Wed, Nov 13 2024
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Doyt Perry Stadium
Bowling Green, OH
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
Western Michigan✈ 119 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Western Michigan,
while Game Control favors Bowling Green.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Western Michigan wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Bowling Green wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Bowling Green -9.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Bowling Green
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Western Michigan 2024 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Western Michigan at Wisconsin | +24.0L14–28 | 57.0 | L14–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Western Michigan at Ohio State | +37.5L0–56 | 54.5 | L0–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Western Michigan vs Bethune-Cookman | -33.5W59–31 | 54.5 | W59–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Western Michigan at Marshall | +3.5L20–27 | 53.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Western Michigan at Ball State | -10.0W45–42 | 57.5 | W45–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Western Michigan vs Akron | -9.5W34–24 | 48.5 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Western Michigan at Buffalo | -1.0W48–41 | 49.5 | W48–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Western Michigan vs Kent State | -19.0W52–21 | 61.0 | W52–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/6 | Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois | +2.5L28–42 | 51.5 | L28–42 | O | N |
| Tue 11/12 | Western Michigan at Bowling Green | +9.5L13–31 | 57.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Tue 11/19 | Western Michigan at Central Michigan | -6.0L14–16 | 56.0 | L14–16 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan | -6.5W26–18 | 56.5 | W26–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/14 | Western Michigan vs South Alabama | +6.0L23–30 | 53.5 | L23–30 | U | N |
Bowling Green 2024 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Bowling Green vs Fordham | -15.5W41–17 | 60.5 | W41–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Bowling Green at Penn State | +35.5L27–34 | 51.5 | L27–34 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Bowling Green at Texas A&M | +21.0L20–26 | 50.5 | L20–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Bowling Green vs Old Dominion | -11.0L27–30 | 51.5 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Bowling Green at Akron | -17.0W27–20 | 48.5 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois | -3.0L7–17 | 46.5 | L7–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Bowling Green vs Kent State | -24.0W27–6 | 54.5 | W27–6 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Bowling Green at Toledo | +1.5W41–26 | 47.5 | W41–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Bowling Green at Central Michigan | -14.5W23–13 | 47.5 | W23–13 | U | N |
| Tue 11/12 | Bowling Green vs Western Michigan | -9.5W31–13 | 57.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Bowling Green at Ball State | -12.5W38–13 | 54.5 | W38–13 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Bowling Green vs Miami (OH) | -3.0L12–28 | 37.5 | L12–28 | O | N |
| Thu 12/26 | Bowling Green vs Arkansas State | -10.5L31–38 | 54.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Bowling Green
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +1.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Bowling Green Edge
Bowling Green +9.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Bowling Green
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Bowling Green
68.6 — 12.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Bowling Green won by 18
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Western Michigan
Lance Taylor #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Walt Bell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Scott Power
Yr 1
#1
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
20–35 (36%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Greg Nosal
Yr 2
#1
DC
Sammy Lawanson
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓