Fri, Dec 27 2024
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Hancock Whitney Stadium
Mobile, AL
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
Arkansas State✈ 334 miSame TZ
Bowling Green✈ 286 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Bowling Green wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Bowling Green -10.5
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Bowling Green
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2024 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas | -18.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Arkansas State vs Tulsa | -9.5W28–24 | 65.5 | W28–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Arkansas State at Michigan | +22.0L18–28 | 47.5 | L18–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Arkansas State at Iowa State | +20.5L7–52 | 52.0 | L7–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Arkansas State vs South Alabama | +2.5W18–16 | 62.5 | W18–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Arkansas State at Texas State | +13.5L9–41 | 66.0 | L9–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Arkansas State at Southern Miss | -7.0W44–28 | 57.0 | W44–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Arkansas State vs Troy | -8.5W34–31 | 50.0 | W34–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Arkansas State at Louisiana | +14.0L19–55 | 60.0 | L19–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Arkansas State at Georgia State | +2.5W27–20 | 60.0 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Arkansas State vs UL Monroe | -3.0W28–21 | 51.5 | W28–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Arkansas State vs Old Dominion | +5.5L32–40 | 58.5 | L32–40 | O | N |
| Thu 12/26 | Arkansas State vs Bowling Green | +10.5W38–31 | 54.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
Bowling Green 2024 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Bowling Green vs Fordham | -15.5W41–17 | 60.5 | W41–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Bowling Green at Penn State | +35.5L27–34 | 51.5 | L27–34 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Bowling Green at Texas A&M | +21.0L20–26 | 50.5 | L20–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Bowling Green vs Old Dominion | -11.0L27–30 | 51.5 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Bowling Green at Akron | -17.0W27–20 | 48.5 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois | -3.0L7–17 | 46.5 | L7–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Bowling Green vs Kent State | -24.0W27–6 | 54.5 | W27–6 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Bowling Green at Toledo | +1.5W41–26 | 47.5 | W41–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Bowling Green at Central Michigan | -14.5W23–13 | 47.5 | W23–13 | U | N |
| Tue 11/12 | Bowling Green vs Western Michigan | -9.5W31–13 | 57.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Bowling Green at Ball State | -12.5W38–13 | 54.5 | W38–13 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Bowling Green vs Miami (OH) | -3.0L12–28 | 37.5 | L12–28 | O | N |
| Thu 12/26 | Bowling Green vs Arkansas State | -10.5L31–38 | 54.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Bowling Green
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Bowling Green
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Bowling Green
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Bowling Green Edge
Bowling Green +23.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Bowling Green with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
11–26 (30%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 3
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 3
#1
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
20–35 (36%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Greg Nosal
Yr 2
#1
DC
Sammy Lawanson
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

