Sat, Oct 5 2024
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Summa Field at InfoCision Stadium
Akron, OH
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Bowling Green✈ 111 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Bowling Green
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Bowling Green entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Bowling Green wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Bowling Green wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Bowling Green -17
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Bowling Green
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Bowling Green 2024 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Bowling Green vs Fordham | -15.5W41–17 | 60.5 | W41–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Bowling Green at Penn State | +35.5L27–34 | 51.5 | L27–34 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Bowling Green at Texas A&M | +21.0L20–26 | 50.5 | L20–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Bowling Green vs Old Dominion | -11.0L27–30 | 51.5 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Bowling Green at Akron | -17.0W27–20 | 48.5 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois | -3.0L7–17 | 46.5 | L7–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Bowling Green vs Kent State | -24.0W27–6 | 54.5 | W27–6 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Bowling Green at Toledo | +1.5W41–26 | 47.5 | W41–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Bowling Green at Central Michigan | -14.5W23–13 | 47.5 | W23–13 | U | N |
| Tue 11/12 | Bowling Green vs Western Michigan | -9.5W31–13 | 57.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Bowling Green at Ball State | -12.5W38–13 | 54.5 | W38–13 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Bowling Green vs Miami (OH) | -3.0L12–28 | 37.5 | L12–28 | O | N |
| Thu 12/26 | Bowling Green vs Arkansas State | -10.5L31–38 | 54.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
Akron 2024 Schedule
Akron's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Akron at Ohio State | +50.5L6–52 | 58.5 | L6–52 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Akron at Rutgers | +24.5L17–49 | 41.5 | L17–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Akron vs Colgate | -13.5W31–20 | 48.5 | W31–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Akron at South Carolina | +25.0L7–50 | 42.0 | L7–50 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Akron at Ohio | +8.5L10–30 | 46.0 | L10–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Akron vs Bowling Green | +17.0L20–27 | 48.5 | L20–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Akron at Western Michigan | +9.5L24–34 | 48.5 | L24–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Akron vs Eastern Michigan | +2.5W25–21 | 50.5 | W25–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Akron vs Buffalo | -1.0L30–41 | 49.0 | L30–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/13 | Akron at Northern Illinois | +14.0L16–29 | 43.5 | L16–29 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/19 | Akron at Kent State | -10.5W38–17 | 49.0 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/26 | Akron vs Toledo | +9.5W21–14 | 50.5 | W21–14 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Bowling Green
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Bowling Green
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Bowling Green
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Bowling Green Edge
Bowling Green +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Bowling Green Edge
Bowling Green +19.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Akron
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Bowling Green
19.5 — 51.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Bowling Green won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Bowling Green with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
20–35 (36%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Greg Nosal
Yr 2
#1
DC
Sammy Lawanson
Yr 2
#1
Akron
Joe Moorhead #1
4–20 (17%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Taylor Housewright
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Tibesar
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

