Western Michigan at Central Michigan Week 13 College Football Matchup Western Michigan at Central Michigan Matchup - Week 13
Wed, Nov 20 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Kelly/Shorts Stadium Mount Pleasant, MI · Turf · 32,885 cap
Western Michigan✈ 98 miSame TZ
14 16
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Western Michigan
29
Central Michigan
27
P&R Line Western Michigan -2
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Western Michigan -6 · O/U 56.0
Matchup Prediction
Western Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Western Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Western Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Western Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Western Michigan -6
O/U 56.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Western Michigan 2nd straight Road Game
Western Michigan 2024 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Western Michigan at Wisconsin+24.0L14–2857.0L14–28UY
Sat 9/7Western Michigan at Ohio State+37.5L0–5654.5L0–56ON
Sat 9/14Western Michigan vs Bethune-Cookman-33.5W59–3154.5W59–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Western Michigan at Marshall+3.5L20–2753.5L20–27UN
Sat 10/5Western Michigan at Ball State-10.0W45–4257.5W45–42ON
Sat 10/12Western Michigan vs Akron-9.5W34–2448.5W34–24OY
Sat 10/19Western Michigan at Buffalo-1.0W48–4149.5W48–41OY
Sat 10/26Western Michigan vs Kent State-19.0W52–2161.0W52–21OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/6Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois+2.5L28–4251.5L28–42ON
Tue 11/12Western Michigan at Bowling Green+9.5L13–3157.5L13–31UN
Tue 11/19Western Michigan at Central Michigan-6.0L14–1656.0L14–16UN
Sat 11/30Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-6.5W26–1856.5W26–18UY
Sat 12/14Western Michigan vs South Alabama+6.0L23–3053.5L23–30UN
Central Michigan 2024 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Central Michigan vs Central Connecticut-33.5W66–1054.5W66–10OY
Sat 9/7Central Michigan vs Florida International-3.5L16–5251.5L16–52ON
Sat 9/14Central Michigan at Illinois+21.5L9–3049.5L9–30UY
Sat 9/21Central Michigan vs Ball State-6.5W37–3451.0W37–34ON
Sat 9/28Central Michigan vs San Diego State-2.5W22–2147.5W22–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Central Michigan vs Ohio+3.0L25–2750.5L25–27OY
Sat 10/19Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan+3.5L34–3852.5L34–38ON
Sat 10/26Central Michigan at Miami (OH)+10.5L7–4648.5L7–46ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Central Michigan vs Bowling Green+14.5L13–2347.5L13–23UY
Tue 11/12Central Michigan at Toledo+15.0L10–3752.5L10–37UN
Tue 11/19Central Michigan vs Western Michigan+6.0W16–1456.0W16–14UY
Sat 11/30Central Michigan at Northern Illinois+16.5L16–2441.5L16–24UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Western Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Western Michigan #43
+0.448
Central Michigan #96
+0.440
Western Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #40
+0.601
Central Michigan #129
+0.481
Western Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #44
0.176
Central Michigan #45
0.176
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Even
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #49
+7.705
Central Michigan #80
+8.198
Central Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Western Michigan #33
+0.852
Central Michigan #115
+0.878
Central Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Western Michigan #22
68.7
Central Michigan #113
72.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Western Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Central Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Western Michigan
-5.3
Central Michigan
-4.9
Offense Rating
Western Michigan
14.5
Central Michigan
15.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Western Michigan
19.9
Central Michigan
20.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Western Michigan #116
1.44
Central Michigan #90
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Michigan #121
1.44
Central Michigan #102
1.89
Western Michigan +0.78
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Western Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Western Michigan #1
42.3
Central Michigan #1
23.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Michigan #82
40.4
Central Michigan #126
62.1
Western Michigan +18.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Central Michigan
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Central Michigan
51.1 — 20.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Central Michigan won by 2
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Western Michigan with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Western Michigan
Lance Taylor #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Walt Bell Yr 1 #1
DC Scott Power Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
29–28 (51%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Jim McElwain Yr 1 #1
DC Robb Akey Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself