UConn vs Wake Forest | +2.5L20–23 | 55.5 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | UConn vs Rice | -6.5W17–10 | 47.0 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/1 | UConn vs Georgia State | -7.0W34–27 | 48.0 | W34–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | UConn at UAB | -7.5W31–23 | 54.0 | W31–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | UConn at Syracuse | +10.0L24–31 | 53.0 | L24–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | UConn at Massachusetts | -9.5W47–42 | 49.5 | W47–42 | O | N |
| Sat 12/28 | UConn vs North Carolina | +2.0W27–14 | 53.5 | W27–14 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UConn
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UConn
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UConn
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UConn Edge
UConn +1.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UConn Edge
UConn +14.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UConn
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
UConn
36.9 — 34.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UConn won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on UConn with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Rice
Mike Bloomgren #1
22–46 (32%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Marques Tuiasosopo
Yr 3
#1
DC
Brian Smith
Yr 3
#1
UConn
Jim L. Mora #1
9–16 (36%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Gordon Sammis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Matt Brock
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓