Sat, Oct 19 2024
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Doyt Perry Stadium
Bowling Green, OH
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
Kent State✈ 121 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Bowling Green
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Bowling Green entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Bowling Green wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Bowling Green wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Bowling Green -24
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Bowling Green
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kent State 2024 Schedule
Kent State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Kent State at Pittsburgh | +23.5L24–55 | 55.5 | L24–55 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Kent State vs St. Francis (PA) | -17.5L17–23 | 49.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Kent State at Tennessee | +49.5L0–71 | 61.5 | L0–71 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Kent State at Penn State | +49.0L0–56 | 58.0 | L0–56 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Kent State vs Eastern Michigan | +14.0L33–52 | 46.0 | L33–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Kent State vs Ball State | +3.0L35–37 | 58.0 | L35–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Kent State at Bowling Green | +24.0L6–27 | 54.5 | L6–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Kent State at Western Michigan | +19.0L21–52 | 61.0 | L21–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/6 | Kent State vs Ohio | +20.5L0–41 | 53.5 | L0–41 | U | N |
| Wed 11/13 | Kent State at Miami (OH) | +31.0L7–34 | 47.5 | L7–34 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/19 | Kent State vs Akron | +10.5L17–38 | 49.0 | L17–38 | O | N |
| Tue 11/26 | Kent State at Buffalo | +23.5L7–43 | 50.5 | L7–43 | U | N |
Bowling Green 2024 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Bowling Green vs Fordham | -15.5W41–17 | 60.5 | W41–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Bowling Green at Penn State | +35.5L27–34 | 51.5 | L27–34 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Bowling Green at Texas A&M | +21.0L20–26 | 50.5 | L20–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Bowling Green vs Old Dominion | -11.0L27–30 | 51.5 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Bowling Green at Akron | -17.0W27–20 | 48.5 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois | -3.0L7–17 | 46.5 | L7–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Bowling Green vs Kent State | -24.0W27–6 | 54.5 | W27–6 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Bowling Green at Toledo | +1.5W41–26 | 47.5 | W41–26 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Bowling Green at Central Michigan | -14.5W23–13 | 47.5 | W23–13 | U | N |
| Tue 11/12 | Bowling Green vs Western Michigan | -9.5W31–13 | 57.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Bowling Green at Ball State | -12.5W38–13 | 54.5 | W38–13 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Bowling Green vs Miami (OH) | -3.0L12–28 | 37.5 | L12–28 | O | N |
| Thu 12/26 | Bowling Green vs Arkansas State | -10.5L31–38 | 54.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Bowling Green
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Bowling Green
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Bowling Green
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Bowling Green Edge
Bowling Green +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Bowling Green Edge
Bowling Green +35.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Bowling Green
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Bowling Green
78.9 — 8.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Bowling Green won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Bowling Green with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kent State
Kenni Burns #1
1–11 (8%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Mark Carney
Yr 1
#1
DC
David Duggan
Yr 2
#1
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
20–35 (36%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Greg Nosal
Yr 2
#1
DC
Sammy Lawanson
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

