Arkansas State at Bowling Green Week 1 College Football Matchup Arkansas State at Bowling Green Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Dec 27 2024 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Hancock Whitney Stadium Mobile, AL · Turf · 25,000 cap
Arkansas State✈ 334 miSame TZ Bowling Green✈ 286 mi-1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
38 31
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Arkansas State
24
Bowling Green
30
P&R Line Bowling Green -6.5
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Bowling Green -10.5 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
76%
Bowling Green wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Bowling Green -10.5
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Bowling Green · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Bowling Green 2nd straight Home Game
Arkansas State 2024 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas-18.5
Sat 9/7Arkansas State vs Tulsa-9.5W28–2465.5W28–24UN
Sat 9/14Arkansas State at Michigan+22.0L18–2847.5L18–28UY
Sat 9/21Arkansas State at Iowa State+20.5L7–5252.0L7–52ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arkansas State vs South Alabama+2.5W18–1662.5W18–16UY
Sat 10/12Arkansas State at Texas State+13.5L9–4166.0L9–41UN
Sat 10/19Arkansas State at Southern Miss-7.0W44–2857.0W44–28OY
Sat 10/26Arkansas State vs Troy-8.5W34–3150.0W34–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Arkansas State at Louisiana+14.0L19–5560.0L19–55ON
Sat 11/16Arkansas State at Georgia State+2.5W27–2060.0W27–20UY
Sat 11/23Arkansas State vs UL Monroe-3.0W28–2151.5W28–21UY
Sat 11/30Arkansas State vs Old Dominion+5.5L32–4058.5L32–40ON
Thu 12/26Arkansas State vs Bowling Green+10.5W38–3154.5W38–31OY
Bowling Green 2024 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Bowling Green vs Fordham-15.5W41–1760.5W41–17UY
Sat 9/7Bowling Green at Penn State+35.5L27–3451.5L27–34OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Bowling Green at Texas A&M+21.0L20–2650.5L20–26UY
Sat 9/28Bowling Green vs Old Dominion-11.0L27–3051.5L27–30ON
Sat 10/5Bowling Green at Akron-17.0W27–2048.5W27–20UN
Sat 10/12Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois-3.0L7–1746.5L7–17UN
Sat 10/19Bowling Green vs Kent State-24.0W27–654.5W27–6UN
Sat 10/26Bowling Green at Toledo+1.5W41–2647.5W41–26OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Bowling Green at Central Michigan-14.5W23–1347.5W23–13UN
Tue 11/12Bowling Green vs Western Michigan-9.5W31–1357.5W31–13UY
Sat 11/23Bowling Green at Ball State-12.5W38–1354.5W38–13UY
Fri 11/29Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)-3.0L12–2837.5L12–28ON
Thu 12/26Bowling Green vs Arkansas State-10.5L31–3854.5L31–38ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Bowling Green PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Bowling Green
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Bowling Green
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Bowling Green
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Arkansas State #81
+0.297
Bowling Green #53
+0.521
Bowling Green Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #90
+0.323
Bowling Green #53
+0.632
Bowling Green Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #80
0.152
Bowling Green #73
0.157
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Bowling Green Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #63
+7.429
Bowling Green #77
+8.462
Bowling Green Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Arkansas State #91
+0.786
Bowling Green #68
+0.905
Bowling Green Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Arkansas State #104
72.4
Bowling Green #68
70.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Bowling Green Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Bowling Green Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Arkansas State
-18.1
Bowling Green
-9.7
Offense Rating
Arkansas State
6.3
Bowling Green
10.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Arkansas State
24.3
Bowling Green
20.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Arkansas State #113
0.73
Bowling Green #92
0.73
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Arkansas State #115
1.55
Bowling Green #43
0.73
Arkansas State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Bowling Green Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Arkansas State #1
32.1
Bowling Green #1
55.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Arkansas State #94
48.8
Bowling Green #43
28.6
Bowling Green +23.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Bowling Green with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
11–26 (30%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Keith Heckendorf Yr 3 #1
DC Rob Harley Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
20–35 (36%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Greg Nosal Yr 2 #1
DC Sammy Lawanson Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself