Kent State at Bowling Green Week 8 College Football Matchup Kent State at Bowling Green Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 19 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 Doyt Perry Stadium Bowling Green, OH · Turf · 24,000 cap
Kent State✈ 121 miSame TZ
6 27
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kent State
12
BGSU -24
Bowling Green
42
P&R Line Bowling Green -30
P&R Total O/U 53
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Bowling Green -24 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Bowling Green has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Bowling Green entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Bowling Green wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Bowling Green wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Bowling Green -24
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Bowling Green · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Bowling Green 2nd straight Home Game
Kent State 2024 Schedule
Kent State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kent State at Pittsburgh+23.5L24–5555.5L24–55ON
Sat 9/7Kent State vs St. Francis (PA)-17.5L17–2349.5L17–23UN
Sat 9/14Kent State at Tennessee+49.5L0–7161.5L0–71ON
Sat 9/21Kent State at Penn State+49.0L0–5658.0L0–56UN
Sat 9/28Kent State vs Eastern Michigan+14.0L33–5246.0L33–52ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Kent State vs Ball State+3.0L35–3758.0L35–37OY
Sat 10/19Kent State at Bowling Green+24.0L6–2754.5L6–27UY
Sat 10/26Kent State at Western Michigan+19.0L21–5261.0L21–52ON
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/6Kent State vs Ohio+20.5L0–4153.5L0–41UN
Wed 11/13Kent State at Miami (OH)+31.0L7–3447.5L7–34UY
Tue 11/19Kent State vs Akron+10.5L17–3849.0L17–38ON
Tue 11/26Kent State at Buffalo+23.5L7–4350.5L7–43UN
Bowling Green 2024 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Bowling Green vs Fordham-15.5W41–1760.5W41–17UY
Sat 9/7Bowling Green at Penn State+35.5L27–3451.5L27–34OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Bowling Green at Texas A&M+21.0L20–2650.5L20–26UY
Sat 9/28Bowling Green vs Old Dominion-11.0L27–3051.5L27–30ON
Sat 10/5Bowling Green at Akron-17.0W27–2048.5W27–20UN
Sat 10/12Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois-3.0L7–1746.5L7–17UN
Sat 10/19Bowling Green vs Kent State-24.0W27–654.5W27–6UN
Sat 10/26Bowling Green at Toledo+1.5W41–2647.5W41–26OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Bowling Green at Central Michigan-14.5W23–1347.5W23–13UN
Tue 11/12Bowling Green vs Western Michigan-9.5W31–1357.5W31–13UY
Sat 11/23Bowling Green at Ball State-12.5W38–1354.5W38–13UY
Fri 11/29Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)-3.0L12–2837.5L12–28ON
Thu 12/26Bowling Green vs Arkansas State-10.5L31–3854.5L31–38ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Bowling Green PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Bowling Green
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Bowling Green
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Bowling Green
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kent State #131
+0.134
Bowling Green #53
+0.563
Bowling Green Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kent State #109
+0.251
Bowling Green #53
+0.691
Bowling Green Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kent State #127
0.123
Bowling Green #73
0.157
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Bowling Green Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kent State #130
+6.355
Bowling Green #77
+8.177
Bowling Green Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kent State #134
+0.681
Bowling Green #68
+0.926
Bowling Green Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kent State #111
72.8
Bowling Green #68
70.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Bowling Green Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Bowling Green Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kent State
-16.7
Bowling Green
-9.7
Offense Rating
Kent State
7.5
Bowling Green
10.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kent State
24.3
Bowling Green
20.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Bowling Green Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kent State #134
0.00
Bowling Green #92
0.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kent State #134
4.60
Bowling Green #43
1.20
Bowling Green +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Bowling Green Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kent State #1
6.9
Bowling Green #1
42.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kent State #140
84.2
Bowling Green #43
36.5
Bowling Green +35.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Bowling Green
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Bowling Green
78.9 — 8.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Bowling Green won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Bowling Green with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kent State
Kenni Burns #1
1–11 (8%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Mark Carney Yr 1 #1
DC David Duggan Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
20–35 (36%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Greg Nosal Yr 2 #1
DC Sammy Lawanson Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself