Bowling Green at Central Michigan Week 11 College Football Matchup Bowling Green at Central Michigan Matchup - Week 11
Wed, Nov 6 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Kelly/Shorts Stadium Mount Pleasant, MI · Turf · 32,885 cap
Bowling Green✈ 162 miSame TZ
23 13
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Bowling Green
30
CMU +14.5
Central Michigan
20
P&R Line Bowling Green -10
P&R Total O/U 49
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Bowling Green -14.5 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Central Michigan, while Game Control favors Bowling Green. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Central Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Bowling Green wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Bowling Green -14.5
O/U 47.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Bowling Green · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Central Michigan Coming off BYE 🛋 Bowling Green Coming off BYE
Bowling Green 2024 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Bowling Green vs Fordham-15.5W41–1760.5W41–17UY
Sat 9/7Bowling Green at Penn State+35.5L27–3451.5L27–34OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Bowling Green at Texas A&M+21.0L20–2650.5L20–26UY
Sat 9/28Bowling Green vs Old Dominion-11.0L27–3051.5L27–30ON
Sat 10/5Bowling Green at Akron-17.0W27–2048.5W27–20UN
Sat 10/12Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois-3.0L7–1746.5L7–17UN
Sat 10/19Bowling Green vs Kent State-24.0W27–654.5W27–6UN
Sat 10/26Bowling Green at Toledo+1.5W41–2647.5W41–26OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Bowling Green at Central Michigan-14.5W23–1347.5W23–13UN
Tue 11/12Bowling Green vs Western Michigan-9.5W31–1357.5W31–13UY
Sat 11/23Bowling Green at Ball State-12.5W38–1354.5W38–13UY
Fri 11/29Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)-3.0L12–2837.5L12–28ON
Thu 12/26Bowling Green vs Arkansas State-10.5L31–3854.5L31–38ON
Central Michigan 2024 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Central Michigan vs Central Connecticut-33.5W66–1054.5W66–10OY
Sat 9/7Central Michigan vs Florida International-3.5L16–5251.5L16–52ON
Sat 9/14Central Michigan at Illinois+21.5L9–3049.5L9–30UY
Sat 9/21Central Michigan vs Ball State-6.5W37–3451.0W37–34ON
Sat 9/28Central Michigan vs San Diego State-2.5W22–2147.5W22–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Central Michigan vs Ohio+3.0L25–2750.5L25–27OY
Sat 10/19Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan+3.5L34–3852.5L34–38ON
Sat 10/26Central Michigan at Miami (OH)+10.5L7–4648.5L7–46ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Central Michigan vs Bowling Green+14.5L13–2347.5L13–23UY
Tue 11/12Central Michigan at Toledo+15.0L10–3752.5L10–37UN
Tue 11/19Central Michigan vs Western Michigan+6.0W16–1456.0W16–14UY
Sat 11/30Central Michigan at Northern Illinois+16.5L16–2441.5L16–24UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Bowling Green PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Bowling Green
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Bowling Green #53
+0.427
Central Michigan #96
+0.274
Bowling Green Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #53
+0.562
Central Michigan #129
+0.158
Bowling Green Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #73
0.157
Central Michigan #45
0.176
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Central Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Bowling Green #77
+7.440
Central Michigan #80
+7.291
Bowling Green Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Bowling Green #68
+0.825
Central Michigan #115
+0.763
Bowling Green Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Bowling Green #68
70.8
Central Michigan #113
72.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Bowling Green Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Central Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Bowling Green
-9.7
Central Michigan
-4.9
Offense Rating
Bowling Green
10.9
Central Michigan
15.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Bowling Green
20.7
Central Michigan
20.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Central Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Bowling Green #92
0.57
Central Michigan #90
0.86
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Bowling Green #43
1.14
Central Michigan #102
2.29
Central Michigan +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Bowling Green Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Bowling Green #1
51.7
Central Michigan #1
27.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Bowling Green #43
29.7
Central Michigan #126
57.5
Bowling Green +24.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
20–35 (36%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Greg Nosal Yr 2 #1
DC Sammy Lawanson Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
29–28 (51%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Jim McElwain Yr 1 #1
DC Robb Akey Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself